East Zaporizhzhia Front (June 12)
Ukraine 
has announced that they liberated the village of Levadne located in East Zaporizhzhia. It is the 5th settlement liberated on the front within the past 3 days
https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1668349588913233921?s=46&t=A5S-z5IJslFoC5SVN0Jodg
$325M presidential draw down authority is about to land. Includes NASAMS missiles and HIMARS ammo, but critically also Bradley and Striker vehicles to replace losses.
So, the missile strike that killed the CoS of the 35th Army is rumoured to have also wounded General Sergei Nyrkov and killed/wounded 20 staff officers. The Nyrkov reference is a bit strange, as Nyrkov was badly wounded last year whilst CoS of the 36th Guards Army and evacuated to Belarus , and as far as I can find there’d been no suggestion he’d returned to field duty.
Suggestions that Ukr have advanced further South East and are currently assaulting a village just north of Volnovakha. They could potentially bypass Volnovakha and push down the road towards Mariupol. Russia supposedly gathering reserves and building a defensive line to halt the threat of this advance. It actually reads like Volnovakha is the last and most southern fortified position in this area, which would suggest Ukr have found and cracked the weak spot in the Russian lines given there are claims elsewhere that Ukr haven’t even reached the main defensive lines as yet… This is , potentially, a gigantic moment in this campaign.
And there still seems little info on the whereabouts and activities of the heavy armoured combined brigades with the bulk of the Leopard II’s. If they suddenly appear on the Volnovakha front and can push on to not-yet-ready ad-hoc defensive positions Mariupol is under severe threat. Though I suspect lack of air support makes the Leopard use more circumspect.
And then there’s the question whether Russia may face a breakout from Kherson City , given the rumours are they’ve stripped the Dnieper lines to send troops north to defend Tokmak and surrounds.
The information flow seems to be about 36 hours behind the on ground events, but most rumoured reports have subsequently been found to be correct.
Russia did indeed launch a counter attack towards Staromylnovka and Makarivka but it was repelled by artillery strikes on an armoured column and forced to withdraw. Ukr were rumoured to have made gains towards Vuhledar only a day or so ago, now they’re well beyond that if the Volnovakha tales are true.
With the time zone differences, sites like France24 live reporting (overnight and early morning for us) are pretty up to date.
Or south east along the T0152 towards Boikivske…or…
I’d be surprised if they’d want a Russian controlled Mariupol deep behind their own lines, and I’ve no idea if they have the sheer manpower to try to close off such a massive “cauldron” . Pure guesswork, but I’d lean towards the aim being to cut the coast at Mariupol and trying to seal off the pocket west of there. If they can also break out of Kherson and cut the lifeline to Crimea that’d be a gigantic result from the spring/summer offensive. But there doesn’t seem to be an obvious defensive line between Mariupol and the Russian border so who knows. If the Russian line collapses somewhere and you can get armoured brigades to conduct mobile attacks before Russia can set a new line, perhaps they do try to go further East. But heavy armour requires heavy supply lines. You don’t want them overlong and stretching through contested territory.
And let’s face it, what do they have ? 50 or so Leopards? It’s not exactly Paulus’ 6th Army. I think US and UK advisers will be warning not to over-extend though. Form a defendable front for winter and wait for the Abrams / F-16’s etc in the next phase.
Different maps of the southern offensive.
Viewed from the other direction.
This thread has a good breakdown of what’s happening.
https://twitter.com/jrt_191/status/1668416807479156736?s=46&t=A5S-z5IJslFoC5SVN0Jodg
The Bradleys included in the $325M package are an important sign. The west has trained and equipped 10 assault units. As trained troops lose their gear, but are healthy to continue fighting, the west will push replacement gear to keep the assault force viable. That may see further Leopard 2s being sent.
It means that Russia will need to kill the crews, not just the vehicles. They’ll just retreat, get a new delivery of vehicles and attack again with more experience.
I’m not for one second suggesting that Ukr never hit something unintended.
But on a day that has revealed a precise destruction of a Russian command centre and Officer corp via artillery, it seems we get a Russian cruise missile impact on a random domestic apartment building in a small town.
Seems highly likely a tragically large number of civilian lives lost. Also probably encapsulates why Ukraine seem to be making gains. Millions of dollars spent , used on a militarily useless target.
https://twitter.com/StateOfUkraine/status/1668456855230660609
Ever since the Kerch Bridge, Russia has been targeting civilian infrastructure. After Belgorod, it intensified with the aim of razing Kyiv, part revenge, but also with the aim of destroying morale.
Oil refinery tank farm is on fire.
https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1668478265613332480?s=46&t=A5S-z5IJslFoC5SVN0Jodg
“But yeah, unfortunately this time we really ■■■■■■ in terms of information. But I assure you we have a lot to show: how M2 destroyed RUA tanks, how Leos survived multiple hits etc”
https://twitter.com/osintua/status/1668489898548920320?s=46&t=A5S-z5IJslFoC5SVN0Jodg
There’s a few photos in that thread, but that comment there caught my eye.
Good thread on the upcoming breaching of fortifications:
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1668482100050141184?s=20
Interesting. I see that someone asked what he meant and the response was “info field” (google translate). So I interpret that as field reconnaisance, prob drones? He does mention that there are lots of mines so perhaps specifically planning/detecting/clearing mines?
I think they are keeping a lot of good work very quiet. That things are going well, but because they are keeping things under wraps it leaves the Russian propaganda as the only information being released.
Vid roundup - War in Ukraine: 12 Jun Report
