Russia invades Ukraine - 4 - from 14 March 2023

In 2014 , an UNGA resolution (passed by 100, 11 against, 58 abstentions) declared the March Crimea referendum to secede from Ukraine invalid.
This gave cover for countries (including Australia) to impose selective sanctions on trade of specified goods with Russia.
A similar approach was followed in regard to the separist regions referendums, with further sanctions against Russia on that account .

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I agree with all of that… AND

Britain, Germany and France can match Russia without raising a sweat. But the US can ■■■■ all over them.

The ONLY hope remaining for Russia is a) Trump or b) China deciding to intervene leveraging their production capacity.

NATO membership is not going to happen while the war is going on, but if a long term bipartisan commitment can be secured from the US then option a) is off the table

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Anything to prevent this would be very helpful

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Too late! Putin’s wedged so far up Trump’s arse that they’ve become symbiotes

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Germany hosts biggest ever air exercise of NATO forces

12 Jun. 2023

Allied air forces began the largest deployment exercise in NATO’s history on Monday (12 June 2023). Twenty-five nations are taking part in the two-week long “Air Defender” exercise, with around 10,000 personnel and 250 aircraft.

Exercise “Air Defender” has been planned for several years. Hosted and led by Germany, it will help ensure NATO air forces are trained and ready to respond together. Most of the aircraft will be stationed on several German air bases. Training missions will primarily take place over the North Sea, the Baltic Sea and Southern Germany. The drills are aimed at boosting interoperability and preparedness to protect against aircraft, drones and missiles attacks on cities and critical infrastructure. Other training events will include supporting ground troops and evacuation missions. Air Defender will run until 23 June.

Today’s “The Australian” had a report from The Times unpaywalled which mentions it is:

expected to cause delays to civilian air traffic in Europe for 11 days …

…the aim is to train forces to swiftly move air reinforcements to Germany, a logistics hub and staging area for NATO should the war in Ukraine or another conflict escalate.

The exercises will include supporting ground troops from the air, air battles against enemy jets and the interception of medium range missiles by fighter bombers. There will also be defensive drills designed to counter enemy submarines and ships in the North Sea…

… Although its planning predates the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it amounts to a clear message of deterrence to President Vladimir Putin…

… at least 800 civilian planes are expected to be diverted each day as a result. German airports have extended their operating hours into the night.

Most of the 2000 flights would be undertaken over the North and the Baltic seas and efforts had been taken to reduce disruption, General Gerhartz said.

He did not rule out delays to departures or arrivals.

Ok so rehearsals are clearly necessary and long overdue. The largest such exercise in NATO’s history is a good first effort.

But to avoid unnecessary inconvenience to civilian air traffic in the rest of Europe and unnecessary death and destruction in Ukraine, perhaps the next rehearsal could be staged over the Black Sea and the areas of Ukraine that have not been annexed by Russia?

That would be a more pointed “clear message of deterrence” and a more realistic rehearsal for actual deployment to the front lines when the war in Ukraine escalates.

It would also avoid reinforcing the daily message that NATO is still afraid to cross the “red line” Russia has drawn over Ukraine’s airspace and the international waters of the Black Sea.

Then there could be exercises over the parts of Ukraine that HAVE been annexed by Russia.

When rehearsals are complete, extend the exercises to the entire 120km security zone inside Russia that will be needed around Ukraine’s borders and then finally, more than a year late:

CLOSE THE SKY

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Although a long way from Ukraine, the Kola Peninsula is home to the Northern Fleet , it has an air base and military bases are being upgraded. Garrisons in the Arctic region deploy troops for Ukraine, Murmansk has established civilian type assistance to Primorsk on the Sea of Azov near Berdyansk.
The mine’s bigger than yours exercises in the North Sea are a show of force, including US warship Gerald Ford’s first visit to the Arctic.

IIRC Ukraine and Russia had a treaty on the Russian military base at Sevastopol, after Khrushchev handed Crimea to Ukraine. Following Russian annexation, Russia invalidated the treaty.
Sevastopol would have a different status from Kaliningrad.

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Sevastopol, along with the rest of Crimea, is internationally recognised as part of Ukraine, and under the Ukrainian legal framework, it is administratively one of two cities with special status (the other being Kyiv). However, it has been occupied by Russia since 27 February 2014, before Russia annexed Crimea on 18 March 2014 and gave it the status of a federal city of Russia. Both Ukraine and Russia consider the city administratively separate from the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the Republic of Crimea, respectively. The city’s population has an ethnic Russian majority and a substantial minority of Ukrainians.

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It seems Delimkhanov is still alive, and Kadyrovs bizarre rant was simply that. A shame.

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Police in Donetsk are being press ganged into being cannon fodder, more pointers to the russians having serious manpower issues right now. Not mobilizing more forces late last year might have been Putin’s fatal mistake of this war.

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Good to see that Ukraine takes care of its Veterans, including the Foreign Fighters

@cossackgundi is Aiden Aslin, the British citizen who was captured by Russian forces in April 2022 in Mariupol. He was sentenced to death on 9 June by authorities of the DPR but they never carried out the sentence or held the public show trials that they were preparing. (They built a mock military jail/court in Mariupol) He was released from russian captivity in a prisoner exchange last September.

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Interesting. Perhaps not as strange a report as I’d thought a few days ago if they’re digging up (perhaps literally!!) those pieces of garbage.

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Hardly surprising. No one wants to give Putin accurate news

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Aren’t those tank shells, not artillery? Looks like APFSDS rounds. Would not want to be loading them into a tank in any case!

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yes, they are APFSDS rounds.

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https://twitter.com/jabuttee/status/1669102223245099008?s=20
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Just imagine what the civilian population on the Russian side of the river is experiencing right now. There’s zero humanitarian efforts. Civilians cannot leave the disaster zone without Russian passports. Ukrainian boats are being shelled if they try to assist.

Water supplies to the south will be wiped out due to the dam being destroyed. Contamination of water is going to be rampant and there won’t be any trucked in supplies because Russia just doesn’t care. If Russia can’t keep their troops healthy, the civilian population will be far far worse.

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Cancel the lease on the new Russian Embassy in Canberra, if you need to get something through Parliament in a hurry…

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