Russia invades Ukraine - 4 - from 14 March 2023

God they’re slack in the HoR.

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Russia probably has a Five Eyes type deal with those friendly Embassies already closely located to PH and the Lodge.
The existing Embassy building is on a main thoroughfare, with parking spaces nearly always filled opposite the entrance.

Yes, good observation. Looks like the state of their ammunition all round is terrible.

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That last comment… :slight_smile:

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Lol GOT Reference (Lady Olenna Tyrell)

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Presumably delivered without inspection due to corruption and demoralization.

That HAS to be a pile of rejects following delivery. Nobody could take them further in the direction of loading them into a tank than taking them out of the boxes they were delivered in.

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Also pointer to:

  1. Having serious internal “civil unrest” problems soon. Reports of wives organizing to help them desert confirm recent Katz video saying that the regime had to avoid mobilizing police and internal security forces who were the only people privileged to avoid conscription as the regime depends on them to preserve itself from the people.

  2. Suggests real desperation about offensive in Donetsk (including counter offensive now north as well as south of Bakhmut and perhaps counter offensive around Vuldehar).

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Prigozhin gathered another meeting to discuss the current state of events, said the Ukrainian offensive is moving competently and carefully, not enough is being done to stop them.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1668645494283804679?s=20

(The video is worth watching)

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AD results overnight.
Seems that most of the attacks are focusing on Odessa at the moment.

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According to Rybar (may or may not be true)
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Also part 6 of previous video now translated.


@igorsushko

Part 6: Prigozhin expects civil war, revolutions, and significant loss of Russian territory if Russia’s military leadership is not immediately replaced. This is the translated conclusion of the 1 hour interview.

7’27"

Starts with Bakhmut. Ends as described above. Hopes for:

  1. Mass media stops lying
  2. Public sees the catastrophe
  3. Political leadership takes the necessary steps “in order not to screw up everything” (previous parts explain the necessary steps - mobilization, martial law, mass repression with firing squads)

Otherwise civil war etc as above.

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Interesting…

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Problem is there’s no good way to test the ground suitability on the far bank of any crossing point. You could push a pontoon across and then get bogged on the bank.

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For that particular crossing point, most of the distance is to the southern side and a short crossing to a steeper bank. I would have thought that the softest ground will be in the middle, cross that and they are good. But send a boat across the night before to check the other bank of course.

There are of course many locations where a pontoon crossing could work. And perhaps UA could reduce the flow upstream beforehand, since they control the dam upstream.

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Another site doing the numbers of Ukraine counter offensive losses (unlikely to be true)

donbass-insider.com

Interesting analysis from the US Army Press about the way Ukraine took down the Russians at Chornobaivka, November 2022.

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