Russia invades Ukraine - 4 - from 14 March 2023

No one should kid themselves that Ukraine aren’t paying a frightful price.

But bloody hell, that site is straight up pure propaganda and I’ve a sinking feeling that my IP address is probably now on an FSB data list!

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Reports of heavy artillery action against Russian positions on the Dnieper . Russia rumoured to have reduced these defenses to minimal manpower.

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Might be way off track, but I’d be very surprised if Ukraine hadn’t been planning around the possibility of the dam being blown ever since they took Kherson (and maybe even before) and how to mitigate it/turn it to their advantage.

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It’s not necessarily a precursor to an attempt at a bridgehead on the east bank of the Dnieper. But it may give Russia pause to think about committing too many Crimean battalions to the defence of Tokmak etc.

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As it would be for the TASS site and any other Russian social media links posted in this thread.

Use a VPN!

Side note: don’t drink any tea for the next little while……

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Lots of Hypotheticals and Conjecture but willing to put some longer-term issues on the table

Ukraine’s Winnable War: Why the West Should Help Kyiv Retake All Its Territory

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Thanks for reminding me to turn mine on! I only ever use it overseas but will use it more here in Aus from now on.

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Don’t say Blitz is not useful :wink:

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(Excludes mine clearing vehicles)

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When they see your elite status as a Bomber Blitzer they will probably make you a big offer. Payable in tankers of crude oil.

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OMG that is a shockingly bad site. Apparently they claim to be independent and need donations! Pretty sure there would be a strong flow of $$$ from Moscow already.

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Pretty certain no links are posted to any of those sites here. Anything pro-russian posted such as Rybar posts are just screenshots or links to twitter posts.

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There’s a fair bit of commentary circulating that is suggesting the RU footage showing the mine clearing vehicles was an AI fake. Indicators such as a mine clearing lane that just stops for no reason, several passenger vehicles in the background for no reason, other tracks crossing the freshly plowed lane, etc.

There is also the obvious question of why UA would commit 3 out of the 6 mine clearing vehicles at the start of the offensive in one location? I’m no expert on AI footage but it does look sus.

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Bizarre if true. Russia may get a propaganda boost, but Ukr are still out there somewhere, clearing mines.

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I think this was a while ago but is a good example of fire control and movement.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1669332900658008065?s=20

contrast that with other vids that have veh and ppl firing full auto for whole belts - wasting ammo and damaging barrels.

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The coming siege of Crimea

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Pologi partially surrounded - North, East , West . Russia rumoured to be withdrawing troops / equipment after counter offensive to break the earlier encirclement (successful) has run out of steam.

Ukraine abandoned two villages captured around Tokmak, positions are indefensible.

Heavy fighting continues in south east. Ukr units broken through to Zeleney Hai north of Volnovakha, and Krasna Polliana further west. Russian counter attack is attempting to cut these forces off by recapturing Makarivka behind them. Claims that Russian prisoners are from Crimean based reserves units, Russia may have most available forces now deployed.

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