Fair point but these photo op trips by Grossi raise a lot of questions as well. Not a lot of public information on how much access they have been given and what assurances, if any, the russians have given the IAEA.
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Grossi needs Russian cooperation to maintain safety, not only at the ZNPP, but elsewhere. While he hasn’t succeeded in negotiating a DMZ , he has managed to place IAEA experts at the plant, has full intelligence from them and has probably secured less direct combat and shelling around the plant.
It would be a dumb act on his part to single out Russia . The Russian response would be that if Ukraine stopped fighting near the plant, it would be safe ( Russia’s illegal occupation has been condemned enough elsewhere). As it was, he had to negotiate with the Russians to get safe passage to the plant.
IAEA politics are fought out in Vienna between member countries, which have resulted in Russia failing to secure key positions in the agency.
He is a UN official, who best serves the interests of IAEA members by staying above the politics. Ditto for other UN specialised agencies. They are still able to have dialogue with Russia and visit there.
Guterres as SG can go further, representing UN Member views on the basis of UNGA resolutions. And with a background of former PM of Portugal, he is skilful in UN politics. And don’t overlook the key role of the UN in the grain corridor, which is at a sensitive stage.
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Also, Grossi would be briefing reps of IAEA member governments on the detail.
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Holy cow!
Insert:DavidAttenboroughVoice
“and here we see the BMP, emerging from it’s nighttime resting spot, it’s getting ready to hunt”
https://twitter.com/Seveerity/status/1669642581947342848?s=20
(twitter video in link)
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Driver was as surprised as everyone else - got drunk last night and woke up inside the house…
lol
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SitRep - 16/06/23 - More aid for Ukraine
An overview of the daily events in the war between Russia and Ukraine. While Ukraine is looking for weak spots in Russia’s defense, there is more military support for Ukraine.
Are ATACMS finally confirmed?!
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1669810339465121793?s=20
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Let me comment on this
Ukrainian special forces have crossed the Dnipro at Nova Kakhovka and are attacking Russian positions with the possible goal of establishing a bridgehead and opening a new front in Ukraine’s counteroffensive, according to volunteer Kenneth Gregg, who says Ukrainian military officials authorize his disclosures
Other reports have suggested Russia pulled back the bulk of its forces in occupied Kherson up to 30-40 km from the Dnipro after Russian forces destroyed the Nova Kakhovka dam and redeployed some of them further east in southern Ukraine to reinforce retreating Russian troops
https://twitter.com/ArmedMaidan/status/1669771499551555594?s=20
The role of SF could include raids and ambushes; recce and maybe pathfinding for a larger force; but not to establish a beachhead. The don’t have the mass, equipment, and firepower required.
In any case, the source seems sketchy.
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Bump
Sounds like more shaping efforts, but with media backup to keep Russians manning the Dnipro front
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Bushhamster had a bad day. Crew likely ok.
https://twitter.com/arslon_xudosi/status/1669848256162025472?s=46&t=A5S-z5IJslFoC5SVN0Jodg
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Comparison of losses over June so far. 97 UA to 54 RU. Taken from Oryx visually confirmed losses, so should be very accurate.
A large number of the AFU losses are abandoned vehicles - hopefully those kind of losses can be repaired if they are able to re-take the area
https://twitter.com/naalsio26/status/1669866404722495489?s=20
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More on Grossi. Here is a sample of what russia has been showing Grossi and utilizing him for on his photo-op tours.
Report back to stakeholders
Better approach to maneuver warfare OPSEC and C3D here:
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“Since such a situation has developed, we ourselves need to sit down, our scientists, and develop <…> the same weapon against the Anglo-Saxons. They specifically study the gene pool of each people and try to make the weapon that will destroy their gene pool. We need to deal with the Anglo-Saxons - this is the main enemy. <…> And they should know about it, that guys, God forbid, you will get no less in return,” Gurulev said.
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Very interesting article on Russia’s strategy.
Clearly states the key to understanding what the war is about, which is widely ignored:
At a basic level, Russia likely fears that an economically prosperous, democratic Ukraine might offer the Russian population the prospect of an alternative political and economic system other than an authoritarian-ruled kleptocracy. This might be partly why Russian President Vladimir Putin tends to characterize the war in Ukraine as existential in nature, which in turn enables the Kremlin to further mobilize the population against what it claims are the military and cultural threats of the eastwardly expanding NATO and EU.
I’m curious as to how many here basically agree, disagree or have no opinion about that:
- Basically Agree
- Basically Disagree
- No opinion
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The rest of the article loses sight of that basic point, in my view because immediately preceding it is the framework from within the issues are in fact perceived:
Ukraine and its Western backers must understand Russia’s strategy to counter and defeat it and force Russia to seriously negotiate with Ukraine, taking the latter’s terms into consideration.
So I am also curious as to how many here basically agree, disagree or have no opinion on that paragraph.
- Basically agree aim is serious negotiations taking Ukraine’s terms into account
- Basically disagree on that
- No opinion on that
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In my view it is logically incoherent to aim to force Russia (meaning the “authoritarian-ruled kleptocracy” to “seriously negotiate” with Ukraine if in fact one understands that it is the continued existence of the autocratic kleptocracy that is at stake. But I doubt whether that view is widespread.