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Another stormshadow strike on an base over 100km behind the lines.
UK has made a definite impact.
https://twitter.com/archer83able/status/1672207750900731904?s=46&t=A5S-z5IJslFoC5SVN0Jodg
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Fascinating video. The guy explaining reparations has been undermining the others for a long time and is well on the way to doing it openly.
Confirms the regimeâs hold even on its own media is shaky.
The 3 recent segments from Prighozin make it utterly clear he wants to replace the regime. Well worth watching.
Hereâs another from Strelkov confirming explictly that Putin (not just his MoD) has lost the war.
https://twitter.com/Dan71399012/status/1671402300894507009
My take is that the situation is currently unpredictable. It was correct to not get excited about Russian media threats of nuclear war before, but quite appropriate now for NATO to explicitly state that both use of a tactical weapon and an âeventâ at the nuclear power plant would certainly result in war.
My only quibble is that NATO should already be at war. The threat should be more detailed and focused on the chain of command that would have to act on any insane orders.
eg âWould result in the prompt and thorough destruction of all Russian installations from which nuclear weapons could be launched, including the entire locality known as âthe Kremlinâ, and the eventual capture and trial of everyone in the regime that could have acted to removed those who enabled the orders before the crime was committed but failed to do so.â
I actually donât think any nuclear incident is at all likely, especially assuming US does act on current Senate resolution and NATO follows up. But it can no longer be ignored, and the liklihood would certainly increase if the resolution is not adopted.
More interesting is the other unpredictable implications of the current internal situation in Russia.
My guess is still that somebody will have to take charge replacing Putin.
There is more than a hint that the fascist opposition from both Prighozin and Strelkov would agree with the democratic opposition that the war is lost. I still think they currently have greater capacity to take power by force and take the militarily necessary decisions to withdraw the remaining forces from Ukraine in order to preserve an autocratic kleptocracy and rebuild it for a better prepared war.
They are both appealing fairly openly for the troops that are being asked to die for nothing to instead join them in overthrowing the MoD leadership and live.
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At a recent DOD briefing to a subcommittee of the House Foreign Affairs Committee emphasis was placed on the security assistance of European countries to Ukraine. The advice given was, that in terms of security assistance as a percentage of global GDP, the US is not in the top 10. Over half of certain military equipment comes from outside the US.
Of course it is the interests of the Nordics and Baltics for an independent democratic Ukraine to win this War, but they are also exposed.
Itâs good that other NATO have come to the party, strengthened their defences and commit to protect NATOâs northern flank (as it has done with its southern flank).
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You could make the point that this social media age we live in is a massive blessing, or alternatively, a massive curse, but we are certainly living in a different age than our forefathersâŠ
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Drone footage of the remnants of the dam.
Canât think of a mechanism for the damage to the power plant building that doesnât involve copious quanitites of internally placed explosives.
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1672222251289124864?s=20
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Which I think was what most of us had thought at the time, but goes against what both you and elfm had said earlier on about it being cause by too much built up water pressure.
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I donât think Benny was saying that, he was just offering alternative explanations other than intentionally mined and sabotaged
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Thereâs a few parts of that failure that conflict with each other. The supports holding up the road collapsed in the turbulence days before the breach. Then the wall failed in the same place. That looks to be connected. I canât see an intentional mechanism that results in the road collapsing first.
The right bank of the river has the dam sections sloping down into the water. That could be undercutting of the foundation. It could also just be the domino effect of an explosive breach.
Hereâs where the undercutting theory starts to weaken. I just canât match that mechanism with the breach on the left bank and the sections of the HPP crumbling. I just canât see a domino effect that does that. Might be an accidental mechanism here, but I canât think of it.
The story that fits in my mind is the breach was accidental, after the warning sign of the road collapse, then the HPP was blown accidentally or in a panic. An accidental breach of a dam packed with explosives is something that can go sideways in a hurry. But that story is too complicated to be likely.
One intelligence sauce believes it was meant to be a small detonation to relieve pressure on the dam, that they accidentally breached the whole thing.
Thatâs what I can put together. Donât take my educated guesswork as a categorical assessment. Weâre looking at imperfect footage and satellite imagery from the other side of the world.
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Hungary is the EU outlier in its commitment to Ukraine. Then thereâs Turkey, a NATO member which is not applying sanctions AFAIK. Then thereâs the BICS of the BRICS pushing for an early Peace, the African Union, US Presidential elections in 2024, a drift to the far right in European elections, the Middle East sitting on the fence with its own conflicts.
Within France, some are recalling its role in that 19th Century Crimean War, that bridge across the Seine, the Pont de lâAlma to remind them
Russia has set up a pontoon to bypass the damaged bridge to Crimea.
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1672238074489700352?s=46&t=A5S-z5IJslFoC5SVN0Jodg
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I wasnât excluding it, just a possibility.
But if you combine both effects, you would need less explosives.
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you asked, he answered
It has been nearly three weeks since the initial ground combat phase of the Ukrainian 2023 offensives commenced. What is the state of the campaign? 1/25
https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1672055675248340992?s=20
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Target practice
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No guarantee of accuracy of this translation but Prizoghin continues to wage political war with Shoigu if true
https://twitter.com/DevanaUkraine/status/1671963740198039552?s=20
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How many Putins are there?
On 22 June, 2023 there has been a mix-up of Putinâs doubles, officially noted by the Russian media and on the Kremlinâs official website.
During a live broadcast of the meeting with members of the Russian Security Council, led by the real Vladimir Putin, another Putin lay down a wreath at the Unknown Soldierâs grave and visited victory museum. At the same time Putin had a meeting with Qatar Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani.
The video is a visual representation of Putinsâ timeline.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672280637095419904?s=20
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Well the next 24 hr is gonna be interesting.
Infighting has started. Rus army missile attack on Wagner troops.
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