Yup. This war is being fought with the leftovers from Cold War stocks. Very little modern western gear has gone. Even the bulk of the leopard 2s are the A4 variant, few A6s sent.
Even the F-16s being provided are end of life airframes with avionics about 20 years out of date.
I dont disagree and would love to see it end now, but NATO full engagement would back Russia into a corner with only one way out, probably the use of nukes. it is a very fine line they tow and are being very careful as not to go full aggression, also their involvement would have an interesting effect on the general population as to what happens after the war. Is there a chance Russia lose and there is a change from within for the better? Maybe, if nato troops get on the ground and kick them out of ukraine in a week would that steel the general russia population to hate the west more? Not sure. ■■■■ situation, no easy way to make a call.
The current tranche of US defence aid ends at the end of this month. A new bill is required within the next two weeks. What that bill contains is going to be absolutely critical to the future of this conflict.
The next NATO conference on Ukraine support is in the next day or two. Again, critical.
The west needs to scale up some form of equipment production in the same way that artillery is ramping up. New orders of equipment will free up donation of older systems. That’s what I’ll be looking for over the remainder of the year as it will drive the 2024 donations.
VERY interesting. As comments in thread indicate a ban by China on exporting such drones to Russia has HUGE implications (while continuing the flow of Mavic 3 and below).
Understandable doubts about whether it will really be implemented but a comment in that thread points to a Washington Examiner article with a reason why it could be real. Chinese regime DOES have a common interest with the rest of the world in discouraging Russian regime’s lowering the nuclear threshold.
Putin’s nuclear messaging to the West
by Jon Sweet & Mark Toth | September 18, 2023 07:05 AM
Wednesday’s summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the Vostochny Cosmodrome had an ominous undertone. It was not just about Russia’s need for weapons and munitions. It was also Putin playing a North Korean nuclear wild card against the United States and its allies in the Pacific.
Without doubt, the two nations are working on a deal that would provide military assistance to the Kremlin, namely artillery, anti-tank missiles, and potentially 100,000 volunteers to fill Russian trenches. But the Russian technology given to Pyongyang, in return, poses an even bigger threat to the U.S., South Korea, and Japan.
…
Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Chief Kyrylo Budanov claimed North Korea has already provided Russia with 122 mm and 152 mm artillery ammunition for over a month now. That was likely the result of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s travel to Pyongyang in July to attend the celebration of North Korea’s 70th anniversary of “Victory Day.”Putin’s meeting was likely about how Russian technology can advance North Korea’s military satellite and nuclear-powered submarine capabilities alongside its nuclear and missile programs. The not-so-subtle location of the meeting, the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Russia’s Amur region, tells us all we need to know.
Symbolic? Absolutely.
The Russian facility was built in 2016 to enable the Kremlin to achieve Moscow’s military and commercial space ambitions. Senior lawmaker Irina Yarovaya described the spaceport as a “21st-century space launch facility and a new philosophy of modern Russia. It means that irrespective of anybody’s political will, we can launch any spacecraft to any space orbits independently.”
Despite the failed Luna 25 spacecraft attempt to plant the Russian flag on the moon’s south pole, the complex remains a treasure trove of scientific knowledge on jet propulsion, terminal guidance systems, and much more.
As Ukraine’s counteroffensive gains momentum and the Russian military’s hold on the Crimean Peninsula is in doubt, Putin is looking for a game-changing way to retrieve his faltering “special military operation.”
Partnering with Kim Jong Un’s North Korea for military assistance is one way out. By creating a Pyongyang nuclear wild card, Putin seeks to turn his present weakness in Ukraine into a position of strength.
The meeting and its location were a well-planned event intended to telegraph a nuclear message to the U.S. It may have worked, too. The White House is reportedly wavering on supplying Ukraine with ATACMS missiles.
Putin may be trying to de-escalate the war in Ukraine by threatening a nuclear confrontation in the Pacific. While the U.S. has been able to “weaken Russia” in Ukraine by providing weapons, ammunition, and intelligence, the threat of transferring critical technology to enable a nuclear-capable North Korea to strike the U.S. may be enough to get the Biden administration and NATO to force Ukraine to the negotiation table.
While Putin, his national propagandists, and Dmitry Medvedev, former president and current deputy chairman of the Security Council of Russia, have all threatened the use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine and the West, Washington knows Kim Jong Un would be the one most likely to employ them. The White House needs a counter — and fast.
The threat of nuclear escalation has once again risen to the occasion. A desperate Putin appears to be willing to hand the keys to the kingdom over to North Korea to save himself and his “empire.” But unlike storing tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, once Putin transfers the technology to Kim Jong Un, he relinquishes control.
Things likely just got radioactive.
It would not surprise me if Chinese regime was willing to join in international force confiscating stray nuclear weapons if necessary when Russian regime collapses.
Nor would it surprise me if they facilitated rather than opposed DPRK regime sales of munitions to keep the Russian regime going for as long as feasible.
The two are not necessarily inconsistent.
A drones ban could be a less than subtle hint that China would not tolerate DPRK being paid for munitions supplies with enhanced capability to make nuclear threats that are directly opposed to Chinese regime’s interests.
No reason for West to make the call. It is Ukraine’s call that should count.
The only reason the likelihood of regime resorting to nukes gets hyped so much - both by the regime itself and by Western commentary is to provide cover for the decisions being made against the interests of ending the war quickly.
Ending the war quickly would also end the regime quickly, cost less and benefit everybody except the Western arms industry.
Here’s the 72 tweet long thread on ATACMS that you all have been desperately waiting for.
Yes that’s a daunting length. Yes it’s worth reading. Hasn’t been better coverage of this topic of this quality for the duration of the war.
https://x.com/colbybadhwar/status/1703757651623162271?s=46&t=A5S-z5IJslFoC5SVN0Jodg
Thanks for excellent thread on ATACMs.
Rolled up version was a long way down after the 72 tweets and some comments:
I’m VERY curious about this question and reply in the thread:
Is that implying there is some bipartisan move to block US Government funding if Ukraine doesn’t get what it needs?
I am completely unaware of any such news but would be utterly delighted. Perhaps I have also missed some other interpretation of the comment and some more likely explanation of what it is 99% confident about.
Bring them in.
This very poster has been calling for these big bangers for quite some time. Will be a game changer for Ukraine.
Are the Deputy Defence Ministers elected members of the Ukraine Parliament, or are they appointed with specific management roles including at a regional level?
They are not elected politicians in the Parliament but are usually civilian specialists appointed with specific roles.
For example, they have five Deputy Prime Ministers
EDIT: Fedorov WAS in parliament after a successful private sector career but then left as per the laws to become a deputy minister.
Six deputy ministers plus Kostiantyn Vashchenko, a State Secretary, were cleared out of the Defence Ministry:
That was fast! If true, at this rate russia won’t have any need for a naval bases in Crimea because there won’t be a Black Sea fleet left…
Was that a hit or miss?
