Russia invades Ukraine - 5 - from 2 October 2023

Kyiv currently under the biggest Shahed drone attack of the war to date. Looks like Russia has saved up and thrown everything at them in one go.

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:frowning: fingers crossed

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I don’t know what the fark to make of this. Either the chinese are playing games with the russians or it’s a poor attempt at russian propaganda pretending to still be in control of the war zone.

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Ukraine’s vehicle losses in their offensive was about 1:1 with Russia. Russia’s current offensive is extraordinarily costly.


https://x.com/naalsio26/status/1728211938130428020?s=46&t=A5S-z5IJslFoC5SVN0Jodg


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Caught with his pants down .

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Russian losses per 25/11/23 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.

+860 men
+6 tanks
+7 APVs
+18 artillery systems
+1 MLRS
+1 AD system
+8 UAVs
+1 cruise missile

Overnight, Russia launched a giant Shahed attack. A total of 75 Shahed’s were launched of which 71 (!) were shot down. At least six regions were affected by the attack. In addition, a single Kh-59 missile was destroyed in the Dnipropetrovsk region.

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71/75 is a massive endorsement for the AA systems+tactics UKR has set up

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Bump

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53% of the drones shot down yesterday were by cheap machine guns or manpads. Mass deployment of these teams takes a lot of pressure off expensive missile defences.

https://x.com/john_a_ridge/status/1728488714559717470?s=46&t=A5S-z5IJslFoC5SVN0Jodg

https://x.com/hurkitco/status/1728270736408871229?s=46&t=A5S-z5IJslFoC5SVN0Jodg

This is awesome. A technical with WW1 Maxim machine guns and spotlights shooting at a Shehad drone.

https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1728558517999550614?s=46&t=A5S-z5IJslFoC5SVN0Jodg

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Avdiivka.

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Russian losses per 26/11/23 reported by the Ukrainian general staff

+1070 men
+11 tanks
+16 APVs
+23 artillery systems
+2 MLRS
+1 AD system
+93 UAVs

As a result of air defense operating over Ukraine last night, a total of 8 out of 9 Shahed drones were shot down.

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Knowing that they are likely to explode if you get close surely the thing to do would be to get away from such land-based drones.

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It’s been a while since the Nova-Kakhovka (?) dam got blown up etc.

Do we know now if it was definitely the Russians that did it? I recall they probably did a Rick Disnik and “just farked up”, but obviously the news cycle moves on so it kind of got forgotten with all the other stupid stuff.

But in hindsight did it benefit the Russians in the short term/long term?

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For those non-sporting types that might not be familiar with my references above!

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There’s no categorical evidence, but the structure was designed to withstand a nuke. Ukraine didn’t have the capability to destroy the dam from external strikes, it required explosives planted inside the engineering access tunnels. Be it accidental, ordered by local command or from Moscow we just don’t know.

Ukraine had started their counteroffensive with the intent of recapturing Kherson oblast. They wanted that dam for after the war, so there’s no motivation for them to destroy it.

That’s the best we have. There’s some good engineering analysis, but it’s circumstantial evidence. Proper answers will require access to the dam remains, which will only happen after the war ends.

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Smoking season is back.

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