Russia invades Ukraine - 5 - from 2 October 2023

Some real weather in Ukraine.

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The anti drone nets protecting Sevastopol and the Kursk Strait bridge are both very likely destroyed due to this intense storm action.

The days after the storm could include some very interesting drone action.

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That’s a real worry. The video posted above by Benny indicated the supply line north of Avdiivka is under pressure. Add to that this Russian progress in the south isn’t good.

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Avdiivka will fall unless there is a Ukrainian counteroffensive to push the Russians back from the NE supply line. It may take months for Russia to limp the line forward, at the cost of immense numbers of troops.

For Ukraine this seems to be an extraordinarily advantageous casualty ratio. Ukraine should bleed the Russians here for as long as possible. The trick will be when to push back or when to pull out.

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UKR develops mothership drone that deploys smaller FPV drones and acts as a repeater

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Good morning. Russian losses per 27/11/23 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+750 men
+7 tanks
+3 APVs
+1 artillery system
+4 UAVs

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Anyone who thinks Russian elections are fair is smoking some seriously good gear

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Cambridge NZ

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Are there many Ukrainian flags flying in the Glorious Gold Coast mate?

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Not sure. I saw one at the beginning of the war hanging off a balcony in Bilinga, so they are out there. This is the first one I saw in NZ. Surprising, because it is in Cambridge, a small town near Hamilton. Benny saw that blue and Yellow silo (?) here last year as well…

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Yep, Lisbon and Berlin are both viable objectives for the next Russian offensive in Ukraine.

Gotta get all them Nazis.

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China has refused to invest in Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline and demanded more gas discounts, The South China Morning Post writes.

China is unwilling to invest in the new pipeline, offering Russia to pay the multibillion-dollar construction bill in full and demanding discounts on Russian gas, The South China Morning Post reported, citing a source familiar with the situation in Moscow.

Next year, the discount for China will increase to 46%, according to the government’s drafts: gas from the Power of Siberia will cost $271.6 per thousand cubic meters, and for Turkey and Europe - $481.7. But that’s not enough for China. It “can demand deep discounts,” the source says. “In terms of construction, [Beijing] wants to make sure that they have no risks and no costs. Russia is the side that foots the entire bill,” says the source.

Whether Gazprom will find money for the new megaproject remains unclear. After cutting off gas to European countries, the company made a trillion-ruble net loss for the year and faced cash gaps that it had to spend two-thirds of its cash reserves to cover. Of the 2 trillion ruble “cash pile” that Gazprom had before the war, about 700 billion (~$5.56 billion) remained by July 2023.

Even so, Putin hardly has a choice. The Russian president is “under enormous pressure” because if the pipe is not built, Russia will have nowhere to dump “a huge volume” of gas, says the SCMP source. After losing the European market, where more than 150 billion cubic meters of gas a year went at its peak before the war, Gazprom has been forced to cut production by a quarter – a record in its history.

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“capturing Lisbon and moving on towards the US”

Sounds like they have one of those maps with Alaska on the left and Vladivostok on the right. Don’t anyone tell them there is a quicker way to the US than via Iberia.

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China playing this very well strategically. Probing and exploiting the grey areas on sanctions, probing and exploiting Russia’s increased isolation, never overstepping

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