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Russian losses per 28/11/23 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.
+860 men
+3 tanks
+3 APVs
+1 artillery system
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Per those who have seen high resolution images of Sevastapol, the UAV booms and dophin pens have been destroyed by the storm.
Also, Budanov’s wife and a number of secret service officers are in hospital with heavy metal poisoning. Budanov isn’t at the top of the list of people I’d choose to ■■■■ off.
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Russia’s Powerful Invisible Defenses Around Sevastopol Rendered Visible
Electromagnetic Warfare is a powerful weapon in the war in Ukraine. Yet it is elusive; we know it is happening but it is invisible, even mysterious. A new analysis of open source data gives a rare window into this world, unmasking Russia’s hidden hand.
The Russo-Ukrainian War has catapulted Electromagnetic Warfare (EW) to prominence. It is a major cause of Ukrainian drone losses, making them to lose control or miss their target. Yet it is hard to grasp, in part because it is invisible, a silent unseen hand knocking drones out of the sky.
This analysis unhides some of this mysterious invisible defense around Sevastopol.
It leverages two effects; firstly the navigation errors in the reported position of civilian vessels in Sevastopol. And secondly, the effect on radar satellite imagery. Open source intelligence analyst Damien Symons has noted these effects in the past month. Both indicate that there is a powerful jammer located in Sevastopol.
Sevastopol has several layers of defense aimed at stopping Ukrainian missiles and drone attacks on the important city. Sea drones have broken into the harbor on several occasions and aerial drones have targeted it since last year. On September 13th Ukraine launched Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles against the dry docks there. This effectively wrote off a landing ship and Kilo class submarine. This was followed up with more strikes including one on September 22nd which destroyed much of the Naval headquarters. These missiles had to fly through the infamous S-400 missile umbrella as well as local air defenses. They also had to operate despite Russia’s powerful electromagnetic defenses. The drones in particular are, generally speaking, susceptible to GPS jamming.
GPS Jamming Unmasked By Ship Positions
Since early November a number of ships and boats, which are in Sevastopol harbor, have been transmitting their location as Sevastopol International Airport. This is about 8 km (5 miles) north of their true location. The vessels are transmitting their position via AIS (automated identification system).It is possible for vessels to report their position incorrectly on purpose, or due to a myriad of technical issues. But this is systematic suggesting something else is at play.
So many vessels misreporting their location, and the false positions having such a concentration, points towards GPS interference. Jamming global positioning system signals, such as the American GPS, Russian GLONASS, or European Galileo (all referred to here generically as ‘GPS’), can affect AIS. The AIS transmission includes the coordinates of the vessel which in many cases this is fed directly from the GPS system. Without further analysis it is unclear whether the jamming is affecting all types of GPS or just one.
It is interesting that the vessels’ false positions are clustered around the international airport. This may indicate that the source of the jamming is there.
Russia is known to use GPS jamming to protect key sites. It has been used to protect President Putin’s stays at the luxurious Residence at Cape Idokopas, popularly known as “Putin’s Palace”. Since Ukrainian drones began striking Moscow GPS jamming was deployed there too. And ships were outfitted with powerful EW suites to protect the Navy Day Parade in St. Petersburg.
Jamming Of Radar Satellites
Jamming is also visible with the European Space Agency’s Sentinel 1 SAR (synthetic aperture radar) satellite. There was interference in imagery taken at 6:49am local time on November 23rd. It was even more marked at 6:36pm the next day, effectively obstructing the whole city. It is not possible to make out the ships in the harbor in the way it normally is.
Satim, a company which specializes in analyzing radar imagery, confirmed that SAR satellites operating at different frequencies did not appear to be affected. Sentinel 1 is a C-band radar while others are X-band. It is possible that the jamming was active when the Sentinel 1 satellite passed but not when the others did. Another straightforward interpretation is that the jamming is targeting C-band rather than X-band radars.
In both the AIS issues and the radar satellite interference, these may not be the primary target. The AIS errors can be seen as merely a side effect of the GPS jamming. Disruption to the satellites however does have some military value. Ukraine no doubt uses then as one of many means to observe Russian port activity and plan strikes. But again there may be other C band radars Russia is targeting, and the satellite interference may be secondary.
A number of Russian ships have been reporting their location as Sevastopol International Airport. This is likely an unwitting side effect of Russia jamming global positioning systems data in the area. At the same time, radar satellites have picked up significant interference in the area, again indicating jamming. Graphics by Damien Symon.
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Russian losses per 29/11/23 reported by the Ukrainian general staff
+1140 men
+15 tanks
+27 APVs
+32 artillery systems
+3 MLRS
+3 AD systems
+39 UAVs
+2 cruise missiles
The Ukrainian Air Force reports that overnight, a total of 21/21 Shahed drones were shot down and 2 out of 3 Kh-59 cruise missiles were downed.
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Sochi got absolutely hammered in the storm, which led to one of the greatest health and safety fails of all time…
https://x.com/unpluggedrus/status/1729105379056087242?s=46&t=A5S-z5IJslFoC5SVN0Jodg
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Amazed by the size of the swell they can get in this inland sea.
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They really don’t care about people’s lives do they, there were children on that train.
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Whats the latest in the past 3-6 months if anyone could share some detail. Seemed like a fair stalemate a while ago.
Ukraine’s southern counteroffensive ran out of steam after not achieving their objectives. Few reasons being put forward:
- stronger than expected landmines
- equipment was donated too late to fully train new units with
- green units were given new equipment instead of battle hardened veterans
- cluster munitions were sent too late, reducing Russian casualties
- ATACMS was sent too late, so Russian attack helicopters could pick off Ukrainian columns from 8km
- the most obvious avenue of attack was chosen, which had the strongest defences
- significant quality Ukrainian force was lost in Bakhmut, so not available for the offensive.
Minor clashes in the south continue, but we are talking 50-100m assaults with small units.
The Ukrainians made a decent offensive to the south of Bakhmut, causing major problems for the Russians and securing a solid defensive line. Minor clashes continue, with significant Russian losses as they try to retake ground.
At this point everyone expected the fighting to die down for the winter as Russia rebuilt their forces. Instead, probably driven by a need for a political victory in the lead up to the election, Russia assaulted the fortress of Avdiivka. They lost over 500 vehicles in a little over a week and 1000s of lives. The advance of approx 2km is threatening the Ukrainian supply lines, so may end up capturing the city eventually. A minor outcome, but politically important.
And to make life even more surreal, Ukraine has launched an amphibious operation over the Dnipro river. It is largely a PR move, but they’ve picked an area that is difficult for Russia to supply and is inside Ukrainian artillery and drone range.
FPV drones are becoming and ever increasing threat, used in mass by both sides. Ukraine has used much of the West’s artillery ammo. North Korea is providing Russia with 1m+ shells in exchange for probably military technology.
Main issue for Ukraine right now is Republicans blocking a renewal of the aid package unless Biden agrees to some brutal changes to immigration controls on the southern border. US aid is a trickle of what it once was.
Neither side is in a position to advance right now. Ukraine’s offensive went better than Russia’s.
And we’ve just had wave 2 of Russia’s winter drone/missile attacks on Ukrainian energy and heating infrastructure. The Russians have stockpiled new missiles to try to overwhelm Ukr air defences and drop the country into blackout. Ukraine has a lot more air defence than last winter, so time will tell.
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Great summary 
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@Benny40 a bit of chatter going around that UKR is running out of people to train up for the army. What is your thoughts on that.
I think UKR also has some plans to return fire this winter.
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There’s purported to be 650k Ukrainian draft age people abroad at the moment avoiding the war, if Russia goes to general mobilization after their pretend elections there may be a manpower asymmetry.
At this stage I don’t think it’s an issue. Ukrainians remain motivated and have suffered fewer losses
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