And there’s a big difference between actionable intelligence and general information.
Russia knows exactly where all the supplies are arriving in Poland. But they can’t do anything about it because of article 5. (NATO all in response to an attack.)
Russia would have a reasonable idea of where the supplies are crossing the border, but their air power can’t survive a push that far into the SAM defences of Ukraine. They also don’t want to risk an accidental air clash with NATO.
They don’t have real time surveillance. Drones won’t survive in that area long enough to get any useful info. They have satellite photos of specific moments in the past. You can’t target a moving convoy using satellite photos. (Unless the convoy is Russian and doesn’t move for 7 days.)
Once the gear has scattered into Ukraine, Russia has almost zero chance of locating it and hitting it before it gets to the final destination. They do their attack missions using coordinates written on scraps of paper. They can’t adjust to a moving target while on the fly.
Looks like 2 hits just above the waterline below the bridge. Then caught fire. Every hatch from the front to the back of the ship has flame marks on the hull.
