Obviously, this thread depends on sanctions. But assuming the players win and are all available, my view is that with a good injury run, anything less than top 4 should have Hird in the spotlight. The list management is clearly aimed at getting a premiership this year or next. We have topped up with mature players and convinced older players and those on the periphery of the best 22 to stay on/at Essendon. I
More importantly, I do think injuries permitting we have a top four list.
Back line
In my view, the main set of backline players of Hooker, Hurley, Fletcher, Hibberd, Baguley, Dempsey and Gwilt are as good a set as going around. I expect when all fit six of the above to play, and I don’t know who will miss out. It has the ability to shut down key forwards with Hooker and Bags, while Hibberd, Hurley, Demps and Gwilt all provide rebound. The only player with defensive questions is Dempsey - the others all both either do a job or provide rebound AND do a job.
Recruiting Gwilt means we have cover for everyone there except Hooker and Hurley. If either of those two go down, we have problems. It means playing Gwilt out of his weight class, robbing Peter and bringing Carlisle back, or promoting Steinberg. There are potential issues with all of those, although if Steinberg could step up it would solve a lot of them.
Midfield
This is now a strong unit which bats pretty deep. At the top end you have Watson, Heppell, Goddard and Stanton, with Chappy doing cameos. Zaha should push into this group, and hopefully Cooney is fit enough to. It obviously suffered a little that last year Watson was injured and Stanton seemed to be carrying something.
Colyer and Zerrett should both provide the outside run and carry, and danger around the HF line. They were huge parts of our 2014 side, and there is no reason both can’t continue to improve.
After them you have workhorses in Myers, Howlett and Hocking. Personally, I think Howlett will struggle to make the best 22 consistently, and that is only a good thing for the team. If Melksham can re-find his 2013 form he will also boost the midfield pressure. I also like the prospect of Jerret, and the reports on Edwards are promising.
A modern midfield really comprises of around 10-11 players with a number on the bench or in the forward line at any one time. If we can regularly put out ten of the following eleven - Watson, Goddard, Heppell, Stanton, Zaha, Cooney, Chappy, Colyer, Myers, Hocking, Zerrett - and complement them with a combination of Melksham, Howlett, Jerrett, Gleeson and whoever else stands up, we should do well. We probably can’t cover a plethora of injuries, but then who can?
My main hope about Hird is he gets rid of some of the Thompson rubbish and we start playing a bit more direct like we did in 2013. With Colyer, Zaha, Zerrett and Cooney we have the pace to make some breaks, we need to use it. Help out the forwards a bit. Obviously there are questions over our two-way running, but again we did well for most of 2013 under Hird.
Ruck
Ryder is obviously a loss, and we don’t know to what degree Giles will cover him. But I was one of the few who back at the end of the 2013 season was saying I would rather trade out Ryder than Belly (although I said the two of them were a weapon). So I really see it as Belly coming in to replace Ryder, and Giles being the cover we didn’t have this year due to injuries.
In my view, Belly matches Ryder. A better mark and forward player (although not as accurate a kick), I think he has more around the ground presence. Those areas are better than Ryder, but he probably was slightly behind in the tap work. But he is also younger. I think this will be a big year for him. Giles adds depth and another forward target. Last year we had to play Carlisle and JD in the ruck, please not happen again this year! And that lack of ruck depth is a concern. Two injuries, and our stocks are wiped out.
So again, injuries are key.
Forward line
I think in Carlisle and JD we will have one of the more dangerous forward combinations going around this year. Carlisle always looked good forward in his first years, and after taking a while to settle in (including ruck duties) the finish of his year was impressive. JD just got better as the year went on, culminating in the final where he was dominant. Getting both these guys on the park fit and firing is so important to us.
Whether we then use a ruck or Ambrose, we have options on the third tall forward. It gets a little trickier if one of Carlisle/JD go down and we have to use both Ambrose and a ruck, but the goal kicking ability of Giles and Belly does assist here.
The real concern is the small forwards, as it has been for a while. Winders in my view was poor forward, it was only when he got shifted to the backline that he found any consistent form. If Winderlich can re-discover the form prior to 2014 in the forward line, our attacking ability there jumps a huge amount. In 2013 when fit he was supremely dangerous up forward. If Chappy or Cooney spends more time here, it might also help things. Edwards is a wild card - someone who could assist ground and air side. We will obviously rotate people through such as Watson/Goddard/Zerret/Colyer as well. Overall, we should survive.
But we really lack someone who can be put down for 25-30 goals a season, and have done so since Monfries left. Still cursing that one. Winders may fill that void. Getting a Fantasia/McKenna/Laverde to step up here would be huge, but I’m not betting on it. So we will need to just hope we get the midfield rotators right.
Summary
I think our best 22 can match pretty much anyone with defence, all but the very best (i.e. Hawthorn) in the midfield and ruck. The tall forwards are unproven but I’m making the call by the end of 2015 they’ll be rated with anyone outside the top 2. Even without a small forward, that leaves us in a position where we can compete with anyone IMO. I think we should be aiming for top 4, and then see if we can ■■■■■■ it.
The issue is injuries and ASADA. There are just a raft of areas, especially talls, where a few injuries would leave us awfully exposed. That nearly our only tall depth is on the rookie list (McKernan & Steinberg) also restricts our flexibility.