Ins – Gary Ablett, Lachlan Fogarty, Tim Kelly, Charlie Constable, Gryan Miers, Stewart Crameri,
Outs – Tom Lonergan, Andrew Mackie, Josh Cowan, Tom Ruggles, Steven Motlop, Darcy Lang
My Prediction
Geelong last year never really looked like a genuine premiership threat. They have a great top tier of players but their depth is questionable.
The back line losing Mackie and Lonergan is huge. Taylor will move back where we looks a much better player. He never looked at home up forward but it will cost them flexibility. They have some quality players back there with Stewart having a break out year and Tuohy was an amazing pick up. They still look weaker than last year and I think they lack a bit of run back here.
I am not sure Ablett will play too much in the midfield next year. Their midfield is pretty good. At the top end of talent you have Selwood and Dangerfield. Throw in the little Selwood and Duncan, it is a formidable unit. They lack speed on the outside which might be where Ablett comes in handy but he is probably of more use up forward.
I wouldn’t say their forward line is terrible but it just isn’t great. Hawkins is in the Travis Cloke mode. He lacks the mobility for where the game is right now. It is hard to get excited about their forward line. They have goal kicking smalls with Menzel and Guthrie, Cockatoo is good for a few quality games but it lacks genuine excitement and is predictable.
Smith is a good solid ruck. They have Blicavs as well but the third man up rule has smashed his effectiveness.
For the second year in a row, Geelong looks to have weakened its list. Ablett at full strength is a super pick up but they lost depth down back and as a result lost depth up forward. The top end talent in the middle is as good as anyone but I dont think they can carry them over the line often enough. They struggled away from home last year so will need to find an answer to that as well. I expect them to drop slightly. 3-5 for mine.
Probably the worst depth of any contender. I reckon they’ve got about 20 league-standard players, although their draftees like Kelly and Constable should get a chance.
I don’t think they’ve mortgaged anything.
They’ve realised that they are terrible at drafting from the under 18s.
Between 2010 and trading for Dangerfield, they have took Billie Smedts, Cameron Guthrie, traded picks for Josh Caddy, Jackson Thurlow, Darcy Lang and Nakia Cockatoo with picks inside the top 30. None of those guys were going to carry the team to the next premiership.
What this club has done well is identifying players for specific roles in their team to give them the best chance to win every year. In the same period they took Podsiadly who was very important in getting them the 2011 premiership. They took a chance on Blicavs as a rookie. They gave Sam Menegola a chance when no one else even bothered with him. Grabbed Rhys Stanley, Lachie Henderson, Zac Smith, Scott Selwood and Zach Tuohy. They added Tim Kelly who is ready to go.
They started winning premierships in 2007 and were able to sneak another one in 2011. Who could blame them to want that period of success to last until 2017 and onwards?
They have enough talent to finish top 4. They rely heavily on Dangerfield and Selwood, but their second tier of players (Duncan, Guthrie, Taylor, Hawkins, Menegola, Tuohy and Tim Kelly) will be very important as teams continually focus on Dangerfield and Sellwood. If they get to the finals and can have Ablett, Dangerfield, Selwood, Menegola, Kelly, Duncan and Guthrie running through the middle feeding Hawkins and Menzel whilst Tuohy and Taylor handle the backline, they are every chance to win the premiership. Especially if they play interstate teams here in Melbourne.
In three years time when Selwood, Dangerfield and Ablett are pretty much done, then they can think about rebuilding (and they’ll probably snag someone through free agency). But whilst they are around, they should be trying their best to be contenders.
They weren’t happy with the Hawkins/Menzel pairing last year. Hence trying Taylor, Black, Buzza, Henderson, Stanley… and probably everyone else over 6’3” that I’ve forgotten… forward. And finals wouldn’t have done much to change that, the only game they didn’t get absolutely hammered was on the back of, drum roll please, P Dangerfield kicking 4.
He won’t have to carry an injury riddled midfield. He also wouldn’t have to ruin his body during the regular season just to give his team a chance to make finals. He’ll be played as much forward as he would in the midfield.
I think he’s a pretty good chance to play three more seasons.
The most interesting thing will be how not being the man will affect his attitude.
Although even if that’s an issue, hes still going to play two more. He’ll just be frustrating.
Motlop, Lonergan and Mackie played almost all the games last year, so they will leave a whole. Expect Taylor to go back to defence. Crameri up forward, or if he doesnt make it maybe Black
Im hoping Thurlow can come on this year being a Tassie boy and get a permanent spot in the team. Crameri could do well up forward and expec Ablett and Dangerfield to also spend time down there. With Motlop gone, Scott would hope that Cockatoo and Parfitt are fit enough to play most of the games and avoid injury.
Prediction 2nd - 6th
I think they can be as good as last year. They have a good top 5. But come the end of the year, cant see them winning on the last day in September. And if injuries hit, to their top 3, they could be in trouble. The edge of the cliff is nearing.
Ablett>Motlop
Taylor > Lonergan
Crameri fwd > Taylor
Mackie - lose experience but gives opportunity to youngster tom play bigger role. - Koldashnij
Just on the topic of 3 more years, it wouldn’t surprise me if Selwood battles through those 3 years. He battled a few injuries last year and his effectiveness was down a bit IMO. His numbers only dropped very slightly.
But he’s played 250 games in a very hard, contested fashion and he turns 30 in May. It will be interesting to see how much more his body has left to give
Anyone 30+yo with any sort of injury history is a year to year prospect.
He might be the fourth (?) player in the AFL era to play to 36, but it would be very very long odds.