So... should we mock those who wouldn't make plans for September?

Football Discussion Dustin Fletcher Hangar
1082

Anyone thinking we are a good chance at winning any match in the finals is dillisional.

We won’t be able to match finals style intensity with any team other than Melbourne. Richmond will tear us apart. Sydney will almost be unbeatable at the SCG. Port Adelaide are our best chance even at Adelaide oval. We’ve beaten them.

But I still don’t trust us in the finals. Too many of our players crumble under pressure, and that’s just our experienced players. We’ll be expecting our younger guys to carry the load of players who have yet to perform in our last 2-3 finals appearances. If we’re any chance, it will be solely off Daniher.

If we’re going to lose a match in the finals I’d rather it not be against Richmond.

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1083

I don’t agree with this at all.
Their chances of completely disintegrating in Finals is strong IMO.

1084

whats with all the negative people?

we’re on the verge of making finals and everyones talking about us being no chance in week 1

am i the only positive one here and actually believe we can win a final?

why follow afl if you arent pumped to see your team in the finals

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1085

Freo getting done by 100+ before playing Essendon is better than any script writer could’ve dreamed up. Perfect situation for us to lose.

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1086

Not the only one Chris. Plenty on here need to harden up.

1087

No, you’re not.
It’s a rabid, very vocal and farking annoying, minority.

The site owner:
Freo getting done by 100+ before playing Essendon is better than any script writer could’ve dreamed up. Perfect situation for us to lose.

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1088

Before the season began l said Essendon would play multiple finals this year. l have no reason to change that call now. Sydney, Port, Tigers whoever, it doesn’t matter.

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1089

lol

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1090

Freo lost to Sydney last week by 104 and to Richmond this week by the same amount.

So we should concentrate on inflicting a hat trick of losses of over 100 points.

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1091

Absolutely agree.

Mate, if we went on and won the flag this year, this board would be clogged with people complaining that we might not make it a multi flag dynasty.

Some people just enjoy being miserable. As Abed from Community eloquently put it, “I like liking things”.

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1092
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1093

  • 2009 last round.
    We played a Hawthorn side who had struggled for most of the season, minus Roughy and Franklin.
    Yet we were still looking at a 5 goals plus deficit late in the 1st half.
    Lloyd’s crude bump and some Hurley heroics got us over the line, but it was less than convincing.
    The next week, we were duly thrashed.

  • 2011 last round.
    Whilst we had little to play for (couldn’t go higher or lower than 8th), a comfortable win against a Port side sitting on 3 wins was expected.
    That we were looking at an almost 6 goal deficit did not sit well with me watching that game.
    The comeback and ultimate win did nothing to fill me with confidence leading into a Finals Series.
    The following week, we were duly dispatched by the Blues.

  • 2014 last round.
    We were playing a lowly Carlton side who had struggled to a modest 7 wins for the season.
    Only needed a win to ensure 7th, and an MCG Final first week.
    We coughed up a big lead, regained control, then gave up the initiative again in the last qtr.
    Ultimately lucky to get out of it with a draw.
    Following week against North we were better, but our inconsistency would bite us in the 2nd half.
    Another disappointing Finals performance after leading by 5-6 goals early in the 3rd.

We need to win convincingly next week and play some good footy.
If we fall over the line, we’ll get creamed again in an Elimination Final.
No point deluding ourselves.

We MUST approach the Freo game with the same intensity that we intend to exhibit Week 1 of Finals !

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1094

I expect Freo to put up a fight after 2x 104 point losses

However If this team can’t see what is at stake and at least get a comfortable win than there is something seriously wrong with this club

I’m talking serious "tell me about your father "style therapy sessions

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1095

Questioning if we’re good enough is not being negative.

Do I hope we can win the first week of the finals? Of course.

Do I hope we win the premiership? Yes.

But

Am I confident of winning the first week of the finals?
Hell no. And evidence suggests we should not be confident. We have been a disgrace in our past finals matches, and our best players have crumbled under finals intensity. Plus We don’t carry form that suggests we can beat any team we’re likely to play.

You can only go on evidence to gain confidence. And evidence says we should expect another first week finals loss.

I will support the team like every other mad supporter and hope we can win. But I don’t think we can.

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1096

I should add that even after we lost to Brisbane, I said we should still play finals.

I’m an optimist generally, but now the season is actually on the line I think nervousness presents itself as defensive pessimism.

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1097

OK. So some detailed scenarios (assuming we win).
Calculating what WC need depending on our margin and score, and Adelaide scores.

We win by 1 51-50
A: 50, WC: 83, Margin: 33
A: 60, WC: 94, Margin: 34
A: 70, WC: 104, Margin: 34
A: 80, WC: 115, Margin: 35
A: 90, WC: 126, Margin: 36

We win by 1 101-100
A: 50, WC: 81, Margin: 31
A: 60, WC: 91, Margin: 31
A: 70, WC: 102, Margin: 32
A: 80, WC: 112, Margin: 32
A: 90, WC: 123, Margin: 33

We win by 31 81-50
A: 50, WC: 111, Margin: 61
A: 60, WC: 122, Margin: 62
A: 70, WC: 133, Margin: 63
A: 80, WC: 144, Margin: 64
A: 90, WC: 154, Margin: 64

We win by 31 131-100
A: 50, WC: 108, Margin: 58
A: 60, WC: 119, Margin: 59
A: 70, WC: 129, Margin: 59
A: 80, WC: 140, Margin: 60
A: 90, WC: 151, Margin: 61

Bottom line is obviously our winning margin is important, but having a low scoring game and them having a high scoring helps our % differential.

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1098

Its always an ugly time of year… but I will 100% be barracking for the Pies next weekend… if they can somehow manage to beat Melbourne… by 1 points… then I will be happy (after having a shower and therapy session).

To me that is the best outcome possible… if Melbourne somehow fark up and lose… then we 100% control our destiny as we will know exactly how much we need to win by to pass them… and then the WCE game doesn’t matter.

Plan B is for us to smash Freo by 100… there is no way WCE are beating crows by that margin… no matter how little effort they are putting in.

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1099

I just don’t want another finals embarassment. No north 2014 no Carlton 2011. Just a win please.

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1100

If we win a final blitz will go off probably like never before.

I so badly want to see us win a final. I still remember going to the last winning final in 04 against melbourne. Feels like a lifetime ago

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1101

The thing is that we’re just as likely to come out at 80% efficiency and kick 22.4 and beat anyone anywhere in Week 1.

But try it again the next week and no chance.

If we’re lucky, we’ve got one perfect game in us and if it’s week one of the finals then enjoy it but don’t expect a repeat effort the next week.

The only thing we’re consistent of is not having any consistency.

We’ve got to make finals yet - hoping we win ugly against Freo and other results fall our way and then go bang week 1