I thought this could be a good place to discuss our finals hopes.
As it stands, after 16 games we are just outside the 8, with 8 wins and a decent run home. 6 games to go (Norf, Dogs, Crows, Blues, GCS away, Freo), 5 of them against teams below us on the ladder, so we should start favourites in all except the Crows game (which is at Etihad and I think we have a good chance of winning it if we have managed to beat Norf & Dogs in the leadup).
It would seem that we will need to win 5 of the 6 games to ensure finals action, 4 probably won’t be enough.
I think we have the best chance of dislodging Melbourne or the Saints, but hot on our heals are West Coast who also have a pretty good run home.
In our favour, our injury list is pretty good, we are still getting better and we have a lot of pressure on us to make sure we are motivated to win. We have rested players throughout the season so they are fresh and we have some decent depth in the VFL with Stanton (36 touches, 2 goals), Laverde (6 goals)and Langford (4 goals) all putting their hand up plus a host of enthusiastic kids, dont forget Smack and Luey have been threatening alongside Howlett, Jerret & Hocking.
What we do know is that we are capable of doing some damage in finals NOW, but we haven’t been playing like it for half of the season, whereas the teams in the 8 have, so its all about what we can do from now on.
Recent history suggests there is no frigging way we can win 83% of our remaining games, because we are inconsistent and we havent won more than 2 in a row, and we lost to the bottom side 3 weeks ago. Basically all of the games we would like to pencil in as wins are danger games.
We also play a style that is exciting and damaging, but it also leaves us spent after 3 quarters and susceptible to being over-run late in games. It can also mean it’s hard to get “up” each week especially with short turn arounds, and that injuries might be lurking around the corner.
Woosha did say our 2nd half of the season would be much better, but we have won 2 in a row to get to this point, 7 wins from our last 8 matches would be extraordinary.
So. Who among you think we can play finals? Why or why not?
Personally, Im of the belief that we will make it. But so much can go wrong between now and then.