I’m going place $10 on every game this year 74 point win, I’ll Jag one.
Club by club: The secrets to Essendon snapping dreaded finals streak
Essendon has an infamous finals hoodoo stretching back to 2004. Will 2024 be the year it’s broken? And if so, who needs to step up in order to make it happen? SAM LANDSBERGER breaks it down.
Sam Landsberger
7:00pm January 08, 2024
Brad Scott has a deeper list with an added dose of quality that has long been desired to build on last year’s 11 wins.
Scott has also had time to design the football department he believes can cement the foundations for long-term success.
But supporters are screaming for a September win after a 20-year wait.
Can it be this year? Why not.
ESSENDON
Coach: Brad Scott
Captain: Zach Merrett
What happened in 2023?
The Bombers topped the ladder after round 6 (for the first time since 2013) and sat fifth after round 17.
But Damien Hardwick thought they were a “bunch of spuds”, and by the end of the season those spuds had a musty stench.
They fell in against North Melbourne and West Coast and were then outscored 263-67 by Greater Western Sydney and Collingwood as both their defensive profile and offensive flair disintegrated.
The kids didn’t have the strength or power to push through to the finish line with key players Jordan Ridley, Sam Draper, Jake Stringer, Peter Wright, Jye Caldwell, Matt Guelfi and Jake Kelly sidelined.
Perhaps Scott sensed they would run out of puff when he blamed Gather Round for extending the season to 23 games.
The fitness factor should be easy to fix.
But of greater concern are suggestions Scott implemented a brand of football not cut out for finals.
The Bombers were easy to move the ball against, gave up more inside-50s than almost anyone, and played a safe kick-and-catch brand — even though bulk uncontested marks have been usurped by chaos and speed in the modern game.
They monstered Melbourne and Adelaide around the ball in impressive wins and premiership coach Simon Goodwin sat at Marvel Stadium privately stunned at how hot the Dons got against the Crows.
But outside that, they lacked bite.
Who is their Brayden Maynard, or Dean Wallis of yesteryear?
Does Darcy Parish’s output diminish sharply against the top teams?
Were they too top-heavy going in with two rucks (Draper and Andrew Phillips) plus Wright? Remarkably, Kyle Langford trained all pre-season in the midfield, started the season in defence and then kicked 51 goals to finish equal-eighth in the Coleman Medal.
Langford has loved his time in the forward line this summer.
He is a complete player — tough to match-up on because he is so agile, quick and a good size.
Zach Merrett’s elevation to skipper was also a huge success.
Merrett was vice-captain of eight junior teams, but never the main man.
Last year he filled a notebook with learnings and he would often pull players aside for a private moment to offer guidance.
The four-time Crichton Medallist never asked a teammate to do something he would not be willing to do and sponged off underrated figure Dyson Heppell, a selfless star who wakes at 5.45am most days to meditate and take an ice bath.
ESSENDON BEST 23
FB: A. McGrath, B. McKay, Z. Reid
HB: J. Ridley, J. Laverde, M. Redman
C: X. Duursma, W. Setterfield, N. Martin
HF: J. Gresham, H. Jones, S. Durham
FF: K. Langford, P. Wright, J. Stringer
F: T. Goldstein, Caldwell, Merrett
I: D. Heppell, D. Parish, E. Tsatas, N. Cox. Sub: A. Perkins
Where do they finish in 2024?
Excuses have expired.
About 15 players — including teenager Elijah Tsatas and an effective stranger in Gresham — paid their way to Arizona to train alongside elite American athletes at Exos.
Focusing on maximum speeds and dynamic movement in short bursts proved less boring than Fartlek running in Melbourne.
Back at Tullamarine, psychologist Dr Ben Robbins — who has helped St Kilda players including Jack Higgins control their breathing when taking set-shots — started as mental skills coach.
David Rath – who spent 2023 with ex-Wallabies coach Eddie Jones — signed on in a coaching innovation role and has helped plan and review training sessions.
McKay’s first impression was of a program packed with far more detail than he experienced at Arden St.
For those questioning his contract (involving a $1.5 million paycheck in 2024) it’s worth remembering Jesse Hogan (nine goals), Tom Hawkins (eight) and Matt Taberner (seven) lead a long list of bags booted against the Bombers in recent years.
Hawks coach Sam Mitchell tracked McKay closely in the second half of last year and believed that at his best McKay was an elite fullback, which is why his club tabled a similar offer.
McKay has played under six coaches for just eight wins since he was drafted in 2015.
Scott promised childhood Dons fan Goldstein that he would persist with playing two rucks and at Arden St, Goldstein was loved for coaching his craft to the likes of Braydon Preuss, Majak Daw, Tristan Xerri and Callum Coleman-Jones, so Draper and Nick Bryan should sponge his wisdom.
That said, Goldstein is going at it like a teenager and is expected to play around a dozen games.
Rath has pulled Parish and Tsatas to the side to tinker with their kicking techniques, while the summer focus has also been spent searching for a speedy halfback.
The Bombers never really replaced Conor McKenna or Adam Saad and with Massimo D’Ambrosio now gone, too, they are reprogramming one of their own to help Andy McGrath and Mason Redman bounce out of the backline.
Could it be Jayden Davey — yes, Jayden, the more talented twin of Alwyn — zigging and zagging out of defence one day?
But can Davey — or anyone — really be their Nick Daicos or Jack Sinclair?
Scott has also been seduced by the idea Nik Cox — who at 200cm runs like the wind — becoming a Nick Blakey type in that role.
Another unsolved brain teaser is where to deploy Archie Perkins.
As a big onballer he runs towards the pill and bumps and bruises the likes of Dangerfield, Dawson at Cripps at stoppages, but in contrast as a forward is told to run away from the ball.
Perkins is a gun one-on-one, either in the air on the ground, although knows his reaction times and ability to get to spots to impact matches must improve.
The last time Jake Stringer entered a contract season he stormed to the home-and-away finish line as the No. 1 player in the game, and so the Bombers would be mad to talk turkey soon. Heppell wants players in the Guelfi and Harry Jones age bracket to up their leadership duties while fitness staff have had to muzzle draftees Caddy and Archie Roberts, who are champing at the bit.
The Bombers largely remain an unknown quantity because so many beautiful types are yet to go ‘boom’.
Perkins has played 62 games (only Errol Gulden has played more from the 2020 draft) and he and Cox both turn 22 soon — it is time for them to put up.
Tsatas has genuine X-Factor and if Jones, Reid and Hobbs all go ‘boom’ then this team will have the talent to beat anyone.
Biggest improver in 2024?
Sam Durham will celebrate his 50th game in round 1. Track spotters say his next 100 could be even better.
He’s been the man over summer – looking seriously strong – and his two-sided play with super agility could be deployed on the inside and up forward after spending last season on the wing.
It was a Redman-Durham quinella at the time trial as they smashed the rest and Durham was once nicknamed ‘Whopper’ – appropriate given how big he has become.
The Seymour boy was an apprentice carpenter who starred at basketball, footy and athletics as a kid and — like Jye Menzie, another mid-season gem — he has also sponged off housemate Andy McGrath.
Sydney wanted to draft the Richmond VFL player but the Bombers, whose interest had been a mystery, swooped before the Swans or Tigers had a pick.
How Scott manages his midfield magnets will be fascinating because Durham is certain to be squeezed into a set that was already overloaded by Merrett, Parish, Caldwell, Hobbs, Setterfield, Perkins and Shiel.
Caldwell is a bull, Setterfield is tall and Shiel and Merrett’s elite vision help them when the ball spills — but there is a lot of sameness.
Duursma and Nic Martin will light up the wings, where Martin shines as a two-way runner who gets to the right spots and Duursma will dial up what he delivers simply by running traditional up-and-down running patterns.
At Port Adelaide he was instead often asked to sacrificially sprint away from the Sherrin in order to open up space for the likes of superstars Zak Butters and Connor Rozee.
X-factor
Jordan Ridley.
Meet Essendon’s version of Tom Stewart, the five-time all-Australian who has simply become impassable at halfback for the Cats.
Plenty would not know this, but Ridley is a remarkable kick.
In fact, when Ridley was allowed to play as a roadblock against Hawthorn’s undersized attack last year he actually kicked at 25 per cent above expectation — which is off the charts and bettered Nick Daicos.
The arrival of McKay, as well as a fit Zach Reid (who has grown to 205cm) to consider, will return Ridley to the roadblock role.
The prospect of an A-grader shining brighter because of the big boys brought in to support him must be revitalising.
Ridley entered 2020 with nine games under his belt … and won the best-and-fairest that year, and has finished in the top five every year since.
In 2023, he finished fifth despite missing six games and getting injured in two others.
Reid and Cox — elite kicks on both feet — are other X-factor options, and is it too soon to hype up Caddy?
The key forward thought he was off to West Coast when Geelong traded pick 10 at the draft, but it was the Dons who craved Caddy because they wanted an extroverted goalkicker with a bubbly personality.
Someone to say, ‘Come on, boys, let’s go’ — which he did in last month’s 30-minute match simulation by kicking three goals and taking a screamer on Jayden Laverde.
Caddy won 50 per cent of his junior possessions contested, which mirrored Tom Hawkins and Charlie Curnow,and with hair bleached at his sister’s salon, his taste of VFL games last year created an inner confidence he would be ready to rock at AFL.
Caddy wanted to wear No. 11, but that went to Gresham.
But a better wish — wearing No. 30 in an early-season debut — is a big chance.
Coach status
Gillon McLachlan privately told Ross Lyon before his return to St Kilda “don’t do it in 12 months”.
The Saints are scaffolding in young talent in the search for sustained success.
Brad Scott has a similar message, which has been broadcast through president David Barham’s vision to make fans proud again.
That vision means Scott is secure for several seasons.
Assistants say he has presence, a photographic memory and watches a lot of football.
Scott also has an AFL coach-in-waiting in Daniel Giansiracusa, who is mentored by renowned psychologist Pippa Grange, and beefed-up resources such as Rath and Robbins this year.
But the patience of fans is a real issue regardless of whether Scott thinks it is fair to judge their improvement on ladder positions.
He has already flagged teething issues as four ready-made recruits slot into the 23, saying cohesion is a “real risk for us at the start of the year”.
The focus should go on the gamestyle.
Will the Bombers be too top-heavy and rely on marking targets again?
Or will they manufacture speed and transition to run-and-gun their way to a breakthrough bit of September success?
But the best part about Brad is Tullamarine’s universal trust placed in a man because it is so bleedingly obvious he knows what he is doing.
Perhaps not since James Hird or Mark Thompson has the buy-in from players been so strong, which the consistent exodus of stars in-between probably underlines.
Who is in last year of contract?
Andy McGrath, Archie Perkins, Dylan Shiel, Dyson Heppell, Elijah Tsatas, Harry Jones, Jaiden Hunter, Jake Kelly, Jake Stringer, Jayden Davey, Jye Caldwell, Jye Menzie, Kaine Baldwin, Lewis Hayes, Matt Guelfi, Nick Hind, Nik Cox, Sam Durham, Sam Weideman, Tex Wanganeen, Todd Goldstein, Vigo Visentini, Will Setterfield
Outs from 2023
Massimo D’Ambrosio (traded to Hawthorn), Brandon Zerk-Thatcher (traded to Port Adelaide), Alastair Lord, Cian McBride, Rhett Montgomerie, Anthony Munkarra, Will Snelling, James Stewart, Patrick Voss (delisted), Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, Anthony Phillips (retired)
Ins for 2024
Nate Caddy (drafted at No. 10), Archie Roberts (drafted at No. 54), Xavier Duursma (traded from Port Adelaide), Todd Goldstein (free agent from North Melbourne), Jade Gresham (free agent from St Kilda), Ben McKay (free agent from North Melbourne), Vigo Visentini (rookie)
ESSENDON’S FIRST SIX
The predictions from Essendon’s first six rounds.
Rd 1 Hawthorn @ MCG (W)
Rd 2 Sydney @ SCG (L)
Rd 3 St Kilda @ Marvel (W)
Rd 4 Port Adelaide @ AO (L)
Rd 5 Western Bulldogs @ Marvel (W)
Rd 6 Adelaide @ AO (L)
(Prediction: 3-3)
Breaking Badness
True Crime Australia
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Can’t help but get excited when it’s layed out like that, we are seriously due to click.
Is Landsberger a Bombers supporter ?
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Impressive from Ridley to win the B&F after only 9 games in previous seasons.
That would be like Zach Reid (8 games) winning it this year.
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We will be 1-6 after the first 7 games. The Hawks game is the only game we win.
It’s a pretty tough first few rounds imo but then again every game is going to be tough to win.
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Hopefully our new look with new players and emerging youth may be difficult for oppo to deal with. Also, hoping bigger, fitter and determined is the case!?
Wow the same exception proved the rule. Amazing. I’m in your thoughts though 
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I’m hopeful I get to bring it up all year 
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‘Jayden Davey - the more talented brother of Alwyn’
I’ve got a watch on this uncited strand of opinion. It gets repeated every now and then with zero credible basis.
And no, the third-hand Xavier Football coach source is not sufficient.
A couple of interesting points from the Landsberger article that I didn’t know beforehand.
Caddy won 50% of his possession from contested footy and Sydney were also interested in Durham.
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Sucked in Bin Chickens and tigers.
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B: Ridley McKay McGrath
HB: Redman Reid Heppell
C: Duursma Setterfield Martin
HF: Perkins Jones Gresham
F: Menzie Wright Langford
R: Goldstein Parish Merrett
I/C: Durham Hobbs Caldwell Hind
Sub: Tsatas
Emg: Laverde Guelfi Cox
*No Shiel, Draper & Stringer (inj/underdone)
Not a bad effort, but I’d make some minor tweaks,
B: Ridley McKay McGrath
HB: Redman Reid Heppell
C: Duursma Setterfield Martin
HF: Perkins Langford Durham
F: Menzie Wright Gresham
R: Goldstein Parish Merrett
I/C: Laverde Hobbs Caldwell Hind
Sub: Guelfi
Emg: Jones Guelfi Cox
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why Laverde on the bench?
Very similar to mine although I have Baldwin in place of Heppell.
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Ginnivan and possibly Watson in their foward line will require attention. Hind, Kelly, Lual, Roberts?
If both play it will require another small defender?
Davey on Watson?
I’d take another small lockdown. McGrath can rebound but be careful.
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I reckon this is getting very close.
Personally I’d give Hind and Durham starting spots over Heppell and Duursma, though that’s just splitting hairs.
However, I’ll be surprised if Brad leaves out either Laverde or Kelly for round 1.
Ideally by the end of the year, Draper is back fit and has replaced Goldy, Baldwin has replaced Lav, one of Lual or Roberts is putting pressure on Hind’s spot, Cox is putting pressure on Heppell’s spot and Tsatas is entrenched in the squad. And the Daveys are thereabouts.
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Are you suggesting he should be out of the side or starting on the field?