The Forest from the Trees: A post for the stats nerds


GWS best player a defender, worst player their #1 Key Forward. Says it all.


neither of them laid a tackle…

says it all.


I suppose they don’t want to change the algorithms during the season for this stuff they proudly tweet out every week. They really need to.


Model agrees with my proclamations that Cameron was a spud.


Jimmy Stewart not at all happy with CD.


CD does not show much love for Ridley


Some things never change.

Frees for per game: 18.3 (16th)
Frees against: 20.8 (10th)
Differential: -2.5 (14th)

Most free kicks for: Zach Merrett (15, 30th) 2017: Zach Merrett (37, 13th)
Most free kicks against: James Stewart (18, 10th) 2017: Joe Daniher (41, 8th)

Three free kick facts:

  1. Essendon has the highest ratio of any club for receiving free kicks for pushes in the back (20.9 per cent of its frees).
  2. The Bombers have only two players in the top-50 for free kicks over the past two seasons (Zach Merrett and Dyson Heppell). Heppell has won 14 for being held without the ball.
  3. A whopping 43 per cent of the 37 free kicks Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti has won have been for holding the ball, evidence of his tackling pressure. - Callum Twomey



Most free kicks for: Patrick Dangerfield (27, 3rd) 2017: Joel Selwood (70, 1st)
Most free kicks against: Tom Hawkins (21, 6th) 2017: Patrick Dangerfield (36, 14th)

Three free kick facts:

  1. In the past two seasons, high tackles have contributed to 15.9 per cent of Geelong’s free kicks against – the fewest of any team’s breakdown across the league.
  2. From 31 games in his past two seasons, Joel Selwood has received 49 head-high free kicks – 23 more than the next highest, Brisbane’s Rhys Mathieson. Selwood (95) and Patrick Dangerfield (88) top the league for free kicks for in that time.
  3. Since the start of 2017, 22.6 per cent of Geelong’s frees against have been for holding the man – the most of any team in the competition. - Mitch Cleary

Joel Selwood has led the League in free kicks for since the start of 2017.

Invites it. Welcome to the head trauma unit Joel Selwood.


Because it never gets old


Cracking piece this.

TL:dr - Bellchambers is killing it as a straight up ruckman (#4) but is in the bottom half for his around the ground contributions.

Going to go up against Nankervis who is slightly below average for hitouts but one of the best around the ground types.


Getting first use with high quality clearances on the burst out of the middle ( eg Stringer, Fantasia) was huge for us last week.


Yes interesting article. It says Richmond try to limit the number of ruck contests and keep the ball in play. ( Nankervis is 19th in the AFL for average hitouts ) so we need to force stoppages. Even a tackle without release is good for us. TBell is 5th in the league for Hitouts to Advantage , Nankervis 17th. This alone is going to be a significant factor for us as long as Dusty does not bustle his way in and shark our taps. Nankervis himself wins 1 more clearance per game than TBell on average so that should not be too significant.


Our best according to CD ratings. Curiously Smith is not on this list. CD algorithms obviously don’t rate pressure, when its the flavour of the week across the AFL.

Many would be surprised to see TBell up there. Clearly now recognised as a key factor in our midfield performance in each match.

Our best players under 25 according to CD ratings. Relative to age and position expectations.


Single handedly won the last two premierships.

CD: nah we don’t rate it…


Heppell is 26yo, but whatevs.


So a lot of talk going on about our “pressure rating” being over 200 last 3 weeks. Anyone have the explanation for what actually goes into that stat?




2-year window…?


The numbers are remarkably slow to move for those player ratings, which was marked at the start of last year with players low coming off the ban. Not my favourite metrics. All the people coming in ■■■■■■■■ on stats though need to get out, read the first post!


A decent read: