The Forest from the Trees: A post for the stats nerds

I think the Lions exploited it perfectly today…spare players behind the ball early… then move them forward and run over Essendon later (even with one less player on the bench).

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They showed it during the sydney game. We’re winning the first quarter by a lot, breaking even across the second, losing third and fourth quarters by a fair bit.

I saw a forest yesterday. A bunch of blokes standing like trees while the worst side in the comp picked them apart. Yeah, I saw the forest yesterday.

Ill try to find the link, but yes we are a very fast starting team. Not quite the same thing, but this illustrates a similar point
Time in front, vs Wins

Coming into this round, we’d spent over 60% of the season ‘in front’ for a sub 50% win rate. Geelong’s amazing 4th quarters are well reflected here also.

Has anyone done, or could anyone please do up some stats on the percentage of H&A games that Essendon has won since 2009, when we started as favourites with the bookies?

I am not sure where to find historical odds data, otherwise I’d do it myself.

Quarter by quarter stats are at the bottom

We have won 79% of first quarters this, ranked 1st in the league.

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“We have so much data that you’ll never be able to see except through the eyes of David King. So enjoy that”

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Yep, I just don’t get it. Id happily pay them an annual subscription up to say $50 or so. The subsequent divorce would cost me more obviously.

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I emailed champion data and asked them if it was possible to get a subscription - no reply. Its been AFLed. Its a pity because they don’t do much with it, at least for the punters at home - I am sure the clubs use it well. Unless you count Kingys quality material of course

@BringBackBoris , I have been trialling a new model I am calling AutoTipungwuti, or AutoTippa for short which uses a machine learning approach and a series of new (I think) data inputs such as some scaled super coach metrics, % best 22, some Elo derivations etc. PM if you ever want to chat about it, I love this ■■■■.

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absolute plebs need to get a life.

I have been pretty big on these for a while too. Great to see some real analytical analysis being done rather than the absolute crap spewed by David king (and others like him) with his merry stats men with their crayons.

I can only hope that the EFC have taken some serious notice of some of the insights these guys are throwing up as it can really effect your long term drafting and trading strategy.

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But… but… they are always so busy writing, workings things out, studying the replay footage, sorting through their paperwork and so on, every time they cut to THE LAB!

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Hello and thank you for your post on Bomberblitz, the Essendon fan forum.

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Nice of them to take the time to come into this thread and confess their idiocy to everyone.

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Thought this would be the appropriate thread to ask a question of the stats / history / anomaly nerds.

Don’t know how I missed it but last night realised that GWS not only had 2 draws recently, which just having 2 in one season is quite rare,… but they actually had them in successive weeks, … 2 draws in a row!!

Has that EVER happened before?

In 1921, Carlton put back-to-back draws together in Rounds 4 and 5 against Fitzroy and South Melbourne

http://www.theroar.com.au/2017/07/11/the-giants-consecutive-draws-is-history-repeating/

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Stats fantastic!

Thanks for the links, I hadn’t seen those sites before. The Squiggle is pretty cool.

Essendon would have people employed to look at this constantly. A friend of mine works in this space for one if the west Aussie teams. The data analysis and performance measures are far more predictive and sophisticated than anything you would see in the media.

Its true, I went and saw Sam Robertson from the bulldogs give a talk on some of the stuff they are doing in partnership with the bulldogs and its pretty sophisticated (and apparently working).

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