The Forest from the Trees: A post for the stats nerds


#461

It’s rubbish and doesn’t deserve attention.


#462

Josh Gibson was winning B&F’s in premiership years but for some reason rarely gets a mention in ‘best of’ arguments.


#463

Isolating individuals in a game with 18 on the field is inherently difficult (flawed?) yet it’s literally what 3/4 of this forum is about (the rest is Nino and DJ king). It’s no different for stats.

Regarding team defence, I think it’s fair to say Lynden Dunn benefitted from playing in a side with manic pressure. But even with that factored in, he’s clearly had a fair season.


#464

One On One is one of the simplest metrics to define in a game - It’s when two players are contesting an aerial ball - Nothing more or nothing less - And the Hurley figures seem about right - And arguments about Hurley being an extra defender have no bearing on this stat.


#465

Absolute rubbish.

Unless you know the exact question, the answer is meaningless and interpretable. No stats of this sort given to the public, without absolute clarity regarding the process, mean anything other than what you want it to mean.

Anyway - once again, one of those subjects that is far too deep to discuss properly here.


#466

One on One is One on One, no matter how you cut it, dice it or spin it.


#467

You’re underestimating the sophistication of CD and their highly trained stats people / observers.
They can devise definitions so cunning they’re beyond the ken of mortal supporters.


#468

Not all stats are created equal

HAVE you ever wondered what a ground kick is?

Below are the definitons of all the key stats used by Champion Data. Note, we have left the self-explanatory stats blank.

BAULK Using deception as the ball carrier to beat an opponent, by sidestepping or feigning disposal.
BEHIND A minor score, as judged by the goal umpire. Behinds are worth one point to a team’s total score.
BEHIND ASSIST Creating a behind by getting the ball to a teammate either via a disposal, knock-on, ground kick or hit-out, or by winning a free kick before the advantage is paid to the goal scorer.
BLOCK Effectively shepherding an opponent out of a contest to the benefit of a teammate.
BROKEN TACKLE Evading a tackle attempt by an opponent and legally disposing of the ball in space.
CLANGER HANDBALL Handballs that give possession directly to the opposition.
CLANGER KICK Kicks that give possession directly to the opposition.
CLEARANCE Credited to the player who has the first effective disposal in a chain that clears the stoppage area, or an ineffective kick or clanger kick that clears the stoppage area.
CONTESTED KNOCK ON Using the hand to knock the ball to a teammate’s advantage rather than attempting to take possession from a contested situation.
CONTESTED MARK When a player takes a mark under physical pressure of an opponent or in a pack.
CONTESTED MARK FROM OPP
CONTESTED MARK FROM TEAM
CONTESTED POSSESSION A possession which has been won when the ball is in dispute. Includes looseball-gets, hardball-gets, contested marks, gathers from a hit-out and frees for.
CRUMB A type of groundball-get that is won by a player at ground level after a marking contest. The player must not be involved in the original contest. Crumbing Possessions can be either hardball or looseball-gets.
DISPOSAL Legally getting rid of the ball, via a handball or kick.
EFFECTIVE DISPOSAL
EFFECTIVE HANDBALL A handball to a teammate that hits the intended target.
EFFECTIVE KICK A kick of more than 40 metres to a 50/50 contest or better for the team or a kick of less than 40 metres that results in the intended target retaining possession.
FIRST POSSESSION The initial possession that follows a stoppage, including a looseball-get, hardball-get, intended ball-get (gather), free kick or ground kick.
FREE AGAINST When an infringement occurs resulting in the opposition receiving a free kick from the umpires.
FREE FOR When a player is interfered with and is awarded a free kick by the umpires.
GATHER Possessions that were a result of a teammate deliberately directing the ball in the player’s direction, via a hit-out, disposal or knock-on, excluding marks and handball receives. Gathers from a hit-out are contested possessions the rest are uncontested.
GATHER FROM HIT-OUT A possession gained from a teammate’■■■■■-out to advantage. Counted as a contested possession.
GOAL A major score, as judged by the goal umpire. Worth six points to a team’s total score.
GOAL ASSIST Creating a goal by getting the ball to a teammate either via a disposal, knock-on, ground kick or hitout, or by winning a free kick before the advantage is paid to the goal scorer.
GROUND BALL GET Contested possessions won at ground level, excluding free kicks. Groundball gets can either be hardball gets or looseball gets.
GROUND KICK A deliberate kick without taking possession that gains either significant distance from the point of contact or an uncontested possession for a teammate.
HANDBALL Disposing of the ball by hand.
HARDBALL GET A disputed ball at ground level under direct physical pressure or out of a ruck contest, resulting in an opportunity to effect a legal disposal.
HIT-OUT Knocking the ball out of a ruck contest following a stoppage with clear control, regardless of which side wins the following contest at ground level.
HIT-OUT SHARK Winning clear possession of the ball from the opposition ruck’■■■■■-out.
HIT-OUT SHARKED A hit-out that directly results in an opponent’s possession.
HIT-OUT TO ADVANTAGE A hit-out that reaches an intended teammate.
HOLD Holding the ball in when the umpire calls for a ball up.
INEFFECTIVE GROUND KICK Ground kicks that are not advantageous to the team, but do not directly turn the ball over to the opposition.
INEFFECTIVE HANDBALL Handballs that are not advantageous to the team, but do not directly turn the ball over to the opposition.
INEFFECTIVE KICK Kicks that are not advantageous to the team, but do not directly turn the ball over to the opposition.
INSIDE 50 Moving the ball from the midfield into the forward zone. Excludes multiple entries within the same chain of possession.
INSIDE 50 TARGET Recorded when a player inside the forward 50 is clearly the sole target of a teammate’s kick into the forward 50. The inside 50 target player will be recorded regardless of the outcome of the kick.
KICK
KICK BACKWARDS
KICK-IN When a player kicks the ball back into play after an opposition behind. Kick-ins are regarded as a function of the team and do not count as kicks, although they are similarly graded for quality.
KICK INSIDE 50 When a player records an inside 50 for his team by kicking the ball from the midfield zone into the forward line.
KICK LONG ADVANTAGE A long kick that results in an uncontested possession by a teammate. If an error is made by the player ‘receiving’ the kick, a ‘kick long to advantage’ is still recorded for the player kicking the ball.
KNOCK ON When a player uses his hand to knock the ball to a teammate’s advantage rather than attempting to take possession within his team’s chain of play.
LONG KICK A kick of more than 40 metres to a 50/50 contest or better for the team.
LOOSEBALL GET A disputed ball at ground level not under direct physical pressure that results in an opportunity to record a legal disposal.
MARK When a player cleanly catches (is deemed to have controlled the ball for sufficient time) a kicked ball that has travelled more than 15 metres without anyone else touching it or the ball hitting the ground.
MARK FROM OPP KICK
MARK FUMBLED Mark Fumbled
MARK ON LEAD An uncontested mark taken after outsprinting an opponent.
MARK PLAY ON Playing on immediately without retreating behind the mark.
MISSED TACKLES Attempted tackles that are missed, allowing the ball carrier to break into space.
ONE ON ONE CONTEST DEFENDER Being isolated in a one-on-one contest as the defender.
ONE ON ONE CONTEST TARGET Being isolated in a one-on-one contest as the target of the kick.
OUT ON THE FULL
REBOUND 50 Moving the ball from the defensive zone into the midfield.
RECEIVE HANDBALL An uncontested possession that is the result of a teammate’s handball.
RUCK HARDBALL GET Taking possession of the ball directly out of the ruck.
RUNNING BOUNCE Touching the ball to the ground, either directly or via a bounce, to allow a player to avoid being penalised for running too far.
SCORE ASSIST Creating a score by getting the ball to a teammate either via a disposal, knock-on, ground kick or hitout, or by winning a free kick before the advantage is paid to the goal scorer.
SHORT KICK A kick of less than 40 metres that results in the intended target retaining possession. Does not include kicks that are spoiled by the opposition.
SHOT AT GOAL
SMOTHER Suppressing an opposition disposal by either changing the trajectory of the ball immediately after the disposal or by blocking the disposal altogether.
SPOIL Knocking the ball away from a marking contest preventing an opponent from taking a mark.
SPOIL GAINING POSSESSION Spoils directed straight to a teammate.
SPOIL INEFFECTIVE Spoils directed straight to an opposition player.
TACKLE Using physical contact to prevent an opponent in possession of the ball from getting an effective disposal.
UNCONTESTED GATHER Winning possession of the ball uncontested at ground level.
UNCONTESTED MARK Marks taken under no physical pressure from an opponent. Includes marks taken on a lead and from opposition kicks.
UNCONTESTED MARK FROM OPP
UNCONTESTED MARK FROM TEAM
UNCONTESTED POSSESSION Possessions gained whilst under no physical pressure, either from a teammate’s disposal or an opposition’s clanger kick. Includes handball receives, uncontested marks (including lead marks) and intended ball gets from a disposal.

#469

Except you don’t start every one on one with P(win) = 0.5


#470

P(Half) +P(win #A) +P(win P2) + P(free for P1) +P(free for P2)=1
P(half) might be ~0.5 where 2 players are evenly matched.


#471

Good article this:


#472

If you did start every contest with the players having to work out the meaning of that formula, there would be a lot of stoppages in play.


#473

Heh, I stopped when I saw contested disposals include loose-ball collects and taking the free kick after (for example) Joe D has a set shot and kicks it out-on-the-full.


#474

But didn’t they all get 99.9 ATARs. That’s what the media always tells us!


#475

most stats nerds needed to do better with english, so anyone could care what they had to say.


#476

Or the rest of society could get some basic understanding of numeracy.


#477

most people have 20 toes and fingers, some 15.


#478

Heather mills has gone out for a hop. I am sure she will respond when she gets back.


#479

This is not the justifiably criticised CD player Ratings, this is arrived at by noting who is at each centre bounce, then noting if score results from that combination ( based on some rules we don’t know )

How could our average lot of ruckmen and mids be better than the elite combos of Melbourne and Collingwood at centre bounces?
How is it that the best midfield in the competition, Geelongs A list set of mids with 3 brownlow medals between them is not in the top 10 ?

It cannot possibly be true.

Quite clearly there is more to a midfields rating than that, because 5.6% is not good. At all.
Lets hope they worked on this in the off season.


#480

Again - this means little. It does not take into account any detail. Like for example - the opposing group of mids. The state of the game at any particular time. The weather. The ground. Comparisons to other combinations of mids from the same team. The momentum of the game at those points. Whether in a winning or losing position at the time. The time period logged. Game plan. Efficiency of ruckman. First possession efficiency. Who that was. Who it was opposed to. Opposition ruckman. Negators vs pure offensive.

I could go on indefinitely. The point is - statistics is data. Raw data is important and useful. Drawing clean, clear, itemised and listed conclusions from it approaches impossibility, unless you either have a very simple system, or compromise the result to appease the consuming audience. This is akin to that ridiculous screen put up in THE LAB.

The statistics for kick-ins is a far, far simpler stat. It narrows things down immensely from the clearance one. But the pure form of it would be - 1 player kicking the ball to another player, who tries to mark it. Basically - kick-to-kick. The more you add to that, the more it becomes complex until it gets to the stage of what I described above.