condolences @SplitRound on your demotion with the stash back
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Hello Tippa, Merv speaking.
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Nah.
Dodoro has another scapegoat.
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And after a string of absolute bangers, too.
Was trying to think of a way to assess RFK’s performance and came up with this method.
Essentially, it’s trying to come up with a way to assess how good our talent identification was at a given draft pick (i.e. did we pick the right player given what was available at our pick, and what was reasonably a possibility at our pick).
Method
- From 2014 to 2019 I looked back every player we took in the national draft, and saw whether a player drafted with the next 5 picks was a better player.
- if the player we chose was the best player, or it was pretty even, they got a tick. If not they got a cross
- you can count the total number of ticks to see how often we pick the right player at a pick
Example:
In 2015 we took Parish at 5 and Francis at 6. McKay went at 10. Parish would be a tick, but not Francis (Curnow at 12 is irrelevant)
Results
Obviously this is pretty subjective, but by my assessment we got the pick “right” 35% of the time.
I did the same exercise for Melbourne, Sydney, Hawthorn and Footscray. These teams got it right on average 51% of the time.
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Geez, that sounds like a fun exercise for the first two rounds of each draft. Less so for the later rounds.
I took a look at his hit rate of 150 game players vs other clubs a few weeks back and he didn’t fair well
Does that mean you did it for every club? It’s a decent method to try out, it’d be interesting to see where we sit overall.
I think if your going to rate RFK it needs to be the mid year draft picks. How has he gone there?
Only did it for the clubs I mentioned (I picked those clubs as I have felt they have been the best drafters historically)
If I get another quiet day at work, I’ll go through all the clubs
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As a general rule, I don’t think you can assess draft picks until they’ve had four years in the league. Which is why I cut it off at 2019. For that reason didn’t look at the mid season draft
Could probably do it for the rookie draft though
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Was Calum Mills a tick?
Forgot to say, I didn’t include F/S or academy selections. So none of Sydney’s academy selections are included
How many picks?
We have had a few in that mould. - Clarke, Mutch, Bird, Begley
could probably have hung on at other clubs, that didnt need to turn the list over so much.
Begley did show a bit of glamour early days, but never really got back after his knee.
His kicking for goal action was great but it went away too. Begley may have been a forward.
But all the other 3 were played forward with small midfield stints.
This is fantastic news!
Interesting exercise.
Having the first choice of a group of 5 players is an advantage, but having 4 choices immediately after, generally I’d expect the odds are one of the 4 is a better player.
If every team picked perfectly, each would score 100%. If you assumed the draft was completely random, then you would expect a hit rate of 20%.
It would be interesting to see this across the league and across areas of the draft. I suspect it needs to be broken down by range of picks - maybe in a group of 20 picks or so. Gut feel, we do okish in the first 20, poor in the next 20 etc.
Supercoach/etc points might be a way to do this numerically. If there was a list somewhere of the draft picks with their scores it would be easy to quickly do the entire league.
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Just watched this year’s draftee intro video with Forster-Knight on the member only video section of the website.
Two things stood out.
He continually thanks Dodoro and points out things that Dodoro has done. Almost nervously, as if his job depends on it.
It made me wonder, would Dodoro, who has been around for decades, be the type to develop and recruiter/team member to help them become a leader and get the top job themself one day? Or would he rather surround himself with people who have no chance of knocking him off his perch? You’d punt on the latter.
Forster Knight also reeled off the players draft pick numbers and junior footy achievements. It was almost the opposite of Scott talking about not knowing or judging players on their draft pick and just letting them train and show what they’ve got. There’s a great example of top level staff not aligned on messaging and direction.
That is a long bow to draw. What else would you like RFK to say in providing background on the player? This is player x, he will show you what he has got, this is player y he will show what his got. Just a waste of time then
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