So, now might be a good time to review what the future looks like for the list.
We have had 2 pre-season, and 1 real game, to give us a peek at where we are right now.
We’ve seen some changes to the way we play under the new coaching group, seemingly a step forward and promising for the future.
We’ve seen BZT at senior level, but we have seen precious little else in the way of young players to whom we can look for real improvement.
We have a good core of players in the 23 to 27 age group, without having any real stars of the competition (no players in HS top 50).
I don’t see any realistic likelihood that we will be anything better than middle of the road for the next couple of years, and beyond that we are going to need an unusually high success rate in the development of our young VFL players to become a better than average team anytime soon. Players like Mozzie, Cahill, McQuillan are all long shots at the moment. We need a couple of them to become very good.
Most concerning for me, is we have a group of KP players who are either coming to the end (Hooker, Hurley, McKernan) or who have a big question mark against whether they have a future with us (Daniher!! Stewart).
We have BZT, Jones, McBride, Gown as possible KP players, and Draper, Bryan and Crauford as possible ruckmen.
Given every last one of our untried young players was drafted at 30+, it would be optimistic to expect that there will be a high strike rate of finding anything better than average to good players out of the group.
We aren’t at rebuild stage, but we need some serious success at the draft in the next couple of years. Trading some of our established good players might become a necessary evil.
If, hypothetically speaking, not another game was played for the season I’d say Begley, Mutch would be first to go. Tbell if they felt Draper was ready to be the back up to Phillips or even better supersede him. Would be difficult given he hasn’t played at AFL level yet though.
Lav I’m a fan of and still believe, but given his time in the system vs output, I concede he’d be in strife.
You’d like to see Gown given an actual crack at it but he’d be in discussions depending on the clubs thoughts on his attitude. I’d like to see him retained.
Then you’ve got the guys who may request trades. We know a couple who are a chance of doing this.
Still. Hopefully they do get back on the park and there is a bit more to go on to make these calls.
The midfield is both young and talented all who will be in the prime years together, we just need to provide them a ruckman who can win tapouts and compete around the ground. The development of Draper is key imo to having a midfield that can compete with the best.
Playing the mids in their best positions regardless or seniority and sorting out consistency with ball movement and pressure on opposition are areas that we appear to be focusing on; these lessons need to stick if we are going anywhere as a team.
Aside from Draper, the development of our other young talls will be key to sustained success. McBride and BZT both show promise as replacements for Hurley and Hooker and we have had a pretty good success rate with KPD in the past.
Up forward it’s less clear where the future is: Daniher can’t be counted on in the short term or the long term, neither can Fantasia - both of these guys were threatening to be the best players in their position before injuries set in - which is a huge loss.
Considering how difficult it is to find elite KPFs, it makes sense that we are building a forward line around smalls and mediums with serviceable talls playing structural roles than it is to sell the farm to bring in a star KPF. And we may still get lucky with Joe, or through FA, the draft, or NGA and Jones does have some elite traits which could blossom into something special.
For me the biggest thing holding us back is the lack of a winning mentality, too many are happy to coast just doing enough to scrape by. To be a genuine premiership team you need to have a killer instinct and we haven’t had that for quite some time.
I’m not a fan of the reduced list size as a money saving move.
If you lose say 9 players from current lists, it will be the cheapest 9 (rookies, last guys picked).
I would prefer a salary cut across the board. Say cut the salary cap 10%, then cut all existing contracts 10%. (Not sure about the legality of cutting existing contracts.) Cut 15% or 20%. No harm done. The players just adjust to new market conditions.
As I said in another thread, clubs going broke should not be an issue. The loss of revenue, no matter how huge, is a one off. When normality resumes, the AFL as a whole resumes becoming a money making machine. All that is required is a lender to finance the one off loss of cashflow and the AFL pays off the loan over however many years it takes. No-one has to go out of business.
While it could prompt a timely review of costs, it should not be as major as people are making it sound at the moment.
It is a fair enough criticism that I don’t have knowledge of all the figures etc, but in the broad, that is how it looks to me.
I agree, I don’t think list sizes will change. They get too small, the possibility of forfeits due to injuries becomes a possibility, and just adds to financial pressures.
They could change pay-structures, and have state league players on a minimal retainer plus match fee basis. You’d then have X number of full-time players, and Y number of part-time players. It’d maintain the list-size, but save money on TPP’s.
But I think you are right; there’ll be some negotiation where TPP’s and subsequently players salaries are reduced by X%.
Which clubs will go bust ?
Hawthorn. Massive commitment to a $ 150M project.
Norf. Not enough tins to go around.
GCS. Not enough members Rugby state.
Brisbane. Most Fitzroy members are dead now or cannot even remember them.
Carlton. If mumma Pratt refuses to prop it up.
Which ones will the AFL save ? Free kick Hawthorn.
I don’t think any will. The TV rights are currently dependent upon 9 games in 21 weeks of the year (and 6 in 3 weeks). Lose a team, they start to lose TV money - currently estimated at $418 million per year.
There are other assets the AFL would be willing to expend before any teams get cut.
I tend to agree. Buuuut, what if they shorten the quarters, let two teams go under, and every team plays 25 games in the 23 weeks instead of 22 because they’re less tired or whatever the justification is? Would be 200 regular season games instead of 198. Then the AFL can start justifying games every day of the week to fit everything in. Replace a low rating Sunday afternoon with a Wednesday night prime time.