Being we haven’t won a final since I was in my 20’s I’d be ■■■■■■■ thrilled to sing the theme song post any finals win.
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Considering we wouldn’t be expected to then play them at the earliest until a prelim in which anything could happen it’s far from just making up numbers. That’d still be a 3rd final we’d progressed to & very worthwhile.
I have no worries about us beating any of the expected 5-8 teams, and of the expected top 4 we would have beaten already this year GWS, WC and also ran Pies to last quarter and only injuries tipped that game in their favour.
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Did you factor in a loss for us?
If Blitz thinks we can win the next 4 then we are also capable of winning the whole thing.
Winning 12 from the last 14 is fancifull stuff.
The pragmatist in me has us only winning the next two by small margins.
We have to win all 4 games.
Hawks and Port vulnerable
Norf…just fark off
Swans gone
I can see us finishing 2 wins off 4th and missing the 8
WTF!
Those of us old enough to remember 1983 are sitting tight. Confident? Not so much…
i think we can beat port on the last round imo.
ok just did the ladder predictor and i cant’ see us making it unfortunately 
Is he just making dumb predictions to fit in with the rest of the idiots like David King to get a job on Fox Footy?
The following table tells the story of the fairness of the draw.
Essendon, Adelaide, Fremantle and the Western Bulldogs got the hardest draw, and all lined up on the ladder at the moment out of the 8.
North, the Dees, Hawthorn and Collingwood got the softest draws (all 3 in the 8 on one undeservedly well in contention).
In an even year this draw is the difference in a lot of cases, probably more than the Carlton loss in our case, certainly combining unexpected losses early on, no wonder this is harder than it should be (ie: possibly needing 14 wins just to make the finals).
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Nah, he wasn’t tipping us to win the flag from here, he’s just saying to make finals we’d have to beat Richmond at the G and Port away etc so we’d have an incredible form line going into finals. Didn’t say he expected us to make finals though.
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LOL, Fark Carlton with second easiest draw.
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This is how I see it - without using the predictor:
We are 11th. We have to pass 3 sides above us:
- Richmond …ummm…next
- West Coast - they have to lose all 4 games and we win 4. Dockers likely win, Power (away) I think at least 50%, Melb (more likely than not), Brisbane (away). Brissy are playing better but lets say at least 50%. So, very unlikely we pass them
- Collingwood - we have to win 3 more games than them. Downers is lots of injuries, but they still play well. Sydney (away) depends which Sydney turn up (lets say 50% chance - at least), Lions (80% chance or more), Power - more likely than not, Dockers (away) more likely than not. So 2, maybe 3 wins …0/3 at the moment…next
- Power - not traveling so awesome right now. Not likely to catch their %, so we have to win 3 games more than them. First up the showdown - lets say 40% Adelaide have every reason to win that game. Eagles - Power would be underdogs - Eagles play well in Adelaide, Pies - less likely than not, Us - that is in our own hands. So if we win all four, we need them to lose 2 out of their other 3. If we win all bar Richmond, we need Power to lose all three other games. They would win at least one - so unless we beat Richmond, we don’t pass them.
- Giants - doing well. We need to put 2 games into them. FCFC - no the world is not ending next week for GWS, should take care of the Crows at home, at least 70% chance of beating Sydney, Melbourne away - 50%. So lets say they win at least 3, we don’t pass them, they could win all 4.
- Melbourne - % too far need 2 games into them. Suns, 1 win, Sydney, likely second win, Eagles better turn up in Perth, Giants would be favoured to do what is needed to be done. So 2 wins. Could be done, but we would need to win 4. If we win three, need them to drop a game they really should have won. So progress score 4 wins, passed perhaps 2. Win 3 unlikely to have passed any so far.
- Hawthorn - % too far need 2 games into them. This week, game over for us if we don’t turn up, but we are in the box seat to do what needs to be done. Cats - huge contest. Lets say 50%. Saints - likely win, Sydney - if Sydney are playing for finals 50%, otherwise easy win. So, if we lose to Richmond, we need Hawthorn to lose 2 out of their 3 last games which is unlikely. Progress score: win 4 passed 3 and in the 8. win 3, unlikely to have passed any.
- Geelong - % too far need 2 games into them. Likely to drop one against Richmond, Hawks 50%, They should take care of Dockers and Suns at KP. So, even if we win 4, less likely to pass them, very unlikely on 3 wins.
- Sydney - either 2 games into them or they need to lose badly & us win big. Collingwood - unlikely - if they turn up it could make it a 50% given the Pies injuries, Melbourne should beat them, GWS could beat them up big time, and if they make it that far they have a chance against Hawthorn, but more likely the crap has been kicked out of them by then. So lets say 1 win. If we win 3 we are likely to pass them, certain if we win 4.
- North - either 1 game into them or big losses for them and wins for us. Lions (away) I’ll call this 50% - Brissy could turn up and North would then find it hard to beat them, Dogs - win, Crows (away) 50%, Saints 75%. So I think at least 2 wins, perhaps 3. We are not going to catch their %. If we win 3, 50% we pass them, we are likely to pass them if we win 4.
- Others - don’t matter
In summary: Win 3, pass 1 to 2, finish 9th or 10th. Win 4 pass 5 and finish 6th.
Each game is an elimination final for us.
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Correct, it’s basically been an elimination final each game since we lost to the Pies, it just wasn’t as clear then. Bummer.
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Yeah, I put in a loss to Richmond, purely to see how likely 13 wins and finals is.
Talking Footy going over the top 8 chances. Have Essendon just missing out on percentage.
With Melbourne winning 2/4, North 3/4, Essendon 3/4 and Port winning only 1 more game against Adelaide.
We need Lions, Doggies or Saints to pull an upset on the Kangas here.
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Big Showdown for us.
GO CROWS!
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Geez norths draw was easy