To be fair, wet weather is the greatest equaliser. That helped Freo a bit against Port.
Luckily we’ll have a quick, dry deck this week!
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Wet weather + 2 game ending injuries to Ryder & Gray early on. And some further injuries in the game also to Bonner.
I just read that the Freo back up ruck Darcy to Sandi also hurt himself late in game so Belly should have a clear advantage over a part timer or very inexperieced ruck.
| W | L | D | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Richmond | 17 | 5 | 0 | 138.2% |
| 2. | West Coast | 16 | 6 | 0 | 124.0% |
| 3. | Sydney | 16 | 6 | 0 | 123.8% |
| 4. | Essendon | 14 | 8 | 0 | 110.8% |
| 5. | Geelong | 13 | 9 | 0 | 119.0% |
| 6. | Collingwood | 13 | 9 | 0 | 109.7% |
| 7. | Port Adelaide | 13 | 9 | 0 | 108.1% |
| 8. | GWS | 12 | 9 | 1 | 110.3% |
| 9. | Melbourne | 12 | 10 | 0 | 117.4% |
| 10. | North Melbourne | 12 | 10 | 0 | 110.7% |
| 11. | Hawthorn | 12 | 10 | 0 | 109.7% |
| 12. | Adelaide | 12 | 10 | 0 | 102.6% |
| 13. | Fremantle | 10 | 12 | 0 | 86.9% |
| 14. | Brisbane Lions | 8 | 14 | 0 | 95.0% |
| 15. | Western Bulldogs | 8 | 14 | 0 | 77.6% |
| 16. | St Kilda | 4 | 17 | 1 | 72.6% |
| 17. | Gold Coast | 4 | 18 | 0 | 63.6% |
| 18. | Carlton | 1 | 21 | 0 | 61.7% |
QF1: Richmond v ESSENDON
QF2: WEST COAST v Sydney
EF1: GEELONG v GWS
EF2: COLLINGWOOD v Port Adelaide
SF1: RICHMOND v Geelong
SF2: SYDNEY v Collingwood
PF1: ESSENDON v Sydney
PF2: WEST COAST v Richmond
GF: ESSENDON v West Coast
Other than us winning every single remaining game, I have been reasonably conservative (read: plausibly semi-realistic) in arriving at this outcome.
Let’s hope my tipping improves to 100% for the rest of the season (unfortunately I am near bottom of the Blitz tipping ladder at the moment).
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By my calculations, if they are anywhere near right, our wins and percentage from last year may have only put us at 11th or 12th this year, and last year was with an easier draw than this year.
There is a fair chance we could actually improve on last year, with a tougher draw and still miss the 8.
So whether we have made progress this year may well be a matter of perspective.
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Talking Footy - big turnaround. They’ve gone from “only 10 teams can make finals” to “the net is wider - Top 12 can all make it”
Get in, Essendon!!!
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Carey also mentioned with the way the lower teams are going, the wins against potential finalists may mean that someone could scrap into the 8 with 12 wins.
That is extremely unlikely in my opinion. I think for that to have any chance, bottom 6 teams are going to need to win 6 or 7 more games against teams from the top 12.
I can’t have us making it.
I’d expect both Hawks and Syd start favs against us, and rightly so.
And quite frankly, if we can’t roll Hawthorn, no way in hell do we deserve to be there.
That just won’t happen Lusty.
You can do the Predictor with a few upsets, but it always comes up with 13 wins.
And I can certainly see a possibility where we, or the Crows somehow finish on 13, and still miss out !
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That many upsets going on, the predictor thing can’t really be used with any kind of surety.
Who would have had Freo getting over Port and Lions over Hawks this week.
Just got to ensure we keep winning! I am
confident we can beat Port away. Tigers not so much but if it’s do or die who knows.
Exciting end to the season for many teams.
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I had a go and we’re clearly still a chance if we can win the next 3, but then we’d still need to beat at least one (and possibly both) of Richmond and Port. We’d have to find some solid improvement over the next month to do that.
Obviously, the goal should be finals, but if we missed out on the 8 despite playing decent football in the last 5 matches, and watched Parish Francis, Laverde, Stewart and maybe one of Clarke/Ridley/Mutch all play seniors and put together some solid games that could be the foundation for next year, I reckon I’d be pretty happy.
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Cue AFL “Roof Open Round”
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Our greatest ally, and most capable of defeating those sides above us, is Adelaide.
As such, I will be hoping they beat Brisbane next round, to keep them motivated and very much in the hunt for Finals.
They play Melb, North & GWS in the run home, and wins against all those sides will benefit us.
They even play Port, and if they are good enough to win the Showdown, I believe there is still a chance that we could go into the last round against Port with both of us on 12 wins.
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We did it before.
They were good enough to beat Cats.
Who replaces Ryder?
Langford. Or was it Laverde?
Either way, Fark Carlton. And Port.
Any which way you paint it Essendon just miss out. Would be great to win every game BUT it’s inevitable they will drop at least 1. Going through multiple scenarios on the predictor, it’s just not going to happen
http://m.afl.com.au/ladder/ladder-predictor#/round/23
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Yeah, I get the same. Every realistic calculation I try, we just miss out. To have any chance, I reckon we need to win all our games, and with some key injuries, I doubt that’s possible. But, as our skipper said on the weekend, one week at a time. Hopefully we get a miracle. 
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It’s plausible that Port have a terrible run from here and round 23 becomes a sudden death battle for a spot in the 8. The team that wins plays finals. Would be entertaining.
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