C’mon now, … at least offer something with OOMPH!!
Francis does not have to break out. He is already #1 in the AFL rated for age ( average of 5 games in 2018 ) What he has to do is back it up at the same level over a longer block of games .
…according to Champion Data, which in the real world means nothing. In the real world he’s still a kid finding his way into the AFL. A kid with oodles of talent, but an undeveloped kid all the same
Yeah nah, I disagree. I think he’s essentially got to improve to keep producing at the same level. The opposition will start putting more into him pretty quickly now to try and exploit his weaknesses.
If he’s come back fitter then that’s probably the biggest hurdle already cleared for him though.
Does he need to improve ? Of course. There is not one player in the AFL who does not want to/need to improve, whether its to get a spot, cement a spot, retain a spot, or get a contract extension.
So its all to do with how he is expected to perform to “break out”. Does he need to be equivalent to Rance, to be considered a breakout? Does he need to beat Buddy? No one expects that for a player who is 21. but can they “break out” at that age ? Yes.
The notion of Francis being equivalent to Rance is a classic example of setting the bar too low.
Francis should have surpassed that by Round 6 ( or whenever we play Richmond)
I’d hope Franga has loftier targets to aim for.
Is Guelfi ( debut round 4 and played 15 games in 2018. ) considered a breakout? I think so, but many would not.
But to be seen as a “breakout” does a player need to be deemed to have massive upside ? Or get Brownlow votes in a stint of games?
Its a common opinion that Francis has huge upside, while Guelfi does not appear to have based on what we have seen so far. So does that color ones thinking about what constitutes a “breakout”
To me a breakout means a young player holds his place in the AFL side for a significant block of games, especially when the player he replaced is available but the young player keeps him out of the side ( which applies to Francis and possibly Guelfi ) although Guelfi plays so many roles even in the one game, its hard to define !
My definition of a breakout, is when a player steps up his contribution significantly, whether that step up was expected or not.
Rightly or wrongly I don’t think a 1st year player can have a breakout year. They’re just setting a starting point. So I don’t consider Guelfi’s season a breakout.
Zerrett’s first season was better than Guelfi’s, but I don’t consider that a breakout either. Zerrett’s 3rd season was a breakout though. I’m hoping McGrath can do something similar, although Zerrett’s 3rd season is a very high bar.
I reckon if a guy like Langford can step up to say avg 20 disposals and 1 goal a game or 22 disposals and 0.5 goals a game (assuming that under either scenario his field kicking is as good or better than this year), then that will be a breakout for him. As much as I liked him this year, I don’t think he quite stepped enough to consider it a breakout.
Parish is another candidate.
Of course Francis is a the big one that I’m sure most on here are hoping for. If he can step up his output by 10 or 15% on those last few games and do it over the course of a full season, then look out!
Fantasia is actually another one imo. I know he’s already a gun. But if he can stay fully fit for an entire season, I think by the end of the season he’ll be a walkup start for AA and he’ll just about be the most dangerous player in the game in the forward half of the ground (excluding KPP’s). He could easily up his midfield time and still up his goal tally to 50 if he plays all season.
There are loads of contenders for us who look ready to step up. I’m sure there are others I’ve missed, but I’ll really be hoping for these guys:
McGrath
Langford
Parish
Francis
Fantasia
Edit: Gee looking through the list there are plenty of other candidates:
Redman
Ridley
Mckenna - I reckon he’s got a couple more gears yet that we haven’t seen.
Laverde - I’m happy to say I’m not a fan and I don’t expect him to make it, but I’d love him to have an injury free run and prove me wrong.
Begley - I reckon 2020 is more likely to be his year, but if he’s got himself really fit, he might surprise earlier.
Long - I’m not expecting him to make it, but if anyone on the list needs a breakout year, it’s him
What about JoeDan?
Based on the Port game Francis does not need to improve (would be great if he did though). It is all about consistency. If he plays consistently like he did in the Port game, he is in the top handful of defenders in the league. What did he in that game was not just great for a 10 game player, it would be considered a great game by any defenders standards.
Interesting ideas Aboods. If you say players cannot have a breakout in their first year then read no further.
People talk about a “Breakout Game” and a “Breakout Season”
An interesting case was that kid from Sydney Ben Ronke, had a “Breakout Game” but arguably did not have a “Breakout Season”, went goalless in half the games he played and kicked half his total goals in 2 out of 18 matches. Contrast that with Jaidyn Stephensons round 5 “Breakout Game” and a “Breakout Season”
This is where a breakout season implies consistency and in the case of a small forward like Ronke who kicked a bag in 2 games, the ability to play well when attracting a lockdown defender.
Breakout year would get him to #1 in the AFL for all ages.
He doesn’t have to do that this year, but it’d be neato.
Was going to give this post a like, then I go to “neato”
Full tilt Richie Cunningham
I think Champion Data ranks neato as a clanger.
I don’t think I have ever been as excited about a young Essendon player than Aaron Francis.
What’s exciting is that we have a number of players to be genuinely excited about what they could become. Francis, McGrath, Fantasia, Parish and Langford.
And what Zerrett and Daniher achieve by the end of their careers.
Joe Daniher for me.
- As a 200cm freak and 2. Because he is a Daniher.
I have this Joe Daniher / Orazio Fantasia combination that I just really really want to see fully fit.
I think it could be one of the most beautiful forward combinations to ever grace the footy field.
You’re spot on. If they are playing at 100% fitness week in and out, watch out.