Trade talk - from October 2024

A Nik Cox Regression model?

Why would we do that?
If there’s a bid between 10 and 18/20 it’d just eat that newly acquired pick.

Trade has to be done either right as the pick we want is due for selection, or after Kako is matched.

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Denver Grainger-Barass gone from Hawthorn.

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I like it. We should write a paper, put all of the variables in “draft pick”, “selected to Essendon”, “height”, “skinniness”, “games played in first 4 years”, and it should tell us how long Nik Cox will survive in the league…or something

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Seems like not even his home state team wanted him as a free hit.

Gee that’s shaping up as a pretty rubbish draft (for mostly obvious reasons I guess)

Tigers won’t want more picks in this draft, they’ll trade for futures. I think Geelong is a good chance to trade back in if they like the players still available at 28/31.

28 and 31 for a clubs future pick is our best bet, then trade those futures back in if we like someone.

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We should do if it works out going into the 2025 draft with 3 first round picks will be great

If Kako isn’t bid at 18 and we have 28+ 31 or 28 + F2 maybe a club gets interested in a swap especially if player they wanted gone.

need to remember took 2 second rounders to get pick 30 in Harrison Jones draft. so may not be able to move up that far.

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With Goldy, Laverde and possibly Shiel looking at their finals years in 2025 has there ever been a squad with as fewer players over 30 years of age?

2026 could be Merrett only. That’s a super young list.

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Not sure Gold Coast had any on their inaugural list - Obviously a different situation though

I’m sure we’ve had years with only 1 (?)

Fisher McAsey and Denver Grainger-Barras.
The epitome of pick 6

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Good call! You are spot on (I had to check for my own satisfaction! haha)

Josh Fraser was 29 and Nathan Bock 28 being the 2 oldest on their list in season 1 2011.

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yep 2010

But we don’t have any youth in the team.

Krueger has very dicey shoulders and misses heaps of games. My Collingwood mates weren’t too stressed to see him go.

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I guess it depends what you regard as youth?

I’m an old man so the Durham’s and Caldwell’s being 23 are youngsters! Perkins, Cox, Menzie, Tstatas, Hayes, Roberts, Hobbs, Kako, Reid, Jones and many more being even younger I think our youth is looking pretty good. They just need to take the next step in 2025.

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Also been on a list for 6 years for a grand total of 11 goals.
Not sure I’d call him a “real” anything at this point.

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Having 3rd round picks with points value next year will pay off well. Brisbane and GC have afew kids they’ll need points for, we could move up into decent picks.

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Depends where you draw the line at youth.
say 24 and under
24 Duursma, Caldwell, Martin, Jones
23 El-Hawli, Durham, Bryan, Cox, Reid, Perkins
22 Menzie
21 Hobbs, Davey, Davey,
20 Tsatas, Hayes, Lual
19 Caddy, Roberts, Vissentini

could make a good argument for Bryan, Reid, El-Hawli, Cox, Jones, Hobbs, Tsatas all being best 23 and potential where youth improvement may come from.

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