And there is the difference between Essendon and Hawthorn right there. We dwell on our first round picks for years hoping they turn good. The Hawks are ruthless.
2 Likes
We just delisted a first round pick VFL key defender (Weideman 
)
1 Like
Yep
Zac Reid on thin ice another injury riddled year and he’s gonski in 2025
Not just Reid, all three of those picks should be on thin ice.
8 Likes
Agree we need to make quicker list decisions if they show nothing with in the first 3 years the club move them on we cant hang onto players for years hoping they come good
1 Like
Yeah I agree, but DGB is all kinds of crap
1 Like
We gave Weid and Setterfield chances.
swans gave Francis a chance.
and how has that worked out for them?
1 Like
Not a blow at all mate
As long as we are not involved i fully support it
What is the knock on Grainger-Barras? He had quite a good wrap from all mock drafts at the time. He must have just not developed any further
With a name like Denver Grainger-Barras, he’ll get picked up by Melbourne, surely.
6 Likes
Not sure why you thought this was targeted at you, I thought you were pretty spot on with your Stringer views fwiw!
1 Like
From what I’ve heard, think Francis.
Just doesn’t have a tank. Gets tired easily and makes silly mistakes.
2 Likes
The big issue/s that just cant be solved for him is he is terrible one on one, in contested situations and he lacks competitiveness.
He also lacks upside to cancel those issues out.
1 Like
Ha, nah didnt think it was shot at me, i just didnt think anyone would be losing sleep that no longer have Weid on the list to whine about. Bloody Nora i wish him well but thank goodness for that! 42 precious spots we have, time we started, sorry they started seeing them that way.
1 Like
Okay done! Spent way too much time on this, blame it on being a Friday.
So I’ve collated all the draft info from 1986 to 2023 into a big file … and realised that it would be a bloody big piece of analysis to run a regression on it, so have taken a different tack.
Below I’ve shown the average games played by draft year, and the number of games played by draft pick as a percentage of average games played that year. This corrects for the issue of more recent years being misrepresentative of career average games, but does ensure that kids who’ve come in and played a lot of games early are shown (e.g. most recent pick #1s, Harley Reid 20 games in 2024, Aaron Cadman 35 across first 2 seasons, Jason Horne-Francis 65 across his first 3, etc).
Firstly - drafting up to the mid-90s was a real crapshoot. So many alternate pathways into the VFL / AFL, compromised drafts when WCE, Fremantle, Adelaide, Port Adelaide etc came in, general lack of science with drafting. Really took until 1999 before the ‘science’ of drafting was relatively perfected - first year where the average games of draftees hit 100.
Second, your ‘elite’ kids at picks #1-5 on average play twice as many games as kids taken in the same draft as them. Pick 6 again is an outlier at 125% (i.e. play on average only 25% more games than the average of all draftees in the year they’re taken). Really interesting and suggests that #6 is the point when elite talent falls away or clubs start to get a little tricksy with their drafting decisions.
You’re good for about average up to pick #40, then it becomes a real crapshoot beyond that.
More than 50% of draftees play less than 30 games; 13% 180 or more, but for the top 5 that figure is 36%
18 Likes
GWS already have a large set of tall forwards in Jesse Hogan, Aaron Cadman, Callum Brown, Jake Riccardi, Lachie Keeffe and Max Gruzewski and have been able to just about make that work due to the agility of players like Cadman and Brown. Throw in the ability of Toby Greene to provide a pseudo-tall forward mismatch in marking contests and it’s a super hard forward line to contain. Already known to play four tall forwards, they now look set to double down by bringing another mobile tall(ish) in Jake Stringer into the mix.
While somewhat maligned by Essendon fans for not being great as a number one target, Stringer moves around the ground sufficiently well to push up into stoppages and can make for a tricky mismatch with the right forward pairings. That’s something the Giants will likely be able to provide. Stringer should help the Giants lean more into their flexibility and mismatch focused forward line.
However, there is a real numbers game emerging up forward for the Giants. Not all of those above have the highest profiles or are the greatest players, but there’s a (theoretical) limit to the number of tall forwards you can play. Maybe it’s an indication that we might see more “Stoppage Stringer”, where his efficiency numbers have been stellar at times over the years.
For Essendon, Stringer isn’t quite surplus to needs but his move perhaps simplifies the puzzle solving aspect of Essendon’s gameplan and player fit. Their remaining tall targets now being Kyle Langford, the emerging Nate Caddy, Peter Wright and Harry Jones. Those are useful pieces but perhaps lack a clear identity. After seeing how they finished last year they still need to make them work in a sustainable manner.
The trade reflects Stringer’s age of 30 years old, which means even optimistically he won’t have many years left of value to the Giants. The Dons got some points matching value if Kako goes high in the draft order, and the pick may even be a sneaky late draft flier if the picks above it get consumed by that bid.
Verdict: Fair trade.
7 Likes
It’s interesting, because “modern” drafting is seen as starting when the TAC Cup came in, which in my head was 1995, but Wikipedia says 1992, and which equates to a significant increase in your graph
1 Like