no its not
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And trump still looks like winning? Or are all the undecideds trump leaning and bring him home?
Why is that guy sitting in a shoe?[quote=âwestozziebomber, post:9706, topic:18706, full:trueâ]
no its not
[/quote]
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Iâve never seen someone put a shoe on it !!
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So so far, Trump has actually overall had more people voting for him than last time. Well there you go. Heâs very popular.
Republicans +4 in the House
Senate status quo (maybe -1)
Nobody really expected that either
This is why Biden has won.
Large Liberal suburbs of Atlanta yet to be counted
Postal votes yet to be counted.
Biden claims these 2 states and thatâs 275.
So the Senate and House barely moved and the Presidency is a deadlock. So much for change, huh.
I hope this is the last time anyone ever tells me that âthe other guy is worseâ is an effective election strategy.
If you can only convince 50% of the population, then maybe you need to try something different.
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Iâm waiting to see which way Eden-Monaro falls.
#Bellweather
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I wanted Warren as the candidate. But I donât think a progressive would get up. The country should really be two different countries.
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For the record, you probably donât recall that in 2016 seven of the Electoral College members were âfaithlessâ and voted for someone other than Trump or Clinton.
Three of the faithless electors voted for Colin Powell while John Kasich, Ron Paul, Bernie Sanders, and Faith Spotted Eagle each received one vote.
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Youâd think so.
But itâs intriguing that heâs already off to the courts.
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should be five or six
- cali/oregon/washington/nevada (maybe Arizona now too)
- confederates
- new england (everything north east of and including pennsylvania & maryland)
- rust belt/great lakes
- texas/oklahoma/kansas/new mexico
- jesusland
Georgia is very interesting too, whether Trump wins it or not.
Obama couldnât get near Romney in 2012. Trump comfortably over Clinton in 16.
But itâs relatively tight this time around. Itâs another of those that I just presumed would be an easy Republican win.
Yeah.
Thatâs my thought.
I still think Michigan can be won as well. Simply because a large portion of voting still hasnât been counted. For memory, I recall that at their election earlier this year, there was a greater split of postal votes that were dems than repubs.
Thatâs more than enough to reach 270.
Interesting to see Trump getting closer and closer in Nevada though.
It was more important for the Dems to win the Senate tbh
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What an amazing day in a truly unique US Presidential election.
As things stand, Trump has won both Florida and Ohio (and Texas).
As I have posted previously:
- The candidate who has won Florida in the last 13 out of 14 elections has won the Presidency. The outlier was G.Bush Snr in 1992 when Ross Perot ran as a spoiler conservative candidate and siphoned about 0% of the right wing vote away from him.
- The candidate who has won both Florida and Ohio in the 26 out of 27 elections has won the Presidency. The outlier was JFK in 1960. Itâs fair to say Biden is no JFK.
Yet, Biden is not without a chance to make statistical history if we look at the key remaining states:
- Biden leads Arizona (11 EV) by ~ 130K votes with 82% counted. Election day votes are now being counted there and they are running ~ 65% Trumpâs way. If that continues it will really be line ball.
- Trump leads Georgia (16 EV) by ~ 118K votes with 91% now counted. Biden has closed the gap as the suburbs of Atlanta have been counted but there really isnât much left to count. Again, it will end up line ball. Edit: Trumpâs lead now 102K with 92% counted (all key Biden counties now 80% + counted).
- Trump leads North Carolina (15EV) by ~ 77K votes with 95% counted. The main cities are all over 95% counted so it is unlikely Biden will close the gap but it will still be close.
- Trump leads Pennsylvania (20 EV) by ~ 673K vote with 74% counted. This lead has been constant through the afternoon. Based on key Democrat city counties, hereâs what Biden might look to gain if the current vote trend continues: Philly (+190K), Delaware (+50K), Montgomery (+50K), Allegheny (+40K). Thatâs only 330K votes. Ignoring the few, much smaller Republican counties who still have some votes to come in, this means he looks like getting only ~ 1/2 of what he needs to win. He has to win the remaining postal/absentee votes by double the rate to actually draw level. Yet he already leads Philly % voting 73-25, Delaware 59-39, Montgomery 58-40, Allegheny 54-44. I donât think Biden can close the gap based on these numbers unless something truly remarkable happens.
- Trump leads Michigan by ~ 300K votes with 71% counted. He has held that size lead throughout the afternoon. Based on current trends here the gains Biden looks likely to make in the major Democrat counties that arenât at least 80% counted: Detroit (+90K), Washtenaw (15K), Ingham (+6K), Antrim (+8K). Thatâs only ~ 119K boost to Bidenâs vote with a number of rural Trump counties still at 60% - 70% counted. Like in Pennyslvania, Biden needs these remaining votes to flow from these counties at more than twice the rate he has been winning them so far which is a big ask. Again, I canât see Biden closing the gap unless something truly remarkable happens.
- Trump leads Wisconsin by ~ 118K with 82% counted. Biden has edged gradually closer throughout the afternoon. Absentee ballots will not be counted until tomorrow. Again, looking at the main Democrat counties that arenât 80% counted, Biden would make the following gains based on current voting trends: Milwaukee (+70K), thatâs it. the rest are already at 98% counted typically. And Trump has up in Kenosha by ~ 12K with only 69% counted. Even if the Kenosha absentee votes broke Bidenâs way that wouldnât give him more than ~ 10K. He looks like falling short unless, of course, the voting trend is much stronger in the remaining votes than the votes cast so far and Milwaukee is already running 59-38 Bidenâs way in $ terms.
Overall, it looks like Trump is in the box seat but Biden still has a chance but needs remaining votes to break 80%-90% his way everywhere to be a chance. Thatâs a tall order.
Currently, Biden leads Trump 227 EVs to 223EVs.
I personally think the lead wonât change in any seat, the margins simply look too great. This means:
- Biden will retain Nevada (6 EV) and pick up Arizona (11 EV).
- Trump will retain Georgia just (16 EVs), North Carolina (15 EVs), Pennsylvania (20 EVs), Michigan (16 EVs), Wisconsin (10 EVs).
This outcome would leave Biden with 244 EVs and Trump with 300 EVs. I think this is the most likely outcome although I wouldnât be surprised if Biden nabbed Georgia which would take Biden to 260 EVs and leave Trump with 284 EVs.
This is why Biden is well and truly still in the race because, if he did nab Georgia with Arizona, then he only needs grab one of Pennsylvania or Michigan to win.
Trump is in front but Biden is closing.
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One thing is for certainâŚ
Polling nowadays means nothingâŚ
People just wonât tell the truth during a poll. Especially if there is a bit of negative lustre behind stating you are voting for one of the candidates.
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Fox says the majority 1.4 million PA votes comes from Trump supporting counties and he currently leads by nearly 700k