The interim Syrian regime is paying a high price. Economic concessions to US, open sky for Israel to attack Tehran, the Golan Heights recognised by the US as part of * Syria *; no assistance to defend itself from Israel waging war in Syria, civilian casualties ignored by the media.
CORRECTION * For Syria, substitute Israel. The US is the only UN member to do so.
Meanwhile, the underfunded UN continues to deliver humanitarian aid across Syria.
Conjecture last year on certain X osint accounts was that the rapid fall of the Bashir regime was (directly and indirectly) very much âhelpedâ along by Israel and the current interim Syrian regime (the then rebels) was conducive to (part of) these efforts. There was also conjecture around future quid pro quos down the track.
Israel is currently dominating everything at the tactical level, but it has no strategic endgame that is realistic. They have locked themselves into a forever war with no clear way to get out and abandon the mess like the US did.
Gaza. I canât see them depopulating the entire strip, so in the absence of that there is no way to end that conflict.
Lebanon. They have demolished the threat to the border, but have put the Lebanese government under more pressure. This is likely to cause the government to faceplant and create fertile ground for new militias.
Syria. Again, Israel has made life for then new government difficult by attacking Syrian military sites and blocking government control of areas used to smuggle Iranian weapons.
Iran. Some form of regime change seems to be desired, but how to actually make something positive come from mass airstrikes is a pure fantasyland thought bubble.
All 4 of these conflicts will result in military action going forward, with no obvious way to end any of them in a stable way that doesnât result in a threat re-emerging shortly after withdrawal.
Is Iraq really worse? The destruction of the Baathists drew a lot of blood but Iraq seems more democratic and less prone to massacres than it was.
The best we might say for the Afghans was a few years of sunlight then back into the darkness, again at great loss of life- a darkness which many seem to prefer anyway.
I guess the big difference is that the US didnât have all their neighbours openly wanting to see the destruction of them.
There will never be peace unless Israel is wiped off the map so I guess the best they can do is just fight to try and hold on to things as long as possible.
Unfortunately itâs something that will never my sorted in my time if ever
I participated in some Australian trade and economic seminars with Iraq officials. The Iraqi women , dressed western style, were impressive. Some of the men were arrogant pigs.
" No President in my lifetime has been in a position like yours. Not since Truman in 1945. I donât reach out to persuade you. Only to encourage you."
I get you, more pointing out that the way Israel is approaching these clashes is to get permanently militarily locked in. Thereâs been alternative paths here for de-escalation and support of peaceful local governance, but each has been violently disregarded.
I both appreciate Israelâs strategic dilemmas and think theyâve played their hand with an extraordinary amount of self-defeating ruthless clumsiness.