As Mertz noted, a manufactured escalation . The Trump transactional approach , doing the sums that there are profits to be made in a corrupt undemocratic Russia which has full control of the media.
Ending with the Zelensky ambush, ordered to leave the White House, preventing the signing of a minerals deal calculated to be worth less than access to the Russian market, an excuse to lift sanctions, luring the Europeans to lift theirs.
The Europeans would be alert to the game plan from the day JD put them on the backfoot with his 14 February Munich speech
The key dates:
11 February
- Witkoff 3.5 hour meeting with Putin, only interpreters present, no official record, Witkoff gives oral report to Trump. Witkoff describes his meeting as a trust building assignment from Trump
12 February
- Bessent meets with Zelensky in Kyiv on minerals deal
14 February
- JD Vance European trashing speech in Munich
19 February
- Witkoff, Rubio and Waltz meet with Lavrov and co in Saudi. US Embasssy posts a summary of outcomes on its site, attributed to Rubio. Parties present at the meeting pledge to further engagement, including on matters of geopolitical and bilateral economic and investment opportunities ( which would ensue from a successful end to the conflict in Ukraine)
23 February
- US votes with Russia to oppose UNGA resolution amended by Europeans, referring to Russian aggression
24 February
- Macron meets with Trump
25 February
- Starmer meets with Trump
27 February
- US and Russian officials meet in Istanbul on restoring and strenghening the diplomatic relationship.
28 February
- the Zelensky ambush , preventing the signing of the minerals deal
- Zelensky flies directly to London-
1 March
- Zelensky signs off on UK loan document waiting for him on his arrival. Gets to meet the King
- Europeans gather for a Summit in London ( the centre for the application of financial sanctions and the largest holding of frozen Russian assets)