Win = finals
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The more complex answer
FCFC will beat Darebin. Willy will beat Geelong (Brendan Rhodes knows nothing).
That leaves 3 other games in doubt, and mattering:
- Hawks v Saints
- Casey v Port
- Norf v Pies
Possibilities below are in vaguely most likely order. 4th means a home final, 5th means away. I list 3rd and 6th because if 6th win then we (as top winner from the elimination finals) can earn a second chance (as we did in 2021). And the top two probabilities are also excellent chances for the team finishing 3rd to choke…
| Casey/Port | Norf/Pies | Hawks/Saints | Finish | Versus | 3 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port | Norf | Hawks | 4 | FCFC | Hawks | Pies |
| Port | Norf | Saints | 4 | FCFC | Saints | Pies |
| Port | Pies | Hawks | 5 | Hawks | Pies | FCFC |
| Port | Pies | Saints | 5 | Saints | Pies | FCFC |
| Casey | Norf | Hawks | 4 | FCFC | Hawks | Pies |
| Casey | Norf | Saints | 4 | FCFC | Saints | Pies |
| Casey | Pies | Hawks | 4 | FCFC | Saints | Pies |
| Casey | Pies | Saints | 5 | Saints | Port | FCFC |
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With one round left, Port is the only team guaranteed finals. We’re seventh but if we’d kicked one more goal, we would have been the only team guaranteed finals.
An insane season.
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A wheelchair football ‘come and try’ activation will be held at this weekend’s matches at Windy Hill. Spectators attending both matches are invited to participate in the activation and experience what it takes to play wheelchair football.
The Victorian Wheelchair Football League is one of the fastest growing inclusion competitions across the country. Since its inception in 2018 the sport has grown from 35 participants to over 100 in 2023. The game is played on a basketball court with modified rules, including a handball being a kick and an underarm throw being a handball. Five AFL clubs (Hawthorn, St Kilda, Essendon, Collingwood, Richmond) are part of the competition. Click here to follow all the action.
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Brendan Rhodes not yet conceding defeat regarding his “will finish top” Cats.
FINAL WORD: Seem to have fallen off the cliff and now must win to save their season against the form team of the competition. Given they have never lost to the Seagulls, that is achievable.
He also had Port and Willy missing finals 
Big implications for the Hawks-Saints game… sensational timing.
I have the winner of the game finishing third, and the loser missing finals.
I had the Hawks as favourites this weekend, and would still prefer that as it sets up better scenarios for 6th to beat 3rd (plus the Saints have actually beaten us since 2019!)
Asciak doing the right thing by us.
IN: Jaimi Paten, Mikayla Barnes, Roxy Beuzeville, Molly Althouse (21yo, 173cm, Darwin Buffettes/NT Thunder Academy/Glenelg/Spotswood, VFLW debut)
OUT: Tallia Pulcino, Steph Asciak, Freya Taylor, Jade Hutchinson
B: T Delgado (69), J Paten (43), M Barnes (45)
HB: C Pickett (59), A Snow (58)
C: E Nekrep (41), E Greet (52), I Cameron (32)
HF: L Ashcroft (47), M McLeod (31), T Meier (42)
F: M Sandral (39), J Tabb (63)
R: J Borg (64), S Skinner (62), D Carbone (54)
INT: R Beuzeville (50), M Althouse, E Bishop (35), A Ling (29), T Skenderis (34)
EMG: F Taylor (48), J Hutchinson (40), K Tracey (44)
The last (and only other) time we went four rounds with no more than 2 changes we won the premiership.
Make of that what you will.
(2-2-0-0 to end last year, 2-2-1-1 if they play as named tomorrow. Mind you, I’m not sure we have that many options left.)
Boyd confirmed as OUT (Trend in).
But the Saints lose Kershaw to a hamstring (Neaves in).
At Port, The Dud has been dropped (but is on a stacked emergency list of 8 players)
Belatedly…
Stats Leaders (leaders, us, Dogs, maybe a few others).
Apart from goals, the numbers below are averages… but the rankings are sorted by totals.
Disposals
1 - Jess Bates (Pies) 27.6
5 - Tahlia Meyer (Dogs) 18.5
9 - Dominque Carbone (Dogs) 19.3
Goals
1 - Sarah Cameron (Willy) 15
3 - Monique Dematteeeeeeoooooo (Pies) 12
9 - MIA-RAE CLIFFORD (and others) 9
Marks
1 - Maddie Boyd (Hawks) 5.2 ← will not win the season
7 - Sarah Skinner AND Tahlia Meyer (Dogs) 3.3-ish
Tackles
1 - GRACE DICKER 11.5
2 - Jess Bates (Pies) 10 ← 20 behind
9 - Lauren Caruso (Port) 7.6
Kicks
1 - Angelica Gogos (Darebin) 17.2
4 - Tahlia Meyer (Dogs) 12.8
Handballs
1 - Jess Bates (Pies) 11.8
7 - Lauren Caruso (Port) 7.1
Hit-outs
1 - Leah Swain(Casey) 38.8
2 - Jorja Borg (Dogs) 31.2
3 - Kate Dudley (Port) 28.4 ← dropped
Time to break even (wins-wise, not score-wise!)
| Year | For | Against | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 29 | 35 | -6 |
| 2019 | 3 | 47 | -44 |
| 2021 | 10 | 28 | -18 |
| 2022 | 98 | 0 | 98 |
| 2022 | 49 | 2 | 47 |
There’s a rainbow over Napier Street.
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Wind to the northern car park is modest, so the sprinkling of rain may not dry out for a bit.
MadGray is the emergency in the warmup.
Molan with the defenders.
Chaston with the mids.
Ford with the forwards.
As named!