HUGE GAME.
I have us finishing 3rd-4th if we lose both our games to the Hawks. If we don’t do that, we will be in a very good position…
We don’t play Norf or Port again, so we’re probably favourites in all of our other games. Feel free to tell me to SHUT. UP.
(It’s not a double-header. The VFLM play in the classic Friday 12noon Ipswich timeslot.)
Busiest 21 players (I wish there was an AFLW filter, or it showed totals rather than averages).
Trimmed for us, the busiest are Chaston, Prince, Abbey, MFord, Plummer, Melnikas, and Albrecht.
For them all of those listed are VFLW-listed (so they lead by one despite initial appearances).
Our key forwards (Bernardi, Tia, Richo and, if you want to include her, Thompson) are just outside this list.
Hawks have long been a top team, but last beat* us six years ago!
| When | For | Against | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-01 | 21 | 60 | -39 |
| 2018-06 | 14 | 41 | -27 |
| 2019-05 | 20 | 56 | -36 |
| 2021-03 | 55 | 27 | 28 |
| 2021-06 | 29 | 14 | 15 |
| 2022-12 | 31 | 31 | 0 |
| 2022-QF | 60 | 7 | 53 |
| 2023-01 | 27 | 27 | 0 |
| 2023-08 | 32 | 15 | 17 |
| 2023-EF | 31 | 21 | 10 |
| 2024-11 | 39 | 29 | 10 |
| TOTAL | 359 | 328 | 31 |
Ha, my model is predicting ANOTHER draw.
41-41
(Context: that’s the only draw being called for the last 50 games of this season.)
Nek 200 minute: Sandy draws Port.
My model sucks 
Mini not training tonight, but Molan was?
(From photo posted by El Capitan)
Stats Leaders (leaders, us, Hawks, maybe a few others)
Apart from goals, the numbers below are averages… but the rankings are sorted by totals.
Disposals
1 - Ange Gogos (Darebin) 27.3
e6 - Isla Baldwin (Hawks) and EL CHASTON 18.5
e16 - MADDISON FORD 16.7
18 - Stasia Stevenson (Hawks) 16.3
e19 - Tess Cattle (Hawks) 16.3
23 - ABBEY MCDONALD 18.8
24 - BROOKE PLUMMER 15.5
e34 - Rosie Dillon (Hawks) 13.8
Goals
1 - Nyakoat Dojiok (Norf) 12
3 - Mon DEMATTEO (Darebin) 9
e4 - Jess Matin (Hawks) (from 6 games) and TIA DAMAGE (from 5 games) 8
e6 - CHRISTINA BERNARDI 7
e8 - Stasia Stevenson (Hawks) 6
e13 - Gabrielle Collingwood (Hawks) and Olivia Fogarty (Hawks) and Mia Zielinski (Hawks) and JAYDA RICHARDSON 5
Marks – all of the player!
1 - Amy Trindade (FC) 4.8
e4 - EL CHASTON and MADDISON FORD 4.2
e6 - Annabelle Embelton (Hawks) 4.0
e11 - BROOKE PLUMMER and Jess Matin (Hawks) 3.7
e14 - Isla Baldwin (Hawks) 3.5
e21 - Matilda van Berkel (Hawks) 4.0
e23 - Gabrielle Collingwood (Hawks) and Paige Price (Hawks) 3.2
e27 - ABBEY MCDONALD 3.6 and JAYDA RICHARDSON 3.0 and Rosie Dillon (Hawks) 3.0
Tackles
1 - Octavia di Donato (FC) 10.3
8 - Isla Baldwin (Hawks) 7.8
14 - Stasia Stevenson (Hawks) 6.8
31 - EL CHASTON 5.3
e33 - LAYLA PRINCE 5.2
39 - ASHLEA MELNIKAS 7.0 (from 4 games)
Kicks
1 - Ange Gogos (Darebin) 18.2
e6 - BROOKE PLUMMER 11.8
e13 - Matilda van Berkel (Hawks) 11.2
e15 - Isla Baldwin (Hawks) and Tess Cattle (Hawks) 11.0
e21 - EL CHASTON 10.5
34 - MADDISON FORD 9.3
Handballs
1 - Alana Barba (Werribee) 11.0
e6 - Stasia Stevenson (Hawks) 8.5
8 - EL CHASTON 8.0
9 - Isla Baldwin (Hawks) 7.8
11 - MADDISON FORD 7.3
e12 - ABBEY MCDONALD 8.4
e17 - LAYLA PRINCE 6.5
e21 - JAYDA RICHARDSON 6.3
e24 - Rosie Dillon (Hawks) 6.2
e32 - SARAH FORD 8.5 (from 4 games)
e38 - Mikayla Lee (Hawks) 8.3 and MADDISON ALBRECHT 6.6
Hit-outs
1 - Grace Matser (Fark Carlton) 28.7
3 - Paige Price (Hawks) 26.8
6 - LAYLA PRINCE 23.7
… big gap …
26 - Annabelle Embelton (Hawks) 6.3
31 - Maddison Torpey (Hawks) 12.0
33 - JAYDA RICHARDSON 3.3
I don’t think Richo has fully clicked in any game this year, but the below indicates she has a very high base now…
Also, there are three Hawks there to worry about…
I tried running a few LLM models to produce VFLW stats; some returned info on the VFLM, most were way too wordy, some could find the number of behinds scored by individual players but not more useful details likes marks or tackles, but the most important thing I learnt was from Gemini: sFord and MFord are sisters*.
*they’re not.
We’ve gone experience (plus ALBRECHT).
IN: M. Albrecht, S. Molan, I. Porter, D. Ryan
OUT: G. Azzopardi, E. Downie, M. Harrison, S. Orritt (omitted)
They’re reasonable changes… Porter annoyed me much less in her last two games.
Hawks have indeed lost captain McLinden.
IN: P. Gardner, A. Prosser-Shaw
OUT: E. McLinden (ankle), N. Furjanic (omitted)
NEW: Poppy Gardner, 20, 175cm, Frankston; Amelie Prosser-Shaw 18, 175, GWS Giants Academy
FINALLY, game #25 for Drew Ryan (18 with us, 7 with the Hawks).
Our broadly-paired changes since we played the Hawks in round 11 last year:
| OUT | IN | Role | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chloe Prpic | Ava Jordan | utility | plus |
| Ellie Huggard | Brooke Plummer | wing | plus |
| Emily Gallagher | Sam Johnston | fwd/ruck | plus |
| Ruby Mahony | Abbey McDonald | mid | plus |
| Tayla Hart-Aluni | Maddison Albrecht | small fwd | plus |
| Jaimee-Lee Morrow | Layla Prince | ruck | - |
| Sarah Perkins | Jayda Richardson | key fwd | - |
| Bailey Hunt | Lucy Thompson | fwd/mid | minus |
| Danielle Marshall | Isabelle Porter | def | minus |
| Emily Tassiopoulos | Marli Klaumanns-Moller | fwd–>ute | minus |
| Lily Bateman | Sophie McIntosh | key def | minus |
| Olivia Manfre | Maggie O’Connell | fwd | minus |
Hawk changes – not paired, but I’ve sorted some key players to the top of each list.
| OUT | IN |
|---|---|
| E. McLinden (35) | I. Baldwin (12) |
| T. Luke (40) | N. Exon (19) |
| N. von Bertouch (34) | O. Fogarty (30) |
| G. Brisbane (0) | T. Cattle (3) |
| A. Muir (59) | A. Cariss-Brett (4) |
| C. Davidson (33) | A. Prosser-Shaw (21) |
| C. Thorne (32) | A. Torcasio (30) |
| E. Robins (80) | E. Stilve (22) |
| J. Cox (37) | M. Bell (39) |
| M. Zielinski (50) | P. Gardner (28) |
| P. Pavic (63) | P. Price (27) |
| T. Bradley (43) | R. Murdoch (34) |
No pressure, girls and wheels…
| Team | For | Against | Result | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFL | 72 | 90 | L | 80% |
| VFL | 99 | 119 | L | 83% |
| VFLW | ? | ? | ||
| CWFL | ? | ? | ||
| VWFL | ? | ? | ||
| TOTAL | 171 | 209 | 0 - 2 | 81.8% |
(Wheelchairs play Sunday @ 1pm and 2pm)
Windy Hill is not.
Lily has a new crutches buddy (Prpic).
Chaston still with the defenders.
