Sarah Ford, Brooke Plummer, and Jayda Richardson are all set to reach 25 VFLW games.
Ha, my model now says we lose to Willy by a point in this game and then draw Footscray in the final round, resulting in…
| Place | Team | Points | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Norf | 48 | 175% |
| 2 | Hawks | 48 | 153% |
| 3 | Port | 38 | 130% |
| 4 | Willy | 36 | 114% |
| 5 | EFC | 34 | 121% |
| 6 | Magpies | 32 | 114% |
| 7 | Sandy | 30 | 118% |
| 8 | Bulldogs | 30 | 116% |
| 9 | Darebin | 24 | 90% |
| 10 | FCFC | 12 | 80% |
| 11 | Casey | 4 | 50% |
| 12 | Geelong | 0 | 41% |
I think my model is talking â– â– â– â– . I say Sandy will actually finish 8th, and 3rd and 4th will be split between us and the Pies on percentage.
Willy has the worst draw from here, on average playing the 5th best team (including all of the top seven bar themselves and weakest team Sandy) . If they make finals, they’ve earned it.
| Now | Team | Ave | N | H | W | S | E | M | P | B | D | F | C | G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Norf | 7.0 | x | x | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 2 | Hawks | 6.5 | x | x | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 3 | Willy | 5.0 | x | x | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 4 | Sandy | 6.2 | x | x | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 5 | EFC | 6.2 | x | x | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 6 | Magpies | 7.5 | x | x | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 7 | Port | 6.5 | x | x | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 8 | Bulldogs | 6.5 | x | x | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 9 | Darebin | 5.8 | x | x | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 10 | FCFC | 7.3 | x | x | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 11 | Casey | 5.5 | x | x | x | x | x | x | ||||||
| 12 | Geelong | 8.0 | x | x | x | x | x | x |
Geelong has the easiest remaining draw, and might not win a game regardless…
Willy comms are DA BEST IN DA BUSINESS.
Important note from last week is that Sharnie Whiting played forward, kicked three goals in their 17-point win, BOG. Has otherwise spent a lot of time in defence this year.
And imagine us doing this level of detail:
History vs Willy:
| When | For | Against | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-13 | 9 | 37 | -28 |
| 2019-10 | 47 | 8 | 39 |
| 2019-14 | 78 | 1 | 77 |
| 2021-07 | 45 | 15 | 30 |
| 2021-13 | 34 | 15 | 19 |
| 2022-04 | 65 | 13 | 52 |
| 2023-06 | 30 | 21 | 9 |
| 2024-02 | 35 | 35 | 0 |
| 2024-13 | 10 | 28 | -18 |
| TOTAL | 353 | 173 | 180 |
Teams are out but not published. This may not be enough to beat Box Hill, but it will make the game more interesting… they’ll go alright in the ruck!
Hella changes…
IN: E. Harris, O. Manfre, M. Mifsud
OUT: G. Brooker (unavailable), M. Heymanson (illness), A. McDonald (concussion)
NEW: Eva Harris, 19, 179cm, Northern Territory Academy/Southern Districts/Moonee Valley
Harris > Heymanson
Manfre >> Brooker
Mifsud < McDonald
For Willy:
IN: C. Bain
OUT: M. Simpson (omitted)
I think Molly has been in and out this year, so not as good as previous seasons. Graph agrees:
Kayla Peake and Ella Brown feature on our emergency list for the first time?
(Maybe Peake was there early this season?)
Reminder that VFLW concussion protocol is 21 days rather than 12 days. So Abbey should miss next week’s game versus Casey as well.
Three other players are out with concussion this week: Alana Barba (allowing Sutton to come back in), Butler at the Hawks (so back before we play them again), and Lemire at Fark Carlton.
Yes, it’s going to be ■■■■■■■cold and dew-ridden at 10am.
Changes since the previous game vs Willy at the end of last year. I started pairing them off but they’re really a very different batch, much more so than previous weeks.
Much less experience, and much less focused on the spine.
| OUT | IN |
|---|---|
| Danielle Marshall | Sophie McIntosh |
| Christina Bernardi | Eva Harris |
| Ruby Mahony | Megan Mifsud |
| Jaimee-Lee Morrow | Layla Prince |
| Tayla Hart-Aluni | Maddison Albrecht |
| Bailey Hunt | Ava Jordan |
| Emily Tassiopoulos | Brooke Plummer |
| Lily Bateman | Grace Azzopardi |
| Marnie Robinson | Madison Ibrahim |
| Sarah Perkins | Lucy Thompson |
Last time I dug myself a hole re: Crowley being named as first ruck, so I’ll stay mum this time.
Dunno if Willy are extracting the urine with Russel as HBF, Thorneycroft back-pocket, Whiting as ruck-rover, and Mahoney last spot on the bench.
I mean, we’ve “kept” Drew Ryan at CHB, got swapped Melnikas and Plummer from the obvious spots, and hid Chaston deep forward again.
Willy un-changed and changed:
| Now | Was |
|---|---|
| A. Thorneycroft (17) | - |
| E. Eaves (6) | - |
| E. Freeman (33) | - |
| I. Barker (16) | - |
| L. Blue (47) | - |
| M. Williamson (24) | - |
| N. Crowley (40) | - |
| S. Whiting (25) | - |
| Z. Day (13) | - |
| C. Bain (10) | A. Marino (28) |
| G. De Angelis (12) | B. Gray (44) |
| G. Howes (11) | C. O’Bryan (37) |
| I. Khoury (3) | C. Tyrell (11) |
| J. Wrigley (7) | E. Meade (19) |
| K. Leare (1) | E. Straford (18) |
| K. Russell (45) | G. Biedenweg-Webster (32) |
| M. D’Agostino (31) | L. Stepnell (4) |
| M. Smart (26) | M. Edwards (17) |
| R. Mahony (9) | N. Julian (9) |
| T. Brett (2) | R. Randell (41) |
| Z. Guss (29) | S. Bridgewater (12) |
Busiest 21 named. You can see why they’ve named Thorneycroft in the back pocket…
| Team | Player | AF | G | B | K | H | D | M | T | CLR | HO | i50s | R50s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willy | Ash Thorneycroft | 98.3 | 0 | 0 | 15.3 | 3.8 | 19 | 1 | 10.8 | 5.3 | 0 | 3.8 | 1.8 |
| EFC | Eloise Chaston | 81.7 | 0.1 | 0 | 11.2 | 7.4 | 18.7 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 2 | 0 | 2.8 | 1.9 |
| Willy | Emily Eaves | 80.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 12 | 5.8 | 17.8 | 1.4 | 7.5 | 7 | 0.1 | 5 | 1.6 |
| EFC | Layla Prince | 76.1 | 0.1 | 0 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 12 | 2 | 4.5 | 2 | 22.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Willy | Megan Williamson | 70.6 | 0 | 0 | 11.1 | 1.3 | 12.4 | 1.5 | 8 | 4.5 | 0 | 2.9 | 0.9 |
| EFC | Brooke Plummer | 61.8 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 11.4 | 3.8 | 15.1 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 1 | 0.1 | 4 | 0.9 |
| EFC | Maddison Ford | 61.8 | 0 | 0.1 | 9.1 | 7.3 | 16.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0 | 0.4 | 2.9 |
| EFC | Ashlea Melnikas | 60.8 | 0.2 | 0 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 12.3 | 1.3 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Willy | Georgia Howes | 57.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 6.6 | 1.6 | 8.3 | 2.5 | 2 | 2.4 | 15.9 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Willy | Krystal Russell | 56.7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.7 | 4.7 | 0.3 | 4.3 | 2 | 28.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| EFC | Maddison Albrecht | 56 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 6.9 | 6 | 12.9 | 1.4 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0 | 2.9 | 0.3 |
| Willy | India Barker | 55.8 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 10.4 | 2.4 | 12.8 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 0 | 3.1 | 1 |
| EFC | Tia Davidge | 53.6 | 1.4 | 0 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 8.9 | 3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| Willy | Jemima Wrigley | 51.1 | 0 | 0.1 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 12.1 | 1.6 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 5.4 |
| EFC | Jayda Richardson | 50.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 11.6 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 3 | 1.6 | 0.3 |
| Willy | Gabriella De Angelis | 50.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 8.3 | 2.5 | 10.8 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2 | 0 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| EFC | Sarah Ford | 49.3 | 0 | 0 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 13.7 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 0 | 1.7 | 1 |
| EFC | Sophie Molan | 49.2 | 0 | 0 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 12.3 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 0 | 0.7 | 2.8 |
| EFC | Lucy Thompson | 48.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 10.8 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 2.9 | 0.7 |
| Willy | Ruby Mahony | 47.7 | 0 | 0.1 | 5.4 | 4 | 9.4 | 1.3 | 5.4 | 2 | 0 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| EFC | Isabelle Porter | 47.6 | 0 | 0.1 | 7.1 | 4 | 11.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.4 | 1.7 |
Yep! 
This is actually game 56 (one game later than the club noticed Jesse Davies had reached 50, despite Brendon and I separately ANNOUNCING it).
A foggy, 5c this morning in Woodend. 10c in Williamstown.