What a stupid thread.
improving our consistency within games is the key factor for mine. I suspect we will find it harder to produce the sort of high intensity bursts of football we saw this year without ryder going bananas in the middle. Our run on would often involve him setting up multiple goal scoring opportunities straight out of the center square and that will be very very hard to replace.
obviously we also (still) need to fix up our fwd line efficiency. Hopefully the developement of JD and carlisle in their roles will help and encourage more kicking to leading targets inside 50 rather than high bombing.
i think top 4 is achievable but then i have felt that for the last 3 seasons and it has never come to fruition. We are yet to make the leap from being a capable team to a consistently good team.
Fkn sick of being middle of the road. Seriously, if we do not win a final or two next year it’ll be a huge failure. If we dont take a big step next year, il be ropeable
I think we were pretty lucky with injuries last year in comparison to other teams and our previous seasons.
Watson out for 9 weeks, Carlisle/Fletcher missing the final and Bellchambers inneffective when available hurt us, for sure, but other than that we just had a few weeks out here and there from a variety of players. Kommer and Browne wouldn't have been starting 18 (or Kommer only just) so I think we were pretty lucky.
That kind of year doesn't come around for us very often so don't be surprised if we suffer from more injuries in 2015.
i think BJ carried trouble with his groin all year and thus spent much more time forward than we would have liked and stanton certainly did it hard over the second half of the year.
i think you undersell the absence of kommer, browne and hams too as all would have provided handy depth and one may well have figured prominently. You also forget that dempsey didn't get going till half way through the year and heppell was obviously not 100% going into the final (he couldn't tackle).
going into the final i felt that jobe, hepp, BJ, stanton were all carrying issues or at least not in top condition. tbell wasn't fit and carlisle and fletch missed. i don't think that is being lucky with injury
Fkn sick of being middle of the road. Seriously, if we do not win a final or two next year it'll be a huge failure. If we dont take a big step next year, il be ropeable
if we don't it is rebuild time really.
If we don't see significant improvement next year in terms of consistency I'll lose the plot.
consistency, consistency consistency, that is by far our biggest problem. Our best is good enough to match it with anyone and easily top 4 capable. Our worst is very, very, poor. Not sure how much the saga has been a factor, but hopefully it will be gone and we will find out next year.
Inconsistent midfielders are my biggest worry, I don't even need to mention who they are.
I am not at all worried about the fwd line, when we move the ball quickly we score easily. When any-side moves the ball slowly into the fwd line they struggle to score, quick ball movement is the key.
We need to use the ball well and take the game on thru the corridor. To do this you either need to be a great kicking side (hawks) or have legspeed (Port).
Defensively, I think we have the best backline in the league. We are every-chance to make top 4 next year if we can become more consistent both within games and from game to game.
Cooney is a big plus for us if he plays well he has both leg-speed and most importantly is another beautiful kick. Goddard, Hibbard, Dempsey (when firing), Myers and even Hurley are all great attacking kicks. Add Gleeson and Zach Merret as our up and comers and we have the makings of a very good kicking side.
Would be nice if we can draft another walk up start attacking kick in this years draft.
Swans mates unbiased opinion of our chances next year.
Essendon- whether you like it or not a lot hinges on asada, because if bans come you are stuffed- lets presume no bans and once and for all its gone. They have one of the best young players in the comp in heppell, daniher is a future star and carlisle is good obviously. Hooker down back works, so pieces are there but they also have older farts Watson goddard chapman who are still pivotal a fletcher- essendon to me look great when things run their way but I think teams can bully them and if you get on top they can falter they can even be run down. To me this is not a top 4 team at all and you need to take rose coloured glasses off. They need to improve outside run in the midfield group and forward line efficiency. Daniher will be a star but not consistently til about 2017- list build is optimistic. Cooney for stuff all is worth a punt, but wont win you a flag. Can hird coach? We find out now
I agree with all that - its actually a great assessment, except his comments on Daniher. He kicked 28 goals last year and finished the season off strongly culminating with his best game ever in a final when he took on the North backline by himself. He is developing unbelievable well and quickly. We will not have to wait until 2017.
Also, Hird can coach. that is not in question IMO.
I agree with what you are saying about Daniher but the comments were from a guy who supports the Swans, so to him being consistent probably means Daniher kicking >50 goals in a year.
If he does that next year I will be amazed but it's not out of the question and certainly not for 2016 but he has to keep improving.
I reckon 40 is not out of reach, for both he and Carlisle. Both finished off the year really well and that bodes well for 2015.
You can go pretty far without a gun, 60-70 goal forward, but you do need to have 3 or 4 options who spread the load and kick 30-40 each. Daniher, Carlisle can both do that fairly easily off 25+ goal seasons where they both missed games & had to fill in other roles etc, the question for mine is the 3rd, 4th options.
If we beat Melbourne and St Kilda we’ll be top 4
Hawthorn, Sydney, Port and Freo are a level above us. We are in a group of about five teams that could potentially fill a spot in the top four if one of those teams drops off. History suggests that will happen as injuries and form fluctuate. Geelong may drop off, but I've been predicting a fall for years. They've actually grabbed a couple of handy players this off-season. GC will improve and could contend. Collingwood and Richmond are rising. West Coast and Adelaide historically don't go too many seasons without playing finals. It's going to be a log jam. I think if everything goes right for us with regard to ASADA and injuries, we could be a top four side.
Like me Windy Dill, I have been expecting Geelong to fall off for 2 years. They have an amazing ability to hang in the 4, it must be the culture that Bomber set up there. But I am pretty certain the fall will start in 2015, age and equalisation MUST eventually catch up with teams.
A few years ago there were several hugely superior teams at the top, losing only 2 or so games in a year. Last year the top teams lost 5 games or more. Its hard to see Geelong, Hawthorn particularly and even Sydney improving on that., so I am with you on the "log jam" idea.
If Hawthorn get a half-decent run with injury they'll win 19 or 20 IMHO.
They had a fairly poor (not terrible at any point, but consistently 4 or 5 players off their best side) from about round 3 onwards.
So far they've added Frawley and not lost much. Anderson, hartung, Litherland, Whitecross in the wings.
Could easily improve.
Hawthorn, Sydney, Port and Freo are a level above us. We are in a group of about five teams that could potentially fill a spot in the top four if one of those teams drops off. History suggests that will happen as injuries and form fluctuate. Geelong may drop off, but I've been predicting a fall for years. They've actually grabbed a couple of handy players this off-season. GC will improve and could contend. Collingwood and Richmond are rising. West Coast and Adelaide historically don't go too many seasons without playing finals. It's going to be a log jam. I think if everything goes right for us with regard to ASADA and injuries, we could be a top four side.
Collingwood? Rising?
Hawthorn, Sydney, Port and Freo are a level above us. We are in a group of about five teams that could potentially fill a spot in the top four if one of those teams drops off. History suggests that will happen as injuries and form fluctuate. Geelong may drop off, but I've been predicting a fall for years. They've actually grabbed a couple of handy players this off-season. GC will improve and could contend. Collingwood and Richmond are rising. West Coast and Adelaide historically don't go too many seasons without playing finals. It's going to be a log jam. I think if everything goes right for us with regard to ASADA and injuries, we could be a top four side.
Collingwood? Rising?
Rising in the same way Richmond are, they finished #8 this year after #5 the year before, 8 > 5 !!!
I think we were pretty lucky with injuries last year in comparison to other teams and our previous seasons.
Watson out for 9 weeks, Carlisle/Fletcher missing the final and Bellchambers inneffective when available hurt us, for sure, but other than that we just had a few weeks out here and there from a variety of players. Kommer and Browne wouldn't have been starting 18 (or Kommer only just) so I think we were pretty lucky.
That kind of year doesn't come around for us very often so don't be surprised if we suffer from more injuries in 2015.
i think BJ carried trouble with his groin all year and thus spent much more time forward than we would have liked and stanton certainly did it hard over the second half of the year.
i think you undersell the absence of kommer, browne and hams too as all would have provided handy depth and one may well have figured prominently. You also forget that dempsey didn't get going till half way through the year and heppell was obviously not 100% going into the final (he couldn't tackle).
going into the final i felt that jobe, hepp, BJ, stanton were all carrying issues or at least not in top condition. tbell wasn't fit and carlisle and fletch missed. i don't think that is being lucky with injury
Can also throw Gleeson in there who missed around 10 weeks. He was one who could have had a big impact this year.
Watson and Fletcher missed 8 weeks. Ambrose and Winderlich 7 weeks.
Also, is it too early to start saying we also had a pea-heart playing for most of the year?
The Hird factor is the interesting one for me.
Under him we seem more passionate and energised.
Under Bomber we seemed more professional and less emotional.
Hopefully we can bring back that passion and start burying teams like we did in 2013
Can we beat the Demons is all I care about.
I think we were pretty lucky with injuries last year in comparison to other teams and our previous seasons.
Watson out for 9 weeks, Carlisle/Fletcher missing the final and Bellchambers inneffective when available hurt us, for sure, but other than that we just had a few weeks out here and there from a variety of players. Kommer and Browne wouldn't have been starting 18 (or Kommer only just) so I think we were pretty lucky.
That kind of year doesn't come around for us very often so don't be surprised if we suffer from more injuries in 2015.
i think BJ carried trouble with his groin all year and thus spent much more time forward than we would have liked and stanton certainly did it hard over the second half of the year.
i think you undersell the absence of kommer, browne and hams too as all would have provided handy depth and one may well have figured prominently. You also forget that dempsey didn't get going till half way through the year and heppell was obviously not 100% going into the final (he couldn't tackle).
going into the final i felt that jobe, hepp, BJ, stanton were all carrying issues or at least not in top condition. tbell wasn't fit and carlisle and fletch missed. i don't think that is being lucky with injury
Can also throw Gleeson in there who missed around 10 weeks. He was one who could have had a big impact this year.
Watson and Fletcher missed 8 weeks. Ambrose and Winderlich 7 weeks.
Also, is it too early to start saying we also had a pea-heart playing for most of the year?
I agree Stanton and Goddard were hindered, but at least they were out there.
Kommer was best 22 under Hird, I guess we'll never know how important he would have been, though look how many games we got into Zach Merrett, plus Chappy came into the side. I odn't think Kommer would have mad all that much difference, then again if we are talking about improving the side by a few % then it could have helped us get over the line in a couple of matches.
I liked what I saw of Hams in his 1 game until he got crumpled, and like Gleeson he looked capable at AFL level. They are examples of kids who can fill a gap and even have an impact on the game - good depth - but I don't think we really missed them all that much.
Losing our Captain for 9 weeks was huge, and even by itself means that I can't really say we had a 'good year' with injuries, but I think we are going to be disppointed if we make our top 4 aspirations based on expecting everyone to be fit all year.
Basically if our injuries happen to our depth rather than key players, I think that counts as a good year for injuries.
Essendon and Port will take top 4 with Geelong and Freo sliding.
Most blitzers have mentioned it: consistency. I want to see us play 4 full qtrs. Our defence is elite. Time for mids and fwds to reward them.
Bomber stated many times also that at our best we can beat anyone. Players just need self-belief and confidence.
We are in the 6-12 region, depending on how we go with injuries.
Outside run is the issue.
The Hird factor is the interesting one for me.
Under him we seem more passionate and energised.
Under Bomber we seemed more professional and less emotional.
Hopefully we can bring back that passion and start burying teams like we did in 2013
This will be interesting. Bomber seemed a lot more willing to accept that players wouldn't be available and to give them the right amount of time to get ready/fit to play, more so than ever before, though that may have been due to the focus being more on "duty of care to players" than ever before.
Bomber seemed very patient that we would get better, that things needed time to improve, and that we had to pace ourselves throughout the season. He appeared more focussed on winning by playing the right way and in a sustainable fashion, rather than winning this week no matter what and then we'll worry about the short turn around next week.
Not to say that James acted all that differently in 2013, either way he got comparable results. It could also be that the club (through Bomber) was intent on being very vocal about how we were looking after the players best interests, you know, optics and all that.
Bomber has the advantage of not being under too much pressure. It was a 1 year gig and he even said he was able to do things without the pressure of desperately needing to appease board/supporters/media etc. Blooded a few kids and persevered with Carlisle up forward, Hurley back etc.
Hird won't have the same luxury as people will be analysing everything he does and those that had predicted he would never return will be eager to say "I told you so" in some form.
Our backline is probably in the top 3 in the league. Hooker is AA, Hurley and Pig won't be far off next year, Bags refuses to lose a contest, Dempsey should bounce back under Hird and then we've got the old man and some really capable second stringers in Gleeson, Dalgeish and Steinberg. Gwilt gives us some additional coverage as a second / third tall option.
Our midfield is a top 4-6 rotation for mine. Watson, Heppell and Goddard are genuine A+ stars, Cooney, Stanton, Zaharakis and Hocking would get a spot in pretty much every team and then you've got Myers, Merrett x 2, Melksham and Colyer who will rotate through at different times. Add in the occasional stint from Chapman and it's looking really strong. We only really have one or two more years to squeeze out of this group though.
Our forward line is still a mystery. You know what you're going to get from Chapman and Winderlich if they're fit, but then you've got a really inconsistent and young group after that. I'd expect Carlisle and Daniher to take a step forward this year and we'll also get to see whether Ambrose has hit his ceiling. Kommer adds something different, Bellcho and Zerrett will play a fair bit up there but we're lacking consistent options. I'd say we're looking at a 8th-12th forward line and hence we're going to have to build our game on defence and getting behind the ball.
Top four is achievable if we win the games that we should win.