Waaay too much. Pick in the 40s can go back, but pick 26 back values Saad at a pick in the 20s.
Ok, here is a set of trades that I think are (a) simple, (b) reasonable, and most importantly, could have been agreed in principle with the Bulldogs right now (as per Scorchâs claim).
Draft picks below assume Williams, Crouch and JD get Band 1 compensation. Corr gets Band 3.
Trade 1
Bulldogs
In: #7, #8 = 3195 points, an excess of 1181 over a bid #2, or pick #14. Bulldogs no longer need to use later picks to match for JUH.
Out: Dunkley, #15, but #15 would have been subsumed for points (as would #40 and #52).
And right now a #2 bid will wipe their draft hand and take a deficit into 2021 for their first round pick. This trade negates that.
So
Effectively In: #14, #40, #52, no deficit carried forward
Effectively Out: Dunkley
Bulldogs can trade #40 and #52 for future picks if they really donât want to use them.
Essendon
In: Dunkley, #15 will move up when JUH is bid on, but back when Campbell/Reef/Lewis bid on.
Out: #7, #8 (will move our #9 from Carlton up when used to pay for JUH)
Saad for #9.
Raz for #29
Caldwell for our 2021 second.
Get Dunkley and take #9, #15, #29 and #44 to the draft (all picks subject to movement due to bidding).
Only takes 4 clubs, nobody else needs to get involved. Donât get McDonald, but can take Cox or Reid at #9.
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So @WeekendAtBernies this was my long post earlierâŚ
If the dogs do not trade any picks and JUH is bid at 2, taking into consideration the 20% discount then they would lose their picks 12,36 and 48.
They would get pick 68 in change. So if they selected 3 players they would walk out of the draft with JUH, pick 68 and 84.
However⌠with Free agency, their picks will all move back. With pick 12 potentially becoming pick 15 (Joey, Crouch and Williams compensation) and their other picks pushing back further. So essentially if they did nothing and a bid came at 2, then not only would they lose all of their picks with points value in 2020 but they would also receive a 1st round points deficit next year! E.g if they had pick 12 next year, this would push back to 19.
So they need points and picks. Particularly if they want to trade in some players who they have been linked to I.e. Mitch Hannan.
So in conclusion, if we were to trade 6 and 7 (Which could become 7 and 8 after FA) for Dunkley and pick 12 (which becomes 15 after FA), they will be up around 2080 points. This covers exactly a bid at 2 for JUH. Meaning they retain picks 36 and 48 and also donât receive a deficit next year. Whilst also getting pick 15 back this year
EDIT: They would also get pick #15 this year after matching the bid at 2. Thanks @Ants
This is why clubs stock up on future picks when they know they have FS/NGAs. Dogs need to procure points, and trading out a player like Dunkley who is potentially surplus makes sense.
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I think the points stay the same on draft day.
So if JUH gets bid on, our pick 7 on draft day still has the same point value, but I think they get pushed back now after the compensation picks.
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Tom Cutler & Jake Townsend 
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Im not hopeful but if the club truly believes they can make a huge leap ala richmond, dogs, west coast. Then Jack Gunston or Ben Brown i wouldnât be too fussed with on a shorter term (2-3 year) deal. Provided we get Dunkley in.
Really appreciate you clarifying that. The different interpretations changed the scenarios heaps! I tried a source of my own, but that thought I was correct but we couldnât prove it/find confirmation.
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It was impossible to find the info online so i had to email somebody. I think they like these things to be hard to pin down.
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Good reasoning, except #7 and #8 are worth 3195 points on their own, enough that with a bid at #2 they get #15 back.
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This seems like where the confusion may lie
So perhaps Adel, Ess & GWS (x2 maybe) compo picks assuming both get them would potentially push back the picks & associated points. Dogs 12 back to 16 in that case.
But not get affected after the bids on draft day and players taken
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Just on this, assuming Ugle-Hagan was bid on at 2, thatâs when they would match. So 12 would only be pushed to 13 before they spend it. But if that happened theyâd send every pick they have and the 69 they get back would end up being 75+ which hold a zero point value.
They really do need some picks.
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No, with the Crouch , Daniher and cameron compo it becomes 15
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Again, not my understanding, but the AFL doesnât post it anywhereâŚ
If we end up giving the dogs 2 of 6/7/8, there is zero chance they hold onto them to let the JUH bid chew them up. Would make absolutely zero sense for them.
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Zach WIlliams will be a first rounder compo too.
Think Cameron will be a trade.
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Blues fans ringing up trade radio and saying they are getting Treloar and Merrett into the side lol.
Maybe. Geelong have said they wonât
Yes i think youâre right. I had too many beers last night an iâm struggling. The compo picks will be in place already.
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Based on Twomeyâs mock draft and FA picks for Crouch, Joey and Williams (I didnât include Cameron), this was how the current top 11 picks get impacted if there are no trades.
1 - DOGS (NGA) - JUH
2 - ADL - MCDONALD
3 - ADL (FA) - HOLLANDS
4 - NORTH - THILTHORPE
5 - SWANS - DGB
6 - SWANS (NGA) - CAMPBELL
7 - HAWKS - PHILLIPS
8 - GC - BRUHN
9 - ESS - HENRY
10 - PORT (NGA) - JONES
11 - ESS (FA) - REID
12 - ESS (SAAD) - MACRAE
13 - ADL - PERKINS
14 - GC (NGA) - DAVIES
15 - GWS (FA) - CHAPMAN
16 - NORTH - COOK
17 - FREO - JEFFREY
18- GEE - POWELL
19 - PIES (FS) - McINNES
Edited to stop before dogs pick 12 as that is impacted by matching a bid for JUH
Probably right, but they canât get two first round compo picks can they?