Sydney Swans - we played them away and they won by 5 goals, which is about par
Carlton - rated slightly higher than us but not outplayed
Port Adelaide - beat us away, we had a bad night
Geelong Cats - yet to play
Collingwood - draw, they are probably 2/3rd best team in it
Fremantle - yet to play
GWS GIANTS - beat them at home, which is about par.
The argument that we have had an easy draw is rubbish and yes we have lost to top 8 sides interstate as you would expect. Geelong will be a good test and win that I would feel we are a top 5 side.
Everyone is assuming we will somehow alleviate our injury situation in the second half of the year.
We also dropped off heavily last year, so will be interesting how our conditioning fairs⌠The pessimist in me is wondering if our F50 drop off is the early warning sign of what to come.
Either way, I think weâd be extremely lucky to go injury free for the run home, so the question for me is⌠Assuming we have 3-4 players unavailable on average through the remainder of the year, I think some of our remaining games go from âshould winâ to âmaybe winâ.
This time last year everyone was saying that we would be playing finals, and we missed. I think we are a 50/50 chance of missing out again while playing a better brand of football.
A continued decline in form and with Sydney and Brisbane way to finish could see Essendon produce similar results to the final GWS and Collingwood games in 2024.
I think this is a really pessimistic analysis. On current form and injury, we should beat: WCE (Marvel), Adel (Marvel), GC (Marvel), Freo (Marvel). You think we will win one of: Cats, Dees, Saints. Probably fall short against: Pies, Bris (Away) and Syd (Marvel). So 13.5 wins will get into final 8, possibly even a home final depending how the coin lands elsewhere. We will have to have a 2023 style collapse to miss the 8.
I thought it interesting that in the post match presser on Sunday Brad talked about expectations being raised, both internally and externally. Iâm as optimistic as I can remember and Iâve been very pessimistic up until two weeks ago. From here, finishing top 6 should be the goal.
Cats, Pies, Dees is a real tough run and could decide our fate in that 3 week period. All feel gettable at the moment if we can bring our best footy. Two out of three would be a very good result, but Iâd even settle for one out of three.
After that it gets easier and if we are serious we should be winning all of Crows, Saints, Freo, Suns. I think we lose to Sydney and Brisbane could be a real 50-50 depending on whether their season is still alive or not.
In my opinion we should be targeting a 15 win season (7 more wins)
Win Eagles, Crows, Saints, Freo, Suns.
Win (at least) 2 of Cats, Pies, Dees, Lions
I think we are going ok. Very easily could have won both the GC and FC games.
Our forward line and forward 50 entries is a major concern though. 2MP doesnât even appear to be going for his marks, more intent on just tapping the ball forward. We really need a contested marking target, unfortunately 2MP is not that.
If Draper was available, Iâd be dropping 2MP and going back to Jones playing as the sole tall KPF. There is no doubt in my mind that 2MP coming back into the team has made our forward 50 entries too obvious and has had a negative impact on all our other forwards, especially Jones.
How is it that everyone can see it but the coaches. Itâs great looking at the number of forward 50 entries, but is the reason we have so many because the ball just goes out of the 50m so easily?
I definitely think the way the game unfolded on Sunday makes that stat misleading.
We couldnât score, or we scored points, so repeat inside 50m which balloons the number. Conversely, FC kicked a goal every time they went inside 50 so the ball goes back to the middle.
Yes. We have little defensive pressure. Stringer, wright, Langford and jones is too slow as a collective. We would benefit from one less tall/medium and one smaller forward but yeah, we dont have any
Most smart teams have figured this out with Essendon. Just wait for the inevitable bomb, turnover, and with precision to beat our press. It was so obviously at the ground on Sunday. Good teams will pick us apart. As Crazy Vossy said âprecision over territoryâ.
Thatâs true, but⌠theyâre at genuine rock bottom, have been for a couple of seasons. Their biggest mistake was beating the Suns and losing Harley Reid, anyway different time for that discussion.
I believe weâve taken a positive step forward, our floor has risen, our ceiling IMO has remained unchanged, thatâs where we need to make a move.
Iâm thinking we should win a minimum of 4 and a realistic maximum of 8 of games left to play
That gets us 12.5 to 16.5 wins for the year
Iâd be disappointed not to make finals and with a bit of luck even get a double chance
Suns freo Adelaide west coast all in Melb and winnable
Geelong and Melbourne and st kilda winnable but could lose two max.
Sydney Collingwood Brisbane unlikely but could snag Brisbane if theyâre out of finals contention.
Iâm hoping someone comes from the twos or a current âplodderâ in the ones emerges as a new star!! Wishful thinking maybe but itâs happened to other clubs.
Making finals then winning one would make this a good year. Not probable but more likely than in past years
He is absolutely down on form but I dont think its necessarily 2MPâs fault that the players just bomb it into him.
His biggest weakness is his contested marking and for some reason we play right into that.
We have looked good with him in the team when the players are kicking to him on the lead. We need to do more of that.
Injuries to key midfielders has really killed our ability to win clean clearances and get the ball in under a bit less pressure.
That and Stringer needs to get the fark out of the middle and stay in the forward line.
All of these are coaching issues that need to be addressed asap imo.