Tend to agree with Ealsey (can't seem to quote), but then I remember Roughhead and other Hawks fawning all over Carlisle with fake kindness when we last played them. Was so obvious they were attempting to butter him up: "come play with us, we're such a friendly mob".If that is all you have to go on, it is less than impressive.
They offered him big bikkies last year.
That is more substantial.
Saints guy on trade radio seemed pretty determined to do the Carlisle deal first up before settling on anybody else, Collingwood will get what's left for freeman.They will start with first this year and end up giving 5 and steak knives.
If we take next year pick then I think that puts Foggys OMeara play into overdrive.
Yes good call on OâMeara situation. If he did want to leave, Suns would be keen on us if we have two first round picks.
Not sure if weâll want to give up 2 first round picks for a guy with a bung knee.
Well we wont give up one if he has a bung knee. Assumption is he doesnât but we will see how he is this year and how his knee is responding.
Agreed. AFL trades break so many rules/assumptions behind what a "market" - in economic terms - requires to create fair and worthwhile prices that to say that the price that is paid is fair if the market paid it is ridiculous. Market assumptions like all players having equal power, smooth utilisation and cost curves, the ability to properly assess an object's value, a deep pool of participants, etc. As well as what you pointed out.Okay, let's say it's a market. The club getting the player is the buyer, no problem there. Who is the seller? The player who decides which customer to sell to, or the club that receives the price paid by the buyer? When the recipient of the payment is distinct from the person who makes the decision to sell, and the person who decides on the customer, you've broken the market model.Your wrong it is a market place.The AFL trade system isn't a market in any meaningful sense, and that's not what worth means anyway. Agree to disagree I guess.As I said, if Carlton offer him enough dosh he locks them in & dicks us, that's what he's worth, that's what the market will offer.If he was a commodity in a free market that would be true, but most commodities don't get to decide which customer they get sold to. If he nominates Carlton and goes to the PSD, that doesn't make him worth nothing. It just means we got nothing for him.I remain staggered by the idea that anyone thinks Carlisle isn't worth at least pick 5. If he was from any other team and available in the draft, you'd happily spend our pick 4 on him.He's worth what the market will offer.
The idea that the AFL trading system is a market and therefore any price is fair is just ignorance of basic economics.
Would Jake go at 5 if he was in the draft?I think he'd go to Gold Coast. He doesn't quite fit Brisbane/Carlton's list profile given his age if they have to give up picks one or two. Although they might like the certainty, if they take 5-6 years to rebuild he's actually close to 30 when they start pushing again. Plus Brisbane really want Sache. But GCS would love a 24 year old potential AA KPD.
So heâd probably go at #3.
Itâs not a true & proper âMarketâ, itâs more like a so called âFree Trade Agreementâ ⌠funny that.
As I said, if Carlton offer him enough dosh he locks them in & dicks us, that's what he's worth, that's what the market will offer.I remain staggered by the idea that anyone thinks Carlisle isn't worth at least pick 5. If he was from any other team and available in the draft, you'd happily spend our pick 4 on him.He's worth what the market will offer.If he was a commodity in a free market that would be true, but most commodities donât get to decide which customer they get sold to. If he nominates Carlton and goes to the PSD, that doesnât make him worth nothing. It just means we got nothing for him.
The AFL trade system isnât a market in any meaningful sense, and thatâs not what worth means anyway. Agree to disagree I guess.
Your wrong it is a market place.
Okay, letâs say itâs a market. The club getting the player is the buyer, no problem there. Who is the seller? The player who decides which customer to sell to, or the club that receives the price paid by the buyer? When the recipient of the payment is distinct from the person who makes the decision to sell, and the person who decides on the customer, youâve broken the market model.
The buyer and sellers are the clubs the commodity is the player, the AFL set the rules of the market place.
Just because the commodity, under the rules of the market place, can further influence the value of the commodity and thus the price paid by the buyer doesnât change the model.
Anyone saying we should accept next yearâs pick is bonkers. Pick #5 is, even in todayâs trading environs, fair. Carlisle walked in the ND and St Kilda would be happy to use pick #5 on him. If he made it that far. There is a time value to money, and to risk, and we would be taking that all on. With St Kilda getting to strengthen their side like Blummers32 wrote. The odds would be all on their side that we end up with something in the #8 to #12 range in a future draft.
With pick #5 we could (probably) easily trade to GWS for two picks in this year and next yearâs drafts in a similar range. GWS will have a plethora of 2015 and 2016 1st round picks from the Treloar and McCarthy trades, whoever leaves next year, and their own picks. They value top picks, and prefer quality over quantity. We offer #5 theyâd probably jump at giving up a mid-range 1st round pick this year and their next year one. They probably think theyâll finish top 8 so it will have less value anyway. And bingo, we have the two 1st rounders for 2016 again already for any trade, plus an extra pick in this yearâs first round.
St Kildaâs #5 pick must be the minimum we get from them. Ignore Carlton, if Carlisle chooses them weâre screwed. Weâre only dealing with St Kilda if Carlisle nominates them, and then pick #5 has to be the minimum. And our starting point in negotiations should be higher than that.
.... I think pick 5 is more than reasonable in the circumstances. Another interesting trade idea being floated on trade whispers is: Carlisle + our 2nd Rounder = Pick 5 and Saints 1st Rounder next year. The theory being that it gives Saints room to on-trade that pick for Freeman and still have a top 30 pick this year. Otherwise they may struggle to justify not having any picks in the first two rounds this year....That is an interesting scenario, effectively a top 10 pick and 2nd to 1st pick upgrade with slightly reduced value due to the time element. In my view it is slightly below Carlisle's true worth, which makes it better than the recent AFL trade price has been. I would accept pick #5 simply because I think we'll struggle to get more than that (I wouldn't accept less).
However, I could see the Saints going for this, if theyâre putting their chips in the âletâs rocket up like Port/Bulldogsâ pile. As Blummers32 said they could theoretically be trading in Carlisle, Freeman, Hrovat, be getting more out of McCartin and Billings, and try and push up the ladder. Depending on how they rate their list the deal might be worth it from their perspective.
I remain staggered by the idea that anyone thinks Carlisle isn't worth at least pick 5. If he was from any other team and available in the draft, you'd happily spend our pick 4 on him.He's worth what the market will offer.
So by that rule Patrick Ryder was worth on pick 17 n 37 in last year draft⌠wooohoooâŚ
Correct.
As I said, if Carlton offer him enough dosh he locks them in & dicks us, that's what he's worth, that's what the market will offer.I remain staggered by the idea that anyone thinks Carlisle isn't worth at least pick 5. If he was from any other team and available in the draft, you'd happily spend our pick 4 on him.He's worth what the market will offer.If he was a commodity in a free market that would be true, but most commodities donât get to decide which customer they get sold to. If he nominates Carlton and goes to the PSD, that doesnât make him worth nothing. It just means we got nothing for him.
The AFL trade system isnât a market in any meaningful sense, and thatâs not what worth means anyway. Agree to disagree I guess.
Your wrong it is a market place.
Okay, letâs say itâs a market. The club getting the player is the buyer, no problem there. Who is the seller? The player who decides which customer to sell to, or the club that receives the price paid by the buyer? When the recipient of the payment is distinct from the person who makes the decision to sell, and the person who decides on the customer, youâve broken the market model.
Would Jake go at 5 if he was in the draft?I think minimum pick 1 this year draft
Tell him to go â â â â himself. Give us Pick 5 or PSD.Some list management guy on SEN this morning reckons St Kilda should try and work a pick 10 or 11 for Carlisle and not give up their pick 5. Not sure how they'll make that happen since they're trying to bring in players from other clubs and will have to give up either picks or players. Richardson clearly rates Carlisle and wants him bad. How good would picks 4 and 5 be? #ifonlyChris PelchenHe seemed to be saying Saints should trade 5 for 10 and 28. ( for example, only, not specifically those picks). Then give us pick 10 for Jake and use 28 elsewhere. Typical Pelchen, they did similar downgrades to get Tom Lee. That worked well⌠But its pointlessly complicated anyway unless they specifically want someone other than us to have #5 because Iâm sure a swap of 2nd /thirds etc could be worked out direct.
We ended up getting Ports 1st and 2nd rounders for Ryder.. that is more of less what we were always going to get. The fact that Port didn't have a high pick isn't really their fault. The club was hoping to force them to do a 3rd party deal but it didn't happen. We didn't get as royally screwed in that trade as some suggest.Essendon have told Tom Browne they now have two better offers for Carlisle. Over to you SaintsYes, but we also got a better offer from GWS for Ryder last year, but that didnât help us did it? The only way this would assist is if a) Jake actually agrees to join that club that offers the best trade to us, or b) we head down the mediation path and say we got 3 clubs who all offered up better deals than St.Kilda did.
The fact we have better offers from other clubs will absolutely help once we get to mediation. It helps show the âmarket valueâ of a player and St Kilda will be encouraged to stop acting like farkwits and hand over pick 5 and possibly more.
Also as Jakey is chasing $$$⌠I reckon you could send him on a tour at other clubs just to freak Saints out a little bit.
As I said, if Carlton offer him enough dosh he locks them in & dicks us, that's what he's worth, that's what the market will offer.I remain staggered by the idea that anyone thinks Carlisle isn't worth at least pick 5. If he was from any other team and available in the draft, you'd happily spend our pick 4 on him.He's worth what the market will offer.If he was a commodity in a free market that would be true, but most commodities donât get to decide which customer they get sold to. If he nominates Carlton and goes to the PSD, that doesnât make him worth nothing. It just means we got nothing for him.
The AFL trade system isnât a market in any meaningful sense, and thatâs not what worth means anyway. Agree to disagree I guess.
Your wrong it is a market place.
Billings played every game until injured
I'd take next years 1st rounder plus next years 2nd rounder for jake and this years third. Whilst they are improving I reckon their ladder position might stagnate and could get worse, with any luck I reckon we'll be 8th to 12th next year and no way will gcs be as bad. I don't know what the predictions are about next years draft but I think deferring at least one of our late picks till next year plus improving our position would work wellI wouldn't gamble on that. The Saints look to add Freeman, Carlisle, Hrovat and whoever they get at pick 5 would see them rise up the ladder this year. Just remember, McCartin barely played and Billings didn't get a good run at it either.Iâd take this yearâs pick and be content that we know what weâre getting.
True, but it would be kinda fun barracking against stkilda every week!
Some list management guy on SEN this morning reckons St Kilda should try and work a pick 10 or 11 for Carlisle and not give up their pick 5. Not sure how they'll make that happen since they're trying to bring in players from other clubs and will have to give up either picks or players. Richardson clearly rates Carlisle and wants him bad. How good would picks 4 and 5 be? #ifonlyChris Pelchen
He seemed to be saying Saints should trade 5 for 10 and 28. ( for example, only, not specifically those picks). Then give us pick 10 for Jake and use 28 elsewhere. Typical Pelchen, they did similar downgrades to get Tom Lee. That worked well⌠But its pointlessly complicated anyway unless they specifically want someone other than us to have #5 because Iâm sure a swap of 2nd /thirds etc could be worked out direct.
Saints guy on trade radio seemed pretty determined to do the Carlisle deal first up before settling on anybody else, Collingwood will get what's left for freeman.They will start with first this year and end up giving 5 and steak knives.
If we take next year pick then I think that puts Foggys OMeara play into overdrive.
Yes good call on OâMeara situation. If he did want to leave, Suns would be keen on us if we have two first round picks.
Not sure if weâll want to give up 2 first round picks for a guy with a bung knee.
As I said, if Carlton offer him enough dosh he locks them in & dicks us, that's what he's worth, that's what the market will offer.I remain staggered by the idea that anyone thinks Carlisle isn't worth at least pick 5. If he was from any other team and available in the draft, you'd happily spend our pick 4 on him.He's worth what the market will offer.If he was a commodity in a free market that would be true, but most commodities donât get to decide which customer they get sold to. If he nominates Carlton and goes to the PSD, that doesnât make him worth nothing. It just means we got nothing for him.
The AFL trade system isnât a market in any meaningful sense, and thatâs not what worth means anyway. Agree to disagree I guess.
Saints guy on trade radio seemed pretty determined to do the Carlisle deal first up before settling on anybody else, Collingwood will get what's left for freeman.They will start with first this year and end up giving 5 and steak knives.
If we take next year pick then I think that puts Foggys OMeara play into overdrive.
Yes good call on OâMeara situation. If he did want to leave, Suns would be keen on us if we have two first round picks.
If Tom Boyd is worth #6 plus Ryan Griffin then Carlisle is worth #5 (easily)