A thread about rain and no other things


#1182

Very very underrated movie


#1183

Forecast rain: 1-2 mm
Actual rain: 3 mm


#1184

Clearly a BOM conspiracy.


#1185

They cooked it up with yesterday’s umpires.


#1186

WINTER IS COMING!!

:no_mouth:


#1187

I heard this for tomorrow.

“Melbourne is set to face its coldest and wettest day of the year on Friday as part of a system expected to drench some suburbs with as much as 30 millimetres of rain.”


#1188

It’s been rather damp on the south-west coast today.

16.6mm in Port Fairy, 25mm in Warrnambool, 28.4mm in Mortlake.

It’s just persisted down since lunchtime.


#1189

from the radar I figured you’d have gotten a bit


#1190

We live, underneath the radar.


#1191

there’s a good bit of it around


#1192

It is persisting down in Moonee Ponds right now. Hard to distinguish where the road stops and the nature strip begins…


#1193

Gee whiz - that’s a very steep road.


#1194

Murder on the quads.


#1195

Definitely need to nail your handbrake start.


#1196

But the water isnt running downhill…?


#1197

I don’t know if the below is true but if so this will change how everyone looks at forecasts forever more. It’s good hidden info but having only a 25% chance of being in the predicted range is a tad odd, and not what Jane Public thinks it means.


#1198

it is true. it is explained on the BOM website. A few years ago they changed the terminology around their forecasts owing to people complaining about their confusing nature and “apparent” inaccuracy. They dumped terms like “scattered showers, widespread rain” etc in favour of % based predictive terminology. Trouble is most people still don’t actually know this or what it means because most people don’t care enough to look into it. They just want to know if it’s sunny or rainy and complain if doesn’t do what they thought it would. The BOM however have to try and protect themselves against a whole range of possibilities and give forecasts with the greatest reasonable range but not seem like sitting on the fence. They do forecasts out to a week which are really just educated guesses based on automated computer modelling. My rule of thumb is to simply rule out anything outlandish beyond about 3-4 days.

I’m far too much of a pedant about these things but only because I take a keen interest in the weather as I’m a keen snow goer and want to know when it is or isn’t gonna snow. I look at it a lot including a lot of different sources.

Do I think it’ll rain on Sunday? Probably. Do I think it’ll rain during the game on Sunday? Possibly. Do I think it’ll hose down like it did last Saturday night? Not based on current forecast modelling.

The most accurate computer forecast model available to the public at ~4 days+ is the European model which is used by Yr.No. It’s currently predicting ~2ml of rain between the hours of 10am-4pm on Sunday.


#1199

and because you have thread purely about rainfall… yesterday’s metro totals from 9am to 9am this morning. I felt every one of those 18mm in Mordialloc when I was picking the kids up from daycare…


#1200

Thank you for validating my praise for the Norwegians. I like them almost as much as the Estonians.


#1201

@choppsuey

seeing all your recent weather posts across a couple of threads, this weather forecast stuff is like ■■■■ to you