A thread about rain and no other things


Very very underrated movie


Forecast rain: 1-2 mm
Actual rain: 3 mm


Clearly a BOM conspiracy.


They cooked it up with yesterday’s umpires.





I heard this for tomorrow.

“Melbourne is set to face its coldest and wettest day of the year on Friday as part of a system expected to drench some suburbs with as much as 30 millimetres of rain.”


It’s been rather damp on the south-west coast today.

16.6mm in Port Fairy, 25mm in Warrnambool, 28.4mm in Mortlake.

It’s just persisted down since lunchtime.


from the radar I figured you’d have gotten a bit


We live, underneath the radar.


there’s a good bit of it around


It is persisting down in Moonee Ponds right now. Hard to distinguish where the road stops and the nature strip begins…


Gee whiz - that’s a very steep road.


Murder on the quads.


Definitely need to nail your handbrake start.


But the water isnt running downhill…?


I don’t know if the below is true but if so this will change how everyone looks at forecasts forever more. It’s good hidden info but having only a 25% chance of being in the predicted range is a tad odd, and not what Jane Public thinks it means.


it is true. it is explained on the BOM website. A few years ago they changed the terminology around their forecasts owing to people complaining about their confusing nature and “apparent” inaccuracy. They dumped terms like “scattered showers, widespread rain” etc in favour of % based predictive terminology. Trouble is most people still don’t actually know this or what it means because most people don’t care enough to look into it. They just want to know if it’s sunny or rainy and complain if doesn’t do what they thought it would. The BOM however have to try and protect themselves against a whole range of possibilities and give forecasts with the greatest reasonable range but not seem like sitting on the fence. They do forecasts out to a week which are really just educated guesses based on automated computer modelling. My rule of thumb is to simply rule out anything outlandish beyond about 3-4 days.

I’m far too much of a pedant about these things but only because I take a keen interest in the weather as I’m a keen snow goer and want to know when it is or isn’t gonna snow. I look at it a lot including a lot of different sources.

Do I think it’ll rain on Sunday? Probably. Do I think it’ll rain during the game on Sunday? Possibly. Do I think it’ll hose down like it did last Saturday night? Not based on current forecast modelling.

The most accurate computer forecast model available to the public at ~4 days+ is the European model which is used by Yr.No. It’s currently predicting ~2ml of rain between the hours of 10am-4pm on Sunday.


and because you have thread purely about rainfall… yesterday’s metro totals from 9am to 9am this morning. I felt every one of those 18mm in Mordialloc when I was picking the kids up from daycare…


Thank you for validating my praise for the Norwegians. I like them almost as much as the Estonians.



seeing all your recent weather posts across a couple of threads, this weather forecast stuff is like ■■■■ to you