What if the industry standard is that it’s a crapshoot?
People complain about keeping player x on the list for too long(jerret)
They also complain that the strike rate for picks greater than 30 is ordinary.
The two facets are related.
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Well, just if you were trying to adjust for luck and development. So if everyone rates a player (e.g. Gumby, Thorpe and Hansen from 2006), then the fact all three didn’t work out isn’t down to the recruiters. But if actually 60% of recruiters didn’t think Thorpe was worth a first rounder due to risks, or that Gumby was a crock, or that Hansen wouldn’t develop, well then actually they were just bad calls.
And vice versa, it would be interesting if the recruiting team’s view of the chances of late picks vary much. Like, did they pick Fantasia and think - he’ll make it, or did they just think he was the best option of a lot of very long odds, and we got lucky he developed and the guy picked before didn’t?
Obviously, we can’t quantify any of this. I’m just writing from a speculative, theoretical kind of view, when considering how you decide if a recruiter has been successful or not.
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I can see us Delisting Morgan this year and adding him as a Rookie.
Ones im probably most annoyed about - Mathieson - tho could have been bad for culture with parish led him astray. And also cause we took Morgan who has been injury prone.
Witherden, I thought we missed out on(ie pick before Ridley), but we chose Ridley instead just before him, so I hope he can have a decent crack at it. from the VFL reports it sounds like he has it, but will take time, and we are in no rush with decent selection pressure from the VFL side already.
We are possibly left a bit open to other clubs trying to raid our talent and offer them senior opportunities. With laverde, langford, Francis, Ridley, Begley all playing reserves, so I hope they get some more games in the back end of the year.
Ridleys rate of progress, has been quite impressive, looks very composed.
I’d dare say without his injury would probably be looking at or knocking on the door of first team footy.
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You start off asking a fairly reasonable question and then go no way towards answering it by listing players we took and comparing it to other players who might of been available (to all clubs not just us). Surely the comparison you’ve invited in your question is who we took against a pre-draft fantasy selection i.e. with that pick who was the next available player in the fantasy draft order. Now if those picks are better than the ones we took I’ll accept we have a problem!
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Honestly cant imagine how bad Blitz would meltdown if we used a high draft pick to pick up an injured kid who never got right. Now people are complaining we didnt risk our picks on some of these players because things have turned out ok for them. For every Burton or Witherden there is a Jaeger.
I trust in Dodoro. Honestly the work of our recruiters to get us through what could have been a crippling couple of years has been amazing.
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Not sure about Langford, but none of the others are out-of-contract this year.
We’ve got next year too, for some of them.
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Not all recruiters stick to script. Blaine Boekhurst and Tom Doedee say hi.
Christian Howard anyone?
Yes, I agree, that would be a vaild way of doing it. I just don’t have the time to do it at the moment.
However, my view has evolved and there seems to be a broad agreement that without knowing what everyone club’s recruiting team thought of each pick.
The lastest example in this thread is a good one from Ants.
If half the club’s were gasping when Gumby, Thorpe and Hansen were called out and were thinking…“gee, I had that guy at 60-70…” then those picks were complete failures…but we’ll never know whether they thought that or if they thought they would have drafted the players there as well.
So perhaps the only way to determine at all if anyone is a good recruiter is to go through every draft and determine the picks that are deemed ‘surprises’ and see how they worked out. Thus assuming all the other picks are broadly what the crowd would have picked.
Would it be possible we get the Women’s team in front of Richmond? They might have the throw their “Provisional License” into the microwave. Lol.
What about the kid we picked up at 7 despite his dodgy groins?
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Have you not heard the whinging for the last 10 years about Gumbleton, from morons who think his injuries prove that the recruiters know nothing?
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I think rookies are main list from 2018.
You think they have no performance measures outside of round 1 and 2 selections?
Dodoro first saw JoeyD as a kid playing indoor soccer with his son and saw the talent and was determined to get him at the club through the James Hird Academy. I can tell you Sydney came hard and it took a lot of hard work to get him to stay at Essendon. Joey took his time
Another Daniher tall story for the Bombers
JULY 2, 201210:36PM
Jay Clark
HeraldSun
ADRIAN Dodoro could hardly believe what he had just discovered on an indoor soccer pitch in Tullamarine.
Essendon’s recruiting chief was there watching his and assistant coach Mark Thompon’s sons play, when Dodoro’s eyes were drawn to a tall boy with deft touch.
Clearly impressed, Dodoro asked for the 12-year-old’s name. “That’s Joe Daniher,” he was told - the son of Bombers great Anthony.
“I thought all my Christmases had come at once,” Dodoro said yesterday. “He just had an unbelievable ability to balance a soccer ball, on left and right. Before that, I didn’t know who the hell he was.”
Nearly six years later, the 201cm ruckman-forward is considered one of the top three underage players in the country.
He has exceptional agility and marking skills and has been at Windy Hill almost every day recently, training and preparing for life in the AFL.
Yesterday, the teenager who will be the Bombers’ first pick in November’s draft recalled the moment his destiny changed.
“I never thought I was good enough at footy to make it in the big time,” he said of his reaction to his first encounter with Dodoro.
“But I had to give up soccer pretty quickly after that and they put a footy back in my hand.”
Daniher will take centre stage tomorrow, trying to help Vic Metro to the national under-18 championship.
From there, he will consider the merits of playing VFL, like Melbourne’s Jack Viney, to fast-track his development.
From Essendon’s perspective, he will be a glittering addition to a forward combination boasting Michael Hurley, Paddy Ryder and Stewart Crameri.
Originally published as Another Daniher tall story for Dons