Adrian Dodoro - Flankers into Mids since 2000 (Part 1)

What if Joe Daniher had chosen Sydney? Emma Quayle

15 May 2014, 9:25 p.m.

Not even Joe Daniher’s parents knew what he would do, when he jumped in the car after Christmas four years ago, heading from Temora back to Melbourne with his older brother Darcy. “By the time I get home I’ll have made my decision,” he told his mother, and the rest of the family spent the next six hours wondering whether he would choose Essendon or Sydney, taking bets until he called back as promised, mind made up. “Mum,” he said, “I’m going to be a Bomber.”

It made sense, but Daniher was a thoughtful, thorough teenager in a unique position at the end of 2010, able not only to choose between two clubs under the father-son rule, but to sign on almost two full years before he was old enough to be drafted. He was only 16, but he wanted to make his own decision. He kept his thoughts to himself but his choice was not an easy one, or anything near clear cut. It was also a call that has had implications, in a “what if?” kind of way, for him, other players and both clubs.

Would the Swans still have pursued Kurt Tippett had they known Daniher was coming at the end of 2012? Probably, but they wouldn’t have had a first-round pick to offer Adelaide for him, so would they have traded players to the Crows instead? If so, who? Had that happened, and the deal been pushed through easily, would Adelaide’s secretive salary cap deals with Tippett ever have come to light? Would the Crows have been punished as they were? If Sydney’s offer had never happened, would Tippett have ended up on the Gold Coast or with Brisbane instead?

There are other hypotheticals. Had the Swans brought in both Tippett and Daniher, they probably wouldn’t have drafted young forward Tim Membrey, who would have relied on another club to call his name and would be starting his career at another club, in another state. They certainly wouldn’t have Dean Towers, the player picked with the first-round choice they would have had to use on Daniher. And the next question is: with Tippett, Sam Reid and the promising Daniher on board, would the club have thrown so much at Lance Franklin, or would he be playing for the Giants? Or the Hawks?

“It’s an interesting one. I’m not sure what we would have done,” said Sydney chief executive Andrew Ireland. “Joe’s a really talented player and we would love to have him, but you talk to all sorts of players over the journey. If they make their mind up not to come, you move on to the next decision.”

The Bombers would have had to look elsewhere for their next big, young forward, had Daniher chosen the other team. They might, in that case, have had more money for Stewart Crameri last year. They might have tried to convince Scott Gumbleton to stick around one more year, or held onto Josh Jenkins. The club had pick 19 in 2011 and chose midfielder Elliott Kavanagh, with Richmond recruit Todd Elton and West Coast’s Fraser McInnes the only other tall forwards taken in that part of the draft. Had they waited another year, Brodie Grundy may well have headed their way.

But back to Daniher, who was seriously wooed by both clubs and who needed to make his mind up early because the rules surrounding the 17-year-olds that Greater Western Sydney could trade away at the end of 2011 were wishy-washy. Committing to Sydney or Essendon, where his father Anthony’s 233 games were almost evenly split, meant not getting caught up in that.

The Bombers had watched Daniher grow up: at 12, he’d played on the same indoor soccer team as list manager Adrian Dodoro’s son. His family was Essendon. He lived just a few minutes from Windy Hill and the club knew his brother well; though that didn’t necessarily help: Darcy’s long run of injury and subsequent struggles had exposed him and his family to the darker side of football.

A crew of campaigners landed on the Danihers’ doorstep every now and then, a combination of Dodoro, recruiting manager Merv Keane, chief executive Ian Robson and coach Matthew Knights. The Bombers planned a conditioning program for Joe, and told him where they saw him fitting in to the team of the not too distant future. But in the end it was another person who made sure they got what they wanted: James Hird, who called not long after he was appointed coach late in 2010, telling Joey his first important job was to make sure he got him to Essendon.

The Swans worked just as hard, and came very, very close. They flew Daniher to Sydney a few times, showed him around the facilities, took him to games and invited him to the best-and-fairest night. He went out for dinner with Adam Goodes, got to know the players and listened to John Longmire outline his plans for him. The coach-to-be would drop by when he was in Melbourne, and stick around for dinner.

As tightly as his family was tied to Essendon, Joe also had strong links to Sydney. His mother’s sister is married to Tony Morwood, the Swans’ Melbourne manager; and the club’s football and welfare managers Dean Moore and Dennis Carroll are good friends of his parents. Player personnel manager Kinnear Beatson and chief executive Andrew Ireland also played a big part in pushing the Swans’ case. The Swans have always been the Danihers’ second favourite club; they have friends there, and a dog named after Brett Kirk.

“I remember after one meeting that we flew home, and waiting for us was a massive bunch of flowers, a contract offer for us to pore over and a bottle of red wine,” said Daniher’s mother Jo. “The same thing happened with the Bombers – the flowers and the envelope. No wine from the Bombers though!”

Daniher made his mind up on the second last day of 2010, and called both clubs to let them know. The Swans had believed they were a huge chance, but lost a little hope after Hird signed on. The Bombers landed perhaps thekey part of their future, and Daniher was ready to get started.

“They’ve looked after my family for so many years,” he said when he became a Bomber for real, at the end of 2012. “I’m looking to repay them for what they’ve done for my family and what they’ve done for me.”

The story What if Joe Daniher had chosen Sydney? first appeared on The Sydney Morning Herald.

http://www.esperanceexpress.com.au/story/2284673/what-if-joe-daniher-had-chosen-sydney/

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No. Not quite

But I think the stats say any pick after a certain point (55? something like that) have similar expected outcomes.
The AFL points allotted to draft picks for bidding on F/S and academy kids reflects this: after that certain point they’re all worth the same (zero)

The points stop at 73, but because there’s a set discount after the first round (197 points), any bid from 55 on can be matched for free.

…yeah that.

So…uhh…did we work out what this was about?

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yeah, we launched our final bid for a womens team.

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Sounds about right.

If we loose to FCFC then somebody better drop the new to stave off mass sucides.

Notice how when we lose, the ‘from the coaches’ is up in about an hour. when we win the next day?

I heard it’s Bernard Tomic as a category B rookie.

Dodoro has been at the club for 20 years time for some one new imo.

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This thread is symbolic of what’s wrong with current day media. Everyone wants to be that first one to break the news, so they go early with the wrong news.

We could have opened a circle jerk thread for Adrian after we at least win one ■■■■■■ final.

Im ambivalent to him. I like the jacket memes, not a fan of the clubs drafting theories and list demographics.

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Can’t comment on the drafting theories… as not sure which part of it you don’t like. Come to think of it… I don’t even know what our drafting theories are.

But in terms of list demographics, you simply have to acknowledge that he needs at least one trading / draft period after the saga to start to rebalance. I personally would give him two.

The what type of player you draft in ranges. Best talent, risk pick, safe player.

I firmly believe it should be best available. Safe player then risky picks with your last draft picks.

I also question the recruiting of Cooney and Chapman.

What’s best available to you? The best performed player in the U18s? The least likely to fail? The most likely to be a star?

Just wondering because it often turns out different people mean different things by ‘best available’ as witnessed by the #1 pick discussions last year.

I mean the first round he’s got it right it’s the rest. Like Redman/Morgan over a midfielder that suits what we need more.

I can’t really expand at the moment because I’m at work. But I’ve outlined a lot of what I disagree with over the off season in the draft threads.

Also I don’t really mean specifics just the mentality going into it.

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The issue I’m grappling with and tbh I’m not sure how to assess. Is the lack midfield coming through.

On the one hand the cupboard looks pretty bare, lav, Langford, begley and mutch. It’s way to shallow for my liking.

On the other hand we have Stanton, Hocking, Howlett and Bird playing ressies. Which indicates that the kids have already pushed a fair chunk of the B Grade mids out of the team.

We could have been in the reverse situation where the old blokes played, then we would say we had lots of good kids as likely that Parish, McG and McKenna would be playing reserves.

Is it a case of victim of our own success that we have already made a significant transition so the talented kids are already playing?

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We don’t really have depth of talent in the right area. We have a lot of older guys who in many cases have been on the list too long but aren’t actually good consistent performers. Most of these guys will be gone next year. We have 2 genuine young mids in the side already who are our best & best hope (Zerrett & Parish) beyond that none of the young guys have any exposed form in the midfield. McGrath certainly looks to have the tools but Langford & Laverde I don’t believe are mids & have not shown anything in there. Fanta can run through there but FFS we haven’t had a forward like him for 20 years so it shows how poor our list is that we flirt with him outside the forward line. We really only have 2 mid, who’ve had any level of consistent form & in their prime - Zaka & to some extent Heppell. Colyer has been terrible, Myers has been as I expected. We can bemoan the saga till the cows come home but it was the drafting & trading before the saga which have caused the lack of prime aged mids not the saga.

We focused on talls before the saga. Talls take time to come on, so it makes sense to get them first. The saga period was when we were planning to target mids. The idea was for the talls and the mids to all peak around 2015. We probably would have traded picks for a top mid or chased a free agent. Clearly this didn’t happen as planned.

There’s nothing wrong with our pre-saga strategy.

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By all reports we planned to draft Lobb in 2013 until we were lucky enough for Zerret to fall to us. As for the hope that we would have traded a top mid I have to ask - what exactly gives you confidence this would have happened? We didn’t do it pre-saga in spite of being out of the finals for 10 years so why do you believe Dodoro would have suddenly landed that big fish in 2013/14 if not for the saga? If the plan was for say 2015 then the mids needed to have drafted 7-4 years earlier. Sure talls take longer but mids also peak in their mid 20’s. Its guys like Myers, Melksham & Kavanagh who didn’t pan out & then missing our second rounders on guys like Steinberg, Long, Jerrett & Ashby that has killed any plan we had. This is the reason why we have a gap in our list. I can’t really buy that the strategy was to be really crap for a decade & then strike in 2014 when nobody expected it.

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