CJohns, I agree the list is building back up quicker than certainly I expected. It is making me reconsider how long off a window might be. But there were two paragraphs I want to pick up on.
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2017 for me will likely have the strongest playing list at Essendon since 2001 I would suggest. We have genuinely found 5 quality players already this year with the likes of Fantasia, Parish, Tippa. Langford & Leuenberger …not to mention we have Francis and Laverde still to come having injuries. No doubt a big weakness of ours in recent years was guys being able to break the lines with genuine speed so we can’t under estimate how big Tippa, Fantasia and Parish growth is for us….especially with overnight news of Colyer remaining and Zach Merrett becoming a star.
You need a deep midfield of about 10 players rotating through your team like the Hawks have shown so in 2017 our midfield could be Watson, Zaharakis, Myers, Heppell, Z. Merrett, Parish, Laverde, Colyer, Hocking & Fantasia. Now if that doesn’t get you excited not much will. It allows smart older Midfield players to setup in other parts of the ground to help fill gaps like Goddard, Stanton etc. Down back it gets even better, Hibberd, Hurley, Tippa, Gleeson, Baguley and Hartley. This setup allows what I think the club to do a strategic move to boost the forward setup. Francis is a very good forward as well as back and I know before CAS they were thinking of him as a forward…no doubt marking and reading the play is his strength. So now you can setup a forward line of Daniher, Francis, Hooker, Redman. If anything we are probably 1-2 smart small forwards short but hoping Eades can come on to fill one of those spots. We will have a low draft pick next year so will be interesting if they target a trade or kid…
Sorry, but anyone who thinks 2017 will be our strongest year is being extremely optimistic. In 2013 we had Ryder, Fletcher, Carlisle, Crameri, Winderlich, Davey who have all left. Goddard, Stanton and Watson were all late twenties in age and at their peak. Dempsey, Belly and Myers had career best years, yet to be replicated. The team is not going to be in that same space next year, even with JD coming on, Heppell older and the kids you listed.
And those were mostly kids you listed in the first paragraph I quoted. Fantasia, Parish, Zerrett and Tippa are all looking good. But nobody is taking them seriously yet. Nobody is setting out to stop Zerrett and take him out of the game. Nobody has analysed Fantasia, Parish, Gleeson, Hartley, Brown or Tippa’s games and said “here is how we nullify them”. At the moment, we’re chalked down as a win, and minimal work goes into us. That will change, and those players may or may not overcome it. They also haven’t shown the consistency you need to be sure things (well, Zerrett aside). Others like Langford haven’t yet proven anything, let alone guys not yet even in the side or played. Francis could go the same way as most #6 picks - be a dud. Hopefully not, but banking on him now is ridiculous. Same with Redman and others. How many hopes were pinned on Kav, Gumby, Melksham and Pears?
On the second paragraph I quoted, the idea that some of the older players can play in positions that don’t suit them is absolutely uncertain. Howlett has had limited impact outside the centre square. Same with Stanton.
So in summary, I think you’re being way optimistic.
see nothing about it being extremely optimistic. We have had a poor list from 2002 onwards and I have no issue in my opinion believing the list next year if 12 come back would be strongest for a year since then. I obviously don't assume they are all best 22 either but depth is very strong. I would suggest Ryder and Fletcher are the notable structural players who have left and the others you mentioned were good solid players only. Tagging is no longer a big part of the game so I don't see your issue of no one targeting Zerrett yet. Todays game is more one on one than previous years. Francis I will back in when fit...not sure why that's ridiculous but your call. Dodoro rates him just as impressive as Parish I do know.
4 x All Australians come into the side next year might i add. Including also Hibberd who was unlucky not to be All Australia a few years back. Had a year of injuries and tough times mentally so a year off will no doubt freshen up their bodies and minds. I expect their mind to be very sharp and focused which is half the battle on playing good footy. This is the key. Its when these guys and the club are at a good place mentally which has not been the case for sometime.
I expect guys like Gwilt and Cooney to have their last year so age of group has a reasonable balance.
This young team smashed Geelong in clearances on the weekend. I am comfortable in my optimism.
Reading that CJohns, it's clear we're coming from a very different view on the list now and in the past. I thought 2013 to 2015 our list was good enough to challenge. Not necessarily to win - Hawthorn was a damn good side - but good enough to be right up there. IMO the saga wrecked that, but the talent was there. So for me, to say we'll be as good in 2017 as that team is a huge leap of faith. To write off players like Winderlich and Carlisle as "good solid players" only is, IMO, ridiculous. As much as I think getting Winders to stay on in 2015 was wrong, I completely understand why they did it. Since Davey left, we've only had two players with seasons who averaged more goals per game (JD both years, Carlisle 2014).
I’m not sure how that some of the returning players are AA or close makes any difference. Their return resets us to the 2015 list when they were there. The 2015 list minus Carlisle, minus ageing and/or getting rusty, offset by the improvement in the kids + Leuenberger. Will they be better than 2015? Probably. How far was the 2015 side off being a contender? Miles.
I know there is a lot of view that players will come back determined, clean of mind and spirit, and it will give us a big boost. But last year, when we’d won the saga, before WADA appealed, we had about 7 games. Even allowing for rust at the start, we were ordinary. So I’m not sure what drives this view. Against that we also have the possibility guys will come back rusty and take a while to get back up to speed.
After all that, I find it funny that you’re suggesting probably our best or second best defender this year should be delisted. Gwilt has been critical to our defence, and you want him gone? But heh, he’s not one of the 12 so he can be discarded despite form, right?