Not sure anyone really gives a fark who wins these seats.
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Which was your booth ?
The Brethren grubs on my booth were telling others that Labor was telling lies about them and that they voted. I asked the leader numpty to swear on his bible and he refused. They were weird, but I did have being a jerk to them.
Being conservative towards the incumbent, my final result guess is:
ALP 90
LNP 46
OTH 14
ALP could get as high as 94 if absolutely everything went their way from here (which it wonât), and 92 is optimistic but feasible given the status Bullwinkel and Longman.
I donât think LNP can get above 47, assuming every seat they are contesting falls their way. In the above estimate of 46, my guess is that Ryan (just) holds Kooyong. Could be as low as 44 if Bullwinkel and Longman go ALP.
For the most part, every seat the LNP is now contesting, they are in good positions.
Letâs see how accurate this is in a few days time.
Also, FWIW - 90 seats is what Abbott won in 2013. This talk of the LNP being gone forever is just hysteria. Itâs more difficult now with the size of the crossbench, but history indicates itâs not a terminal thing.
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While they might not have been paid directly to do the HTV, I suspect they get paid in kind by their Church. The outlay by the charitable arm could be funnelled to them in line with the good works the charity is registered for. That covers homelessness, education and special assistance to a younger adult age demographic, also for religious type assistance. . I bet all the good works go to signed up Church members, . Its expenses are far more than its annual income.
The Charities Commissioner needs to investigate whether it funnelled any finance to them for use in the campaign. So does the AEC.
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How many Nat seats in the Coalition?
At some stage they will need to develop a set of common policiesâŚ
Queensland is LNP unitary, with the Nats holding the most seats usually.
WA Nats keep themselves at a distance and from memory arenât bound by a Coalition policy.
With the other data points Iâve dropped on this forum, naming my booth would make me very identifiable, and I hope to travel to the USA one day.
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ToP currently going at about $240 per first preference vote.
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LNP overall is ok but the liberals do have a real problem.
Nationals are as strong as they have ever been and the LNP in QLD lost a few seats but are still really strong and in power at the state level so will be fine.
But the liberals have basically no metro seats countrywide and couple with Victoria, SA and WA being basket cases at a state level is going to seriously impact them going forward. To swing back to the centre they need moderate city voices in leadership and caucus which they donât have, the three current leadership contenders being Taylor, Tehan and Let are all rural seats and could easily be National seats. How are they going to moderate when they have nobody to push it and their media cheerleaders and grass root members are further right than the party.
Equally important is the ground game, across all of Melbourne they have so few federal or state MPâs, the lack of MPâs, offices, staff and vibrant local parties makes it very difficult to attract talent and for the talent to get experience or advise from existing offices/MPâs. Thereâs an entire generation of 20 something Liberal potential candidates that havenât been able to cut there teeth for an existing MP and learn the ropes.
They canât win next time federally and are pushing it to win in the state election. They are not a viable opposition, the longer that goes on the harder to turn it around will be. The conservative and rural portion of the party will be fine but the metro liberal component is close to dead.
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Wong (the ALP one, not Cliveâs punish doll) pointed out that they have almost entirely lost middle Australia. As for young libs youâd hope theyâve looked at the likes of Bruce Lehrmann and realised they might be the bad guys finally, he was the gruesome sum of Young Lib culture to date.
We may end up with a grouping of nutty right wing, religious or otherwise, parties spilling preferences to each other like a nasty rash, and if the climate is febrile enough a coalition of them in hung power.
You have to hope for sane independents to sprout everywhere, and for calmer times ahead. Climate change, resource wars, new pandemics, MAGAâŚhmmm.
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#a few moments later
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Hahaha there you go. LOL
John howard invented middle class welfare, all other governments that have followed have to maintain the greed. Howard was is and always will be the c&t who ruined modern australia.
He tried to win camapigns with fear of foreigners, started middle class welfare after selling the family jewels and thenpatted himself and costello on their collective backs as economic genuises for selling stuff to get a huge surplus.
Absolute c&t of man
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Wow, wasnât expecting that.
Good riddance.
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Yeah fark the planet!
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As it is being shown Independents are just warming seats short term in most cases. Even Wilkie who is long term now is marginalised. Teals show promise but have they lived up to the expectations of those who voted for them, and they may have to spend there time defending their seat instead of doing the job. System is not designed for their benefit.
Labor has just successfully done this with Trump
Fixed
I think thatâs Sophie Mirabella. After a second rejection, I think husband Greg stood this time. I assume Helen Haines romped it in for Indi.
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