AFL fixture analysis, hardest to easiest draw 2025 | Herald Sun
Josh Barnes
We are past the halfway point of this home-and-away season, so the power of the 2025 fixture can be fully revealed. And it’s grim reading for some footy fans.
As this season has gone on, Essendon has moved from unlucky to dead stiff.
And through an analysis on travel distance, opponent injury luck and draw difficulty, the Bombers have emerged as a big loser.
Hit by injuries as hard as any side, Essendon has had no luck going the other way.
So far this year, opponents have entered games against the Bombers with an average of 6.1 players out injured, the lowest number in the league.
Basically, that means the Bombers have been playing against sides closer to full strength than any other team.
In tallying up travel time, only Hawthorn will spend more time in the air than Essendon among Victorian sides, as they fly for over 9500km this year.
And a fixture that includes only one double-up meeting with a side among the bottom eight on the ladder means Essendon has the third-hardest fixture this season, as the ladder stands now.
Of course, the Bombers aren’t the only big loser this year.
Brisbane has the hardest draw of all and West Coast travels the furthest.
Among the winners are Geelong, GWS and Collingwood.
With 14 rounds of hindsight, this is who was really screwed by the fixture, and who has had it best.
FOOTY’S BIGGEST LOSERS
OPPOSITION INJURY LADDER
Team – Opponent games missed (Avg. per game)
Essendon – 79 (6.1)
Sydney – 80 (6.2)
Richmond- 82 (6.3)
Collingwood – 86 (6.6)
Gold Coast – 86 (7.2)
Port Adelaide – 86 (6.6)
St Kilda – 87 (6.7)
West Coast – 87 (6.2)
North Melbourne – 88 (6.8)
Western Bulldogs – 88 (6.8)
Fremantle – 92 (7.1)
Melbourne – 95 (6.8)
Carlton – 96 (7.4)
Geelong – 98 (7)
Adelaide – 103 (7.4)
Hawthorn – 105 (7.5)
Brisbane – 110 (7.9)
GWS Giants – 110 (7.9)
TRAVEL TIME
Team – KMs flown to games – No. of interstate trips
Richmond – 6666 – 6
Geelong – 6802 – 6
North Melbourne – 7520 – 9
Collingwood – 7649 – 6
Carlton – 8075 – 6
Western Bulldogs – 9043 – 6
Melbourne – 9208 – 7
St Kilda – 8652 – 6
Essendon – 9505 – 6
Port Adelaide – 9483 – 10
Hawthorn – 11,061 – 10
GWS Giants – 10,363 – 14
Sydney – 11,398 – 11
Adelaide – 11,455 – 10
Brisbane Lions – 16,617 – 11
Gold Coast – 17,060 – 12
Fremantle – 19,296 – 10
West Coast – 25,637 – 10
We got rated as 3rd hardest
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Win: It’s been a tough fixture for the Bombers, one positive came early, when Essendon only travelled twice in the first 11 rounds, which included Gather Round.
Loss: Where to start. Essendon has had the worst opposition injury luck of all teams, with an average of 6.1 players each week on the injury list of the teams they have played. A tough break for a team that has been smashed by injuries themselves.
Quirk: And some more bad news. Of Victorian sides, only Hawthorn will travel more kilometres to games than the Bombers this year, and the Hawks play four ‘home’ games in Launceston, which inflates their number.