COVID-19 Round 14 - tiering into the abyss

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Dan saying NSW border a lockout, not a lockdown, would do the same at other borders in same circumstances.

More on Dervish Dan who, belying the name Iā€™ve just given him, does not tend to spin on the topic -

ā€œWell I stand by the national plan (on vaccine targets) that we had quite a bit to deal with writing and drafting. We made a very significant effort to be an active part of that process, and actually weā€™ve been commissioned to do some further work together with Tasmania and the Northern Territory around vaccine passports and what being vaccinated means for your freedom and what not being vaccinated might mean from a rules point of view , as we look to the future.ā€

He continued:

ā€œItā€™s really tough to be, you know, talking to people about how they must get vaccinated and all the consequences of not getting vaccinated when there isnā€™t enough supply. That is going to shift and then supply will no longer be a barrier. In other words, everyone will have been able to participate in that Commonwealth vaccine program.ā€

And then:

ā€œWhen we get to 80% then the rules change, the game changes. Itā€™s a very different set of circumstances, itā€™s a different challenge. But we wonā€™t stop at 80. We want to go as high as we possibly can because to be unvaccinated once we open up will be a really dangerous place to be. Look at Florida. Look at Texas. Look at so many parts of the world where there is a second pandemic, a third, fourth, fifth wave amongst the unvaccinated and they are getting terribly, terribly ill. That means we want to work very hard to get as many people vaccinated as possible because delta spreads fast. And no one wants to get delta.

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After 1 hour.3O mins , Vic presser wraps up after journos say no more Qs

  • might explain different approaches by journos at Vic and NSW pressers - at Vic, if journo not satisfied with answer to Q, can ask same Q over and over again.
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This is terrible news. I have a very bad feeling about how this will goā€¦

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Also Doherty said they used a simplified model that assumed even spread of vaccinated people. We know this isnā€™t the case in real life, and many of the current woes in US are due to pockets or regions of lower vaccination.

My suspicion is that Doherty explained all this in their very lengthy explanation the other day, but all the government and most people heard was 70%, 80% - back to normal.

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Casey Briggs bringing balance to NSW and Vic Covid cases - in his comparisons, says not convinced that Vics have this under control

Yep, big time. Leave out the bitsā€¦

McVernon made sure she got it on the transcript record, knowing it was annoying the hell out of the PM at the presser, her price for agreeing to presenting at presser.

It irks me that the deaths are an afterthought.

Maybe you need to be in NSW to get the infoā€¦
But here is the info on the two deathsā€¦

Sadly, NSW Health has been notified of the deaths of two people who had COVID-19.
A man in his 90s from Newcastle died at RFBI Hawkins Masonic Retirement Village in Edgeworth. He acquired his infection recently as part of the outbreak at the facility linked to a COVID positive staff member.
A woman in her 40s died at home in Southwest Sydney. She was a close contact of another confirmed case.
NSW Health extends its deepest sympathies to the families and friends of these patients.

and thereā€™s this

anti-vaxxer

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image

actually, theyā€™re not ( still bad)

1,862 close contacts. :grimacing:

Stay safe @Heffsgirl hope you and your family are doing okay today.

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To meā€¦
It looks like they were asked to work within certain parameters.
Or they were asked for advice, the answers werenā€™t the desired outcome, so weā€™re asked to look at something else.

As mentionedā€¦
80% of eligible is incorrect. It should be entire population.
Itā€™ll need to be remodelled because NSW wonā€™t be Covid 0 at 70%. So they are going to be isolated from other states.
Overseas travellers is an issue, but thatā€™s a little further down the track. It wonā€™t be free travel at 80%. Weā€™ll still have some form of quarantine and caps on arrival.

I think people are thinking that 80% brings everything back to normal. Itā€™s not quite that way. There are two more phases after that with no measures at the moment.
And thatā€™s fair enough, because itā€™s too hard to predict that far ahead.

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Iā€™m allfor giving advantages to the vaccinated, (once every one has had a chance to get vaccinated). Iā€™m joining the freedom marches at that point.

ā€¦which is exactly what I understood was the line pushed by the Premier and CHO at the press conference. It is not under control, still work to do.

From ABC live stream:

Daniel Andrews says health authorities are concerned over four new cases which have not been linked to a known cluster.
Victoriaā€™s Chief Health Officer Professor Brett Sutton says health authorities are exploring every option as to how the four mystery cases acquired the virus.
He said testing was the best way to track the virus and urged people with mild symptoms to get tested.

Sometimes Casey Briggs is the ABC correspondent for stating the bleeding obviousā€¦

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Thanks mate. Itā€™s all happening north of us, letā€™s see if it crosses Lake Burley Griffin.

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Its modelling. It will be based around certain parameters and assumptions, some of which may not hold up, and if circumstances change then the starting point / initial conditions can be wrong throwing the hole thing out.

What matters is the policies that are placed over the top - they need to be aware of what can go wrong relying on the modelling too strongly. Unfortunately I think the modelling will get twisted by those creating policy (i.e. politicians) to fit their narrative, with the Doherty modelling being a convenient fall guy when the policies turn out to be flawed.

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Shut the bridges! Crocs in the lake! Blow up the dam wall and turn the eastern end back into a swamp!

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