Sorry, I meant the next stage. < 14 isn’t it?
What would the reaction be if Dan came out and said “the numbers aren’t between 30 and 50 so have another two weeks of stage 4”?
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This Sunday is 30 to 50 14-day daily new metro case average. We hit that.
Late October is <5 14-day daily new case average. We’ll get very close if not match it or beat it.
Late October is also <5 14-day total unknown infections. That’s tough, but it’s tracking well.
Late November is 0 14-day total new infections. Straight line trent is we make it. I have doubts. NSW aren’t operating on straight line trend. They are bouncing between lower ranges.
Covid Normal has no timeline attached to it. 0 total cases in the last 28 days and 0 total active cases in the last 28 days.
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Good luck in your new career outside of politics?
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This is the problem. No new cases for a month and no active cases is not Covid normal… that’s simply not attainable.
He’s not going to do that.
Saturday night they’ll decide to move to the next stage.
And as for moving to the next step now…
Four days of the current stage is going to be more valuable in numbers than four days of the next one. Getting a head start on the next stage is very important, because it means if we have small spikes, we have a bit of a buffer in there.
I don’t blame them for being cautious.
It shows they have learned from previous mistakes.
I just hope they stay vigilant.
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It was a bit of a joke that we’ve done too well so we’re now not within the 30-50 range. Not very funny, granted.
I agree with your call for caution
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Here’s a small start for you (I needed to do this for work anyway - I’ll post the raw plot without the corporate branding all over it!):
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That’s a great graph.
Very clear to understand.
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You keep saying this, and you might well end up being right, but I don’t know how you can say it with such confidence.
Perfect conditions.
Hot, ventilated and not a lot of air conditioning.
Yeah.
I know.
It’s pie in the sky stuff.
But I think it’s there for what Queensland have now. 25k at sporting events, etc. Gyms should be in the November step (if they aren’t already).
I think they got to the November step then thought, ‘how the fark do we get to larger crowds, etc’. The theory is, if they meet the November step, it should take 2 weeks to reach the Covid Normal step. But the active cases total will lag quite a bit. And we’ll have hotel quarantine by then too.
I think the Covid Normal will be greatly re worked by the end of next month.
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The difficulty is finding somewhere in the world that has done that without restricting movement to the point we’re in lockdown.
South Korea maybe? I haven’t looked at overseas stuff for a while.
Sydney haven’t been able to do it.
Queensland are on their way.
New Zealand are still getting their cases.
We’re going to have state borders open. Whether we like it or not.
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I just hope people realise that every time they loudly proclaim their political views, they contribute toward polarisation, which leads to nothing good. I can understand it in countries where citizens are actually being oppressed.
In our country, even if my small business fails, and I lose all my assets and enter bankruptcy, my debts get wiped, and my government pays my medical bills and keeps a roof over my head, regardless of which political party is in power at the time. There are many people who wish they had it this good.
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Their Covid normal is basically eradication. And nobody has done that once the virus has become established.
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I’d argue that the virus hasn’t been around for long enough for there to be a precedent. I’m not saying it’s definitely achievable, I just think that you can’t rule it out.
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Don’t worry, I thought about that as well, “damm you guys, you can’t go to step 2 because the caseload is too low”
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There’s never going to be 100% compliance. There isn’t with any law. It’s naive to expect it.
So long as most people are complying then we minimise the risk. But when most people are complying they’re not visible, so we end up with a bit of confirmation bias where the very, very small minority we see not complying makes us think it’s widespread and putting the population at risk.
I live in a medium-density part of Melbourne with a fair bit of parkland close by that I get to regularly. I reckon I’ve seen maybe half a dozen instances in the last month of non-compliance. Few enough to make me think the ones I’ve seen probably had a good reason (eg: no mask because of medical conditions or something like that).
Even then I’m probably having a bit of confirmation bias myself, in that I’m likely missing plenty of instances of non-compliance in my short-range travels because I’m not looking out for them.
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And I think the reality they either change the criteria from step 3 to step 4 to allow a small dribble of cases, or we have a step 3 1/2 that allows, say 10 people to meet inside that aren’t designated bubble.
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