Delistings and List Regeneration

Football Discussion Trade week Duursma head in
41

Is there any value in this moving someone from the main list to the rookie list? Haven’t we tried it three or four times now and it’s failed every time?

I don’t see the point, in my view rookie list should be turned over semi-regularly to unearth something, not to park people who haven’t cut it whilst on the main list.

42
Baguley, Mark - 2015 - 3 year contract Bellchambers, Tom - 2015 - trade Browne, Alex - 2015 - rookie list Carlisle, Jake - 2015 - trade Chapman, Paul - 2015 - retire Dalgleish, Lauchlan - 2015 - 2 year contract Daniher, Joe - 2015 - 4 year contract Dempsey, Courtenay - 2015 - delist Fantasia, Orazio - 2015 - 2 year contact Fletcher, Dustin - 2015 - 1 MORE YEAR Gwilt, James - 2015 - delist Hams, Will - 2015 - 3 year contract Kavanagh, Elliott - 2015 - 2 year contract Melksham, Jake - 2015 - trade O'Brien, Nick - 2015 - delist Pears, Tayte - 2015 - delist Stanton, Brent - 2015 - 2 year contract Winderlich, Jason - 2015 - retire

2 retirements
3 trades
1 rookie list
4 delistings
8 players to be signed

I just cannot understand the fascination with trading Carlisle. We must put all our efforts into retaining him. I dont doubt this will take considerable effort.

43
I'm brutal, but I think we criminally overate our list, the club, and blitz

The start reality is that a lot of that list have either not shown or are yet to show, that they are capable of playing AFL football. If a player has been on the list 3 years or more, and has yet to show they can even make the grade, they sure as ■■■■ are not going to be anything more than middling players at best. We hang on to injury prone players far to long.

Going into next season we need 30 guys who we know are capable of playing AFL football to a moderate level or higher, and the next 8-10 list spots are for development for guys that we hope to usurp the bottom 10 of that 30

Baguley, Mark - 2015 - sign 2 year
Bellchambers, Tom - 2015 - offer up for trade if no takers, offer 1 year at only moderate salary. He is a RF anyway this year
Browne, Alex - 2015 - Delist. Shows signs, but is not durable and still doesnt use it very well.
Carlisle, Jake - 2015 - sign 2 year
Chapman, Paul - 2015 - retire, and get him in to coach our forwards
Dalgleish, Lauchlan - 2015 - Unless he has forced his way into the seniors by the last 4 rounds, delist, another non durable guy
Daniher, Joe - 2015 - 3 year deal
Dempsey, Courtenay - 2015 - Same as Bellchambers, offer up for trade or offer 1 year deal.
Fantasia, Orazio - 2015- Resign on 2 years
Fletcher, Dustin - 2015 - Retire - and straight into the coaching panel.
Gwilt, James - 2015 - Delist
Hams, Will - 2015 - Sign on 2 year deal
Kavanagh, Elliott - 2015 - Delist - not up to it.
Melksham, Jake - 2015 - Sign on 2 year deal, but make it performance based.
O’Brien, Nick - 2015 - Delist
Pears, Tayte - 2015 - Delist
Stanton, Brent - 2015 - Sign on 1 year (over 30 that should be the rule)
Winderlich, Jason - 2015 - Retire

Stienberg - Delist
Aylett - Take up second year of rookie deal

So thats 3 retirees, 6 delistings, and 2 possible trades.

agressivly trade with picks and players

Upgrade Smack take 5 picks into the draft. Bring in 2 Free agents, and another rookie.

I cant say this enough, if you have been on the list for 3 years or more, and cant get into the senior team, you are not good enough. Love em or hate them, TBC, Dempsey, Stanton, and Melksham are at least capable AFL footballers. Stanton is best 22, everyone here who doesnt think that is a ■■■■■■■■. The other 3 are good depth. Which you need.

We need to do a restructure of our list management team also

I agree with the majority of this. The only problem I have is making all the changes in one year. I can’t see us getting enough talent at the back end of the draft to make it worth delisting the last couple of players.

I’d rather have 6 “not talented enough 18 or 19 year old who could develop” types than 6 “22-23 year old who hasn’t shown anything” types as the last 6 players on our list.

I’d be interested @benfti who you think we could or should pick up as free agents?

44

Bellchambers can occasionally take a great pack mark but that’s about the extent of his valuable skills. He’s not worth anywhere near as much as he was hoping he would get. Hopefully now with the injury other clubs are scared off and we re-sign him for peanuts.

45
Bellcho right now is near rock bottom value..

Him deciding to hold off contract talks so he could get his form up and increase his value his backfired in the worst possible way for him and his manager.

46

I did write that before the injury news came out…

47

Bellcho right now is near rock bottom value…

48

Would be interesting what you’d get more for. Free agency compo for Tbell, Stants and Dempsey leaving in one year or the salary cap + player packages for picks.

49

A huge huge element comes down to a valuation of our list at year end, and how far off it they are. If it is possible to become competitors with only a few changes, fine, do it. But what if we’re realistically 4+ years away? If there is a view we just can’t replace the reduced output of Watson/Goddard/Stanton/Cooney/Chapman/Winders/Fletch ageing, Ryder leaving, Dempsey/Hibberd/Belly’s lost form, and none of Hurley/Carlisle standing up in the F50 with kids/trades coming through? Given we don’t just need to replace that - we have to improve on that to get a premiership.

There may be a valid view that this team isn’t good enough. I’m not convinced yet, but we’ll see how we track to the year end. There is a little bit of a feeling of 2004 and a changing of the guard. That year several perennial finalists fell out of the eight, and Geelong/St Kilda started their charge. GWS are looking to make finals, Bulldogs are on the charge, Geelong, Port have fallen out. But we’re nowhere.

So if we are out for the count for 4+ years, we should really do a deep cleanout. From the tanking thread I wrote as options to do a deep rebuild:

  1. Wherever we have older players on the fringe of the best 22, trade or delist. To give youngsters opportunity. So Dempsey, Howlett, Gwilt should all go as they don't fit the age profile to be playing in the next GF.
  2. If we can move on senior players to clubs which might give them success, and us something back, do it. Especially if by using our salary cap we can get a good trade. So like Lake to Hawthorn - win, win, win. I'm thinking Stanton, Bags, Hibberd, maybe even Jobe. Guys who I would love to see have a premiership medal and if they can't do it for us, having given everything, and we got good value, let them go. Obviously a balance must be made as you need good seniors to guide the youngsters, so you wouldn't trade them all out. And only if they wanted to do it - if they want to stay here without success, fine. But consider it. Goddard and Cooney might also be considered tradeable. I would probably wait on Bags/Hibberd until next year (if ever), as I like the idea of the backline being stable for a little while.
  3. Look hard at the mid-age tier of Myers, Hocking, Zaha and Melksham. Decide if they are up to it, what they are worth. Ideally, this group would be still around to be the senior statesman and the non-champion core of the next push. But if any won't make it, maybe trade now while they have currency.
  4. If we have a surplus anywhere, trade out. Yes, I'm looking at the Carlisle/Hooker/Hurley dilemma. We don't need 3 tall KP backs. If there is a decision none are good enough as forwards (and I have personally disagreed with that on Carlisle) then one of the talls should go. Why have a best in the league #3 tall defender when instead you could have Stein and two good draft picks? Having a great #3 tall back is just not valuable enough to do it.
  5. I would probably let Belly go, as trading for rucks when you're closer to the window is quite common. Trade Belly now, use Smack/Giles and recruit some youngsters, and recognise we'll lose the ruck for a few years.
  6. Be more aggressive with who gets cut. Players like Kommer can't get 3 year deals. Pears should have been on the rookie list two years ago. If you're keeping a player like NOB around, give them some games.
  7. All the moves above will give a lot of salary cap space. Use that spare salary cap by either packaging it with players traded for better deals or target FA's who are in the 26 age zone and good. They should still be around for a premiership tilt. So like a Scot Selwood
  8. Target GWS. A number of teams have done brilliantly with deals for guys on their fringe who can't get games. Hopefully Edwards is such a steal for us. If we get picks from the above moves, look hard at giving them to GWS (or the players themselves if they want them) for youngsters. What would they give for Carlisle who fits their age bracket and needs?
  9. Don't be afraid to cut hard, and then give a group of mature aged players 1 year deals to ease the transition from this year to next. Nobody's tried it, let's do a mature age player PSD fight off! :)

In this scenario, the target should be to keep the core of the team who are 26/27 and under, and be trying to get value elsewhere. If we can keep Zaha, Myers, Hocking, Melksham, Heppell, Hooker, Hurley, JD, Gleeson, Colyer, Carlisle, Zerrett, then that gives us a pretty solid core, especially if other youngsters on the list (Laverde, Langford, McKenna, Dalgiesh, Jerrett, Kav, Edwards, Fantasia, Ashby) can develop as we hope. You probably also try to transition over 2 years so that you don’t go too deep in one draft (unless you have very good picks).

If we did that, you might end up playing a team like this next year:

FB: Baguley Hooker Steinberg/Fletch
HB: Hibberd Hurley Gleeson/Ashby/Dalgiesh
Mid: Zaha Heppell Colyer
Onb: Giles Myers Hocking
HF: Zerrett Smack McKenna/Fantasia
FF: Edwards/Laverde JD Langford/Ambrose/Kommer

Emg: two of Stanton/Watson/Goddard/Cooney, Melksham, Kav/NOB/Jerrett

Underlined players would probably be the only automatic first 22 players. Now, would that team win too many games now? No. But most players would be under 26, and we would probably have a good crack at a lot of games. Big weakness in tall forwards (duh), ruck (duh), and depending on how the youngsters develop the small forwards/midfield. But defence should still be solid, you can build around that. So blow outs should be minimised.

I suspect we would probably end up with somewhere in the range of 3 first round and 4 second round picks in that scenario. I’m assuming Belly + Carlisle get 1st round picks, Howlett gets a 2nd rounder, and between two of Watson/Stanton/Goddard/Cooney + salary cap + our 3rd round pick + Dempsey we get a further 2 2nd round picks. Obviously we start with a 1st and 2nd rounder already. Possibly depending on Carlisle’s price we’d have another first or 2nd rounder as well. You would probably try and trade some of those picks for upgrades given both our need for blue chip players and our recent success with later picks (say to use on a Brown or Tippa maybe).

So out Gwilt, Belly, Carlisle, Dempsey, Winders, Howlett, Chapman, Pears, 2 of Watson/Stanton/Goddard/Cooney, salary cap
In McKenna, Smack, a whole chunk of young talent (or traded players).
10 out, 3 promoted, 7 drafted in (maybe one/two used on late F/S selection, rest 1st & 2nd round picks) and 2-3 rookies drafted (depending on if Aylett is kept)
Targets would probably be another spare ruck (don’t spend big as you can trade for one later), 2-3 tall forwards, and smalls with pace and skills. No more back-flankers.

That would be extreme, but possibly doable. You would almost certainly end up with another good pick next year. It would be brutal, but if we’re not going to be contenders for 4+ years it should be done.

Edit: I would note with this approach that all the ‘young’ players get another year. So it’s 10 out, but all of Kav, NOB, Dal, Browne, Hams, Jerrett, Fanta, Stein, Kommer, Ashby etc get at least one more year (+ Fletch). So probably a second (mini) culling next year as well, when the draft is better.

50
Saying 'trade Bellchambers for picks' is kinda advocating a zero-sum strategy (at best) at this point. Giles is rotting in the 2s (whispers on here, dunno how accurate they are, are that the club reckons he's not up to it and he'll just play out his contract in the VFL then get dumped), McKernan is looking promising but seems to be more of a fwd/ruck than a full timer, and we have exactly zero other ruckmen on our list AT ALL unless we shift Daniher or Carlisle from their natural kpp spots.

Trade Bellchambers out, and we automatically have to spend a pick replacing him to even retain the understrength ruck division we have right now. And if we’re hoping to challenge with our current aging midfield, then we’ll have to spend a high pick to replace him with an AFL ready ruck, since they don’t come cheap.

‘Trade TBell’ is an easy slogan when he’s playing ■■■■, but unless you’re proposing how we actually replace the guy, then it’s really just a way to chuck a wobbly at a player indirectly, I reckon. If we trade bellchambers, who plays #1 ruck for us next year and how do we get that person on the list?

Tantrums are easy. Solutions are hard.


There’s almost always been a ruck or three (and generally guys who aren’t #1 in the pecking order, ergo generally cheaper) on the move.
Last year Giles (yeah, I know…), Stanley, Lowden, Ryder, Gorringe (didn’t end up moving).
Year before Derickx, McEvoy, Hampson, Mumford, Longer - and someone bizarrely gave something away for Trent West
Etc

I’m not anti TBC per se, but in terms of guys we could improve our drat position with, with minimal impact to us, he’d be the one. He’s also on big dollars, and as it stands he’s not doing much to justify those dollars.
We’re no chance to replace Carlisle, with anything close to his value. And I don’t think guys like Melks, Howlett or Dempsey would get us much in return.

If TBC out and (say) Gorringe in would bump us up from a 3rd or 4th rounder to a top 20 or 30 pick - and save a couple of hundred grand to add to the FA kitty - I’d do it.

51

Goldstein comes out of contract after 2016 season. Would have been interesting if it had been the end of this season.

I don’t suppose big Tom would sign a one year contract…

52
Saying 'trade Bellchambers for picks' is kinda advocating a zero-sum strategy (at best) at this point. Giles is rotting in the 2s (whispers on here, dunno how accurate they are, are that the club reckons he's not up to it and he'll just play out his contract in the VFL then get dumped), McKernan is looking promising but seems to be more of a fwd/ruck than a full timer, and we have exactly zero other ruckmen on our list AT ALL unless we shift Daniher or Carlisle from their natural kpp spots.

Trade Bellchambers out, and we automatically have to spend a pick replacing him to even retain the understrength ruck division we have right now. And if we’re hoping to challenge with our current aging midfield, then we’ll have to spend a high pick to replace him with an AFL ready ruck, since they don’t come cheap.

‘Trade TBell’ is an easy slogan when he’s playing ■■■■, but unless you’re proposing how we actually replace the guy, then it’s really just a way to chuck a wobbly at a player indirectly, I reckon. If we trade bellchambers, who plays #1 ruck for us next year and how do we get that person on the list?

Tantrums are easy. Solutions are hard.

What if we could get say Lycett in the process.

Letting TBell and Dempsey go might get us enough to pry him outta west coast. Giles is still there as a backup and we have Smack.

As I said it’s all very subjective at this point. Allot will depend on what we can get and what were offered for whoever.

Some to consider how they impact decision making

  • Two top 5 picks for Carlisle and you start thinking?
  • TBell walks for big $ and we get a after first pick selection
  • Lycett wants out and WC only want a third round selection
  • Looneyburger wants out and Lyons only want a second rounder
  • Danger wants to wear red and black (yeah I know rediculous)
  • Carlisle stays
  • what if nobody wants to go near us and we can’t attract any players.

It’s all dependent, but the thing about this trade period is we have to be open.

I don’t think we should throw the kitchen sink and go for picks, but if they do they really need to go all out. Dump everybody above 25 except the old stages and turn them into coaches on field.

53
Saying 'trade Bellchambers for picks' is kinda advocating a zero-sum strategy (at best) at this point. Giles is rotting in the 2s (whispers on here, dunno how accurate they are, are that the club reckons he's not up to it and he'll just play out his contract in the VFL then get dumped), McKernan is looking promising but seems to be more of a fwd/ruck than a full timer, and we have exactly zero other ruckmen on our list AT ALL unless we shift Daniher or Carlisle from their natural kpp spots.

Trade Bellchambers out, and we automatically have to spend a pick replacing him to even retain the understrength ruck division we have right now. And if we’re hoping to challenge with our current aging midfield, then we’ll have to spend a high pick to replace him with an AFL ready ruck, since they don’t come cheap.

‘Trade TBell’ is an easy slogan when he’s playing ■■■■, but unless you’re proposing how we actually replace the guy, then it’s really just a way to chuck a wobbly at a player indirectly, I reckon. If we trade bellchambers, who plays #1 ruck for us next year and how do we get that person on the list?

Tantrums are easy. Solutions are hard.

The best solution imo (and this absolutely has to be trialled a fair bit in the second half of the year) is to play smack and TBell together. TBell will be far better if he’s only rucking for about 60% of the game…hopefully he can return to his 2013 form when playing a similar amount of ruck time.

Then we just need to add one experienced ruck to replace Giles and get one late in the ND or in RD for development.

54
Allot depends on what we get for our trades.

Ship of Belly and Dempsey for a first and second rounder selections and we may have to start chopping to fit the new kids in.

Carlisle goes as well and we could be looking at a high pick draft.

Get squat for those guys or below what we expect and we could be struggling and the guys there may be netter than the guys we can get.

It’s all a bit subjective at this point for the the detail.

But for me, our focus should be to offload some guys for higher picks (Dempsey and Tbell). And try and keep Carlisle.

Bellchambers is a restricted FA and Dempsey is an unrestricted FA. If they both go, the compensation will be based on how much they get paid at the new clubs. Based of the 2015 form of both guys, I can’t see them getting mega offers elsewhere. Say Dempsey gets $250k and Bellchambers $500k, making it around $750k for them combined. That may get us a first round compo pick, it may not.

I can’t see it happening, but Stants is an unrestricted FA too and it could work out mutually beneficial for him to walk. I’m not a Stanton basher, but his outside role seems to be one of the easier ones to replace. Get some youth and speed into the team, get some form of compo and give him a chance at success elsewhere for a couple of years.

55

Saying ‘trade Bellchambers for picks’ is kinda advocating a zero-sum strategy (at best) at this point. Giles is rotting in the 2s (whispers on here, dunno how accurate they are, are that the club reckons he’s not up to it and he’ll just play out his contract in the VFL then get dumped), McKernan is looking promising but seems to be more of a fwd/ruck than a full timer, and we have exactly zero other ruckmen on our list AT ALL unless we shift Daniher or Carlisle from their natural kpp spots.

Trade Bellchambers out, and we automatically have to spend a pick replacing him to even retain the understrength ruck division we have right now. And if we’re hoping to challenge with our current aging midfield, then we’ll have to spend a high pick to replace him with an AFL ready ruck, since they don’t come cheap.

‘Trade TBell’ is an easy slogan when he’s playing ■■■■, but unless you’re proposing how we actually replace the guy, then it’s really just a way to chuck a wobbly at a player indirectly, I reckon. If we trade bellchambers, who plays #1 ruck for us next year and how do we get that person on the list?

Tantrums are easy. Solutions are hard.

56

Allot depends on what we get for our trades.

Ship of Belly and Dempsey for a first and second rounder selections and we may have to start chopping to fit the new kids in.

Carlisle goes as well and we could be looking at a high pick draft.

Get squat for those guys or below what we expect and we could be struggling and the guys there may be netter than the guys we can get.

It’s all a bit subjective at this point for the the detail.

But for me, our focus should be to offload some guys for higher picks (Dempsey and Tbell). And try and keep Carlisle.

57

#onemoreyear

58
I can't see why Fletcher would want to play on. Groin troubles + a team that is not a contender...

If the latter was a worry for him he’d have pulled the pin about 10 years sho…

59

I can’t see why Fletcher would want to play on. Groin troubles + a team that is not a contender…

60

Hear hear!