Delistings and List Regeneration

Football Discussion Trade week Duursma head in
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I’m not too worried about the ‘shallow draft’ stuff. There’s always value to be found in any draft if you look hard enough, and our record with late picks is decent.

If guys aren’t deemed good enough, then move them on regardless.

Without going through the whole list, I’d be looking at.

  • making a call one way or another on Steinberg. If he’s deemed up to playing at AFL level then upgrade him and Fark Gwilt off. If not, keep Gwilt for another year and bye bye Stein.

  • keeping two out of KAV, NO’B, Hams, Browne and Dalgleish. Let the rest of the year play out to decide which two.

So with Fletch, Chappy, Licha and Pears all gone and McKernan getting upgraded, that’s 6/7 changes plus whatever trades and FA play out.

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I honestly don't think the club needs to go bananas on trying to rebuild or shake things up. The list will have a lot of change regardless.

IMHO:

SIGN: Baguley, Mark - 2015
SIGN: Carlisle, Jake - 2015
SIGN: Daniher, Joe - 2015
SIGN: Fantasia, Orazio - 2015
SIGN: Melksham, Jake - 2015
SIGN: Stanton, Brent - 2015

HIS DECISION: Fletcher, Dustin - 2015

TRADE/CUT: Dempsey, Courtenay - 2015

WAIT: Bellchambers, Tom - 2015
WAIT: Browne, Alex - 2015
WAIT: Dalgleish, Lauchlan - 2015
WAIT: Gwilt, James - 2015
WAIT: Hams, Will - 2015
WAIT: Kavanagh, Elliott - 2015
WAIT: O’Brien, Nick - 2015

CUT: Chapman, Paul - 2015
CUT: Pears, Tayte - 2015
CUT: Winderlich, Jason - 2015

Hopefully Fletch is fit enough to go around in 2016. If he does, see ya Gwilt. If he retires, keep Gwilt. I’d probably upgrade Stein regardless.

What we really need, the most likely way to improve our fortunes, is for 3-4 of those kids play some games and show they’re worth keeping. Could really provide us with some impetus, change the mix, and really improve selection pressure. Conversely, if you haven’t cracked the 22, after 3-5 years on the list, laters.

If someone offers TBC a lot of moolah, I’m happy enough to see him go. We’d get either a first (~10) or second rounder (~high 20s) compo pick.

Dempsey is slowly tailing off. This year Gleeson’s ahead, as is Stanton off half back. Next year I wouldn’t be surprised if another couple go past him as well.

Agree with pretty much all that,

The wait list is very much about those showing who can be part of the future, I think Gwilt will probably stay If fletch retires. I hope we use the 12 month contracts for allot of those wait players, keep em hungry!

That leaves five slots, maybe six with TBell being shipped off. Might see 4 picks in the top 30 if we can do some trades with Dempsey and TBell compo. Maybe a trade in player and a rookie upgrade too.

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15. Courtenay Dempsey - Trade to Carlton

http://dempsey.isafreeagent.com

Hilarity aside, you do actually realise you can trade a guy who’s out of contract? See Chapman, Crameri, Cooney, Monfries. You just don’t tend to get as much for them.

Yeah, I know, but we’d end up with a pick in the 50s or something (51 for Monfries, 84 for Chapman), which I don’t think is the result people intend when they say “trade”.
To be pedantic: Crameri wasn’t a free agent which makes it a whole different situation, and Cooney was still under contract.

Not being a free agent doesn’t make it much different. Guys can still walk, they just go in the PSD, and the club they leave doesn’t get any compo. See Tippett, K.

You’re right, but I reckon a non free agent demanding a trade knocks trade value back about 10-15 picks. A free agent knocks it back 30+.
To be pedantic again: Adelaide were banned from receiving anything for Tippett in a trade as part of their sanctions for salary cap infringements.


I would’ve thought the other way around.

A “free agent” ie 8/10 years service leaving will garner you some compo.
An uncontracted, non- “free agent” won’t.
They’re both only going to go to a select few clubs who want them and can fit them in.
Surely you’re going to play hard ball more with the guy you’re getting something for regardless, and settle for a worse offer with the one you’d otherwise get nothing for?

Ie, you’re only going to trade a “free agent” if you’re getting a better offer than the compo pick (or for other reasons, ie messing with existing compo picks).
A guy who’ll walk to the PSD for nothing, well, any offer is better than nothing.

What would be the basis of your thinking it’d be the other way around?

My opinion is largely just based on what happens. Hunt for 75, Chapman for 84, Monfries for 51 compared to Crameri for 26, Mumford for 35. The former are junk picks, the latter are trades made under duress.

You’re right that if you know you’re getting compensation, that puts you in a stronger position. But the other side know that they can get the player for literally nothing. Monfries-esque situtations aside, why would they even sit down at the trade table?

I honestly don’t know why uncontracted players get more (even if it’s less than they’re worth) because you’re right about losing them for nothing. Theoretically going to the PSD runs the risk of being drafted by a different team, but the evidence is that teams simply will not pick players who don’t want to go there. Perhaps clubs are worried about losing players the same way? Maybe they’re just not as ruthless towards each other as I assume? Maybe if the PSD was routinely full of decent quality established AFL players people would start picking them regardless? The fact is that uncontracted players get traded for first and second round picks all the time, while pick 51 is the highest a free agent has garnered (and that was in a situation where Port gained pick 29 by doing so).

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Btw I find the AFL naming guys who were already free “free agents” if they fit under certain circumstances an interesting bit of double-speak.

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15. Courtenay Dempsey - Trade to Carlton

http://dempsey.isafreeagent.com

Hilarity aside, you do actually realise you can trade a guy who’s out of contract? See Chapman, Crameri, Cooney, Monfries. You just don’t tend to get as much for them.

Yeah, I know, but we’d end up with a pick in the 50s or something (51 for Monfries, 84 for Chapman), which I don’t think is the result people intend when they say “trade”.
To be pedantic: Crameri wasn’t a free agent which makes it a whole different situation, and Cooney was still under contract.

Not being a free agent doesn’t make it much different. Guys can still walk, they just go in the PSD, and the club they leave doesn’t get any compo. See Tippett, K.

You’re right, but I reckon a non free agent demanding a trade knocks trade value back about 10-15 picks. A free agent knocks it back 30+.
To be pedantic again: Adelaide were banned from receiving anything for Tippett in a trade as part of their sanctions for salary cap infringements.


I would’ve thought the other way around.

A “free agent” ie 8/10 years service leaving will garner you some compo.
An uncontracted, non- “free agent” won’t.
They’re both only going to go to a select few clubs who want them and can fit them in.
Surely you’re going to play hard ball more with the guy you’re getting something for regardless, and settle for a worse offer with the one you’d otherwise get nothing for?

Ie, you’re only going to trade a “free agent” if you’re getting a better offer than the compo pick (or for other reasons, ie messing with existing compo picks).
A guy who’ll walk to the PSD for nothing, well, any offer is better than nothing.

What would be the basis of your thinking it’d be the other way around?

106
Melk has been solid this year. Not fantastic but definitely serviceable.

Looking through those posts and pick 51 wasn’t great for Monfries who has probably played every game that he has been available to play in since heading to Port.

Monfries was really just a free agent deal. Because we picked up Goddard we would have gotten no compensation so Gus and Port did the right thing by us in trading a pick.

Port would’ve lost compo pick/s as well, which is why they did it, not out of decency. I can’t remember who for - was it Chaplin?

107
Melk has been solid this year. Not fantastic but definitely serviceable.

Looking through those posts and pick 51 wasn’t great for Monfries who has probably played every game that he has been available to play in since heading to Port.

Monfries was really just a free agent deal. Because we picked up Goddard we would have gotten no compensation so Gus and Port did the right thing by us in trading a pick.

108

Essendon forwardline if we had of kept Crameri Monfries & Ryder

HF Edwards Crameri Monfries
F Tbell/Ryder Daniher Fantasia

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15. Courtenay Dempsey - Trade to Carlton

http://dempsey.isafreeagent.com

Hilarity aside, you do actually realise you can trade a guy who’s out of contract? See Chapman, Crameri, Cooney, Monfries. You just don’t tend to get as much for them.

Yeah, I know, but we’d end up with a pick in the 50s or something (51 for Monfries, 84 for Chapman), which I don’t think is the result people intend when they say “trade”.
To be pedantic: Crameri wasn’t a free agent which makes it a whole different situation, and Cooney was still under contract.

Not being a free agent doesn’t make it much different. Guys can still walk, they just go in the PSD, and the club they leave doesn’t get any compo. See Tippett, K.

You’re right, but I reckon a non free agent demanding a trade knocks trade value back about 10-15 picks. A free agent knocks it back 30+.
To be pedantic again: Adelaide were banned from receiving anything for Tippett in a trade as part of their sanctions for salary cap infringements.

110

Good interview with Adrian Dodoro on the EFC website.

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Good interview with Adrian Dodoro on the EFC website.

That it is.

Thankful that the club are trying to put a positive spin on our current onfield situation - especially on a bye week!

I did think Dodoro was quite candid - though, I would love for him to take some questions from the fans.

112
15. Courtenay Dempsey - Trade to Carlton

http://dempsey.isafreeagent.com

Hilarity aside, you do actually realise you can trade a guy who’s out of contract? See Chapman, Crameri, Cooney, Monfries. You just don’t tend to get as much for them.

Yeah, I know, but we’d end up with a pick in the 50s or something (51 for Monfries, 84 for Chapman), which I don’t think is the result people intend when they say “trade”.
To be pedantic: Crameri wasn’t a free agent which makes it a whole different situation, and Cooney was still under contract.

Not being a free agent doesn’t make it much different. Guys can still walk, they just go in the PSD, and the club they leave doesn’t get any compo. See Tippett, K.

113

I still have hope for Melksham.

114
I'm brutal, but I think we criminally overate our list, the club, and blitz

The start reality is that a lot of that list have either not shown or are yet to show, that they are capable of playing AFL football. If a player has been on the list 3 years or more, and has yet to show they can even make the grade, they sure as ■■■■ are not going to be anything more than middling players at best. We hang on to injury prone players far to long.

Going into next season we need 30 guys who we know are capable of playing AFL football to a moderate level or higher, and the next 8-10 list spots are for development for guys that we hope to usurp the bottom 10 of that 30

Baguley, Mark - 2015 - sign 2 year
Bellchambers, Tom - 2015 - offer up for trade if no takers, offer 1 year at only moderate salary. He is a RF anyway this year
Browne, Alex - 2015 - Delist. Shows signs, but is not durable and still doesnt use it very well.
Carlisle, Jake - 2015 - sign 2 year
Chapman, Paul - 2015 - retire, and get him in to coach our forwards
Dalgleish, Lauchlan - 2015 - Unless he has forced his way into the seniors by the last 4 rounds, delist, another non durable guy
Daniher, Joe - 2015 - 3 year deal
Dempsey, Courtenay - 2015 - Same as Bellchambers, offer up for trade or offer 1 year deal.
Fantasia, Orazio - 2015- Resign on 2 years
Fletcher, Dustin - 2015 - Retire - and straight into the coaching panel.
Gwilt, James - 2015 - Delist
Hams, Will - 2015 - Sign on 2 year deal
Kavanagh, Elliott - 2015 - Delist - not up to it.
Melksham, Jake - 2015 - Sign on 2 year deal, but make it performance based.
O’Brien, Nick - 2015 - Delist
Pears, Tayte - 2015 - Delist
Stanton, Brent - 2015 - Sign on 1 year (over 30 that should be the rule)
Winderlich, Jason - 2015 - Retire

Stienberg - Delist
Aylett - Take up second year of rookie deal

So thats 3 retirees, 6 delistings, and 2 possible trades.

agressivly trade with picks and players

Upgrade Smack take 5 picks into the draft. Bring in 2 Free agents, and another rookie.

I cant say this enough, if you have been on the list for 3 years or more, and cant get into the senior team, you are not good enough. Love em or hate them, TBC, Dempsey, Stanton, and Melksham are at least capable AFL footballers. Stanton is best 22, everyone here who doesnt think that is a ■■■■■■■■. The other 3 are good depth. Which you need.

We need to do a restructure of our list management team also

I agree with the majority of this. The only problem I have is making all the changes in one year. I can’t see us getting enough talent at the back end of the draft to make it worth delisting the last couple of players.

I’d rather have 6 “not talented enough 18 or 19 year old who could develop” types than 6 “22-23 year old who hasn’t shown anything” types as the last 6 players on our list.

I’d be interested @benfti who you think we could or should pick up as free agents?

I guess I haven’t written off Dalgliesh and Browne yet. Browne was a realistic chance of becoming best 22 before he went down with his ACL. Dalgliesh has the speed needed, just needs an injury free run at it. Neither are locks, but if they display good form over the rest of the year there’s a strong case to give them another year.

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In a supposedly weak draft, would it be worth bundling up our second pick and a player with currency (not suggesting who that might be, but Benfti suggests Dempsey or Bellchambers) to get a 21 or 22 year old with 50 or so games under his belt and who is a regular in his current team? I’d be looking for a guy who will be good enough to hold down a spot every week, and of course he’d have to be better than the player we trade. Don’t think this is too outlandish to get done.

116

Baguley, Mark - offer contract
Bellchambers, Tom - trade / delist
Browne, Alex - delist (rough call, but we need to stop gifting players spots on our list who are either injured too often or not good enough to make it)
Carlisle, Jake - offer contract / if not trade
Chapman, Paul - delist / retire
Dalgleish, Lauchlan - offer contract (must perform at VFL level to earn it though)
Daniher, Joe - offer contract
Dempsey, Courtenay - trade / delist
Fantasia, Orazio - offer contract
Fletcher, Dustin - offer contract
Gwilt, James - delist / retire
Hams, Will - delist (another tough call)
Kavanagh, Elliott - offer contract (if he gets consistent games and plays the way he did last week, he deserves it otherwise, he might look elsewhere)
Melksham, Jake - trade / offer contract
O’Brien, Nick - delist (I know he’s done well at VFL level, but he needs to get into our best 25 and earn a contract)
Pears, Tayte - delist
Stanton, Brent - trade (very tough call, but he might be one of the few with some trade value)
Winderlich, Jason - delist / retire

That’s 9 delistings with a few questionable (Fletch, Carlisle, Kav and Dalgliesh).
That’s probably more than needed to be active in free agency and target a ruck through trade.

Obviously, if the saga is still floating, I’m not sure we’d get any value for our players. Maybe we just take whatever draft picks we can get or sign them to a one year contract?

List manager is going to have a tough time in our circumstances.

117

One of the most insightful things Hirdy has said in his press conferences is that statistically if you play more than 7 kids under 50 games you lose. That is their mindset when picking a team. It will be the mindset when crafting a list.

To field 15 experienced players a week you need around 20-25 on the list. We currently have 24.

The experienced players that there is talk of being traded, delisted or retiring are:
Fletch
Winderlich
Pears
Chapman
Bellchambers
Carlisle
Dempsey
Melksham

Clearly this list won’t all go as it would leave only 16 50+ gamers.

As for the kids, none will hit the 50 mark this year, though these guys will probably get to around 40-45 games each before the year is out.
Zerrett,
Daniher
SMACK
Ambrose

So what does that mean? Well the experienced players that don’t retire are largely going to be safe. If there are any trading of senior blokes, expect a 50+ game player in return.

As for the rookie list, Steinberg should get an upgrade. Aylett will likely finish his AFL career. Long will go around again. Smack will get the upgrade. McKenna will play senior level next year, but not round 1 so will stay on the rookie list.

Ideally we will take at least 3 early picks. With 3 retirements and 2 promotions it means we need to clear at least 2 more spots. If we can bring in some decent picks through trading, the chances are kids will get cut. If we finish the trade period with only 2-3 decent picks, there would be a slim chance to improve by delisting a NO’B or Hams to make way for a round 5 pick.

Add in the manipulations from managers, stalled contract negotiations, late season changes in form, changes in game style and tactics… all I can say is I’m really glad I’m not Dodoro.

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I honestly don’t think the club needs to go bananas on trying to rebuild or shake things up. The list will have a lot of change regardless.

IMHO:

SIGN: Baguley, Mark - 2015
SIGN: Carlisle, Jake - 2015
SIGN: Daniher, Joe - 2015
SIGN: Fantasia, Orazio - 2015
SIGN: Melksham, Jake - 2015
SIGN: Stanton, Brent - 2015

HIS DECISION: Fletcher, Dustin - 2015

TRADE/CUT: Dempsey, Courtenay - 2015

WAIT: Bellchambers, Tom - 2015
WAIT: Browne, Alex - 2015
WAIT: Dalgleish, Lauchlan - 2015
WAIT: Gwilt, James - 2015
WAIT: Hams, Will - 2015
WAIT: Kavanagh, Elliott - 2015
WAIT: O’Brien, Nick - 2015

CUT: Chapman, Paul - 2015
CUT: Pears, Tayte - 2015
CUT: Winderlich, Jason - 2015

Hopefully Fletch is fit enough to go around in 2016. If he does, see ya Gwilt. If he retires, keep Gwilt. I’d probably upgrade Stein regardless.

What we really need, the most likely way to improve our fortunes, is for 3-4 of those kids play some games and show they’re worth keeping. Could really provide us with some impetus, change the mix, and really improve selection pressure. Conversely, if you haven’t cracked the 22, after 3-5 years on the list, laters.

If someone offers TBC a lot of moolah, I’m happy enough to see him go. We’d get either a first (~10) or second rounder (~high 20s) compo pick.

Dempsey is slowly tailing off. This year Gleeson’s ahead, as is Stanton off half back. Next year I wouldn’t be surprised if another couple go past him as well.

119

Baguley, Mark - offer contract
Bellchambers, Tom - lets see how he plays out year. i would like to keep, but he is a free agent so if he gets better offer may go. and if he did wouldnt pickup free agent as would affect compo, unless it was a gun like scott selwood or dangerfield.
Browne, Alex - Too early to call need some games in seniors to see if worth another spot. but given what hes been through and age profie i think we would offer another contract
Carlisle, Jake - offer contract
Chapman, Paul - delist / retire
Dalgleish, Lauchlan - offer contract
Daniher, Joe - offer contract
Dempsey, Courtenay - trade / new contract
Fantasia, Orazio - offer contract
Fletcher, Dustin - Retire / new contract
Gwilt, James - delist/ as would upgrade Steinberg.
Hams, Will - delist and Rookie
Kavanagh, Elliott - offer contract / he may look to be traded if gets put back to magoos
Melksham, Jake - offer contract / offer for trade, not sure what hes worth maybe second round, probably worth more to keep
O’Brien, Nick - Needs games in the ones before we decide to delist
Pears, Tayte - looks like careers over, hope they try him in defence again Trade / delist might get another shot at Blues or Fremantle or GWS.
Stanton, Brent - offer new contract
Winderlich, Jason - retire

think its too early to make calls on a lot for the moment. They need games in the seniors to see if worth holding on too - Browne, Dalgleish, Obrien, Kavanagh,

Free agency - Bellchambers?
Chappy/winders/Gwilt + Fletcher? Retire.
Hams Delisted
Dempsey/Melksham/Pears offered for trade say 2 go.
If no offers would Delist Pears.

say 5-10 (10 worst case)main list changes

Promote
Mckernan
Steinberg

Rookie
Hams

3-7 picks in draft.
1 rookie pick

think Mckenna may get elevated as well if he continues his form.
need to trade for or draft young ruckman & Key tall to develop.

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Steinberg is a tricky one. Don’t know him but you have to love his mettle. He is the club factor but emotion has no role in surgery.