Sure.
But the mods also create threads to keep discussions on topic. Understanding that and following it uses basic intelligence and is basic manners.
2 Likes
The List Manager: Jon Ralph runs the rule over Essendonâs current group, its future and everything in between
Essendon have had a big off-season and thereâs still more to play out on draft night. JON RALPH looks at the Donsâ list holes, cap space, trade bait, free agent target, flag window and more.
Essendon spent the final seven weeks of the season doing everything in its power to erase the gains of its first 17 weeks.
At that stage the club was in fifth position despite a pair of last-gasp losses to Port Adelaide with vast improvement from Nic Martin, Sam Durham, Mason Redman, Kyle Langford and Jye Menzie.
And yet in those final seven weeks with 16 injuries the only victories came against the Roos and West Coast amid a series of crushing defeats â Geelong (77 points), the Dogs (41 points), GWS (126 points) and Collingwood (70 points).
For Essendon to beg for its supporters patience â again â then watch GWS rebuild itself within a season with a new game plan and new young stars was especially galling.
So Essendon remains one of footyâs most frustrating sides with a 7000-day finals winning drought and so much ground to make up on footyâs contenders.
But the fact remains Essendon did make significant progress in Brad Scottâs first year with a heap of exciting kids stockpiled and some positive moves in the free agency space.
If the five or six improvers next year are Elijah Tsatas, Ben Hobbs, Archie Perkins, Zach Reid, Harrison Jones and Nik Cox then the Dons will truly be going places.
TRADE PERIOD
Rating: 8/10
Letâs put on the record that Jade Gresham is being paid a vast amount of money ($700,000 plus) for a goal-a-game mid-forward with below-average kicking.
Yet if the proof will be in the pudding on Greshamâs free agency contract, the rest of the clubâs trade period transitions were a riotous success.
As a net result from the trade period the Dons gave up Brandon Zerk-Thatcher and turned him into Xavier Duursma, Gresham and full back Ben McKay.
That is the beauty of free agency, where cap space is as valuable a commodity as first-round picks.
McKay arrives as the big bullocking full back the Dons so desperately need, giving Reid time to justify the lofty wraps placed on the 202cm defender.
Goldstein is at worst insurance who will teach the impressive Nick Bryan some new tricks and more likely a valuable second ruck given Scott prefers to play a twin ruck combo.
LIST HOLES
AFL games are won from the midfield.
The biggest question for the Dons is whether a midfield unit so talented on paper can actually beat up on rivals while also racking up big possession tallies.
Zach Merrett does both â gets it 30 times and cuts his opponents to ribbons with elite disposals.
Brad Scott will hope along with the accumulators â Darcy Parish, Jye Caldwell, Will Setterfield â he can also find some out-and-out weapons.
Ben Hobbs made solid gains in year two with hopes inside Essendon he can be a Luke Parker type â a rugged contested beast who can go forward with solid forward craft to hit the scoreboard.
And Elijah Tsatas (four games) can explode from a stoppage.
But the Dons still need Jake Stringer as a mid-forward game-breaker to be at their best with hopes Archie Perkins can one day be a similar type of player.
Duursma arrives on a four-year deal to lock away one wing with Martin on the other, and it allows Sam Durham to play some inside mid as well as in attack.
Essendon hopes his game-winning last term playing forward in the Dreamtime match is the prototype for his 2024.
The defence finally has a Mick Martin-style gorilla to wrestle and scrap and claw at his opponent in McKay, with Jordan Ridley, Jayden Laverde and Jake Kelly providing aerial cover and Andy McGrath and Mason Redman the defensive run.
Former wingman Cox, the rising star favourite in round 17 of his debut season, played as an attacking defender against Collingwood in round 24 with five intercept possessions and that seems the way forward for 2024.
Up forward Kyle Langford (51 goals) emerged as an elite marking target while 2022 best-and-fairest winner Peter Wright kicked 19 goals in 10 games post-shoulder reco.
Stringer disappointed â 21 goals in 17 games, while Perkins has huge admirers within the club but kicked only 18 goals in 23 matches and was rated poor for F50 pressure.
When the Dons run and gun â as they did for three quarters on Anzac Day â they are intoxicating.
But despite gains with their game style the full-ground defence left plenty to be desired and a percentage of 89.7 per cent didnât lie.
Only Hawthorn, West Coast and North Melbourne gave up more points.
DRAFT STRATEGY
Essendonâs capacity to keep an excellent draft hand was a huge win given its list inclusions, with its draft hand starting at picks 9, 31, 35 with later picks 61 and 88.
The Dons will take only three draft picks and play with 38 primary listed players and four rookies after upgrading Kaine Baldwin.
Clubs continue to ask Essendon and Geelong (pick 8) if they want to trade for multiple picks slightly later in the national draft.
So the Dons could trade nine and shuffle back to 12 (Sydney), 13 (St Kilda) or 14 (Adelaide) but also secure an extra early pick.
Would Adelaide trade 14 and 20 for Essendonâs nine? Quite likely.
The Dons could take 14, 20 and 31 then trade 35 into next yearâs draft to strengthen their 2024 hand.
If they keep pick nine players likely to be available around the Dons pick if they hold it include powerful 193cm forward Nate Caddy, 198cm key defender Connor OâSullivan, 186cm wingman Darcy Wilson and 184cm midfielder Caleb Windsor.
Exciting pressure forward Jayden Davey remains the unwrapped Christmas present, fit to play off a second knee reconstruction as early as round 4 last year but instead given the full year to build confidence in his body.
WHOâS UNDER THE PUMP
Jake Stringer looked lame across his 17-game season, told to bide his time before a senior return in round 3 then perplexingly played as a sub who couldnât survive 120 minutes against GWS in round 23 because of a foot issue.
He eventually needed surgery for the plantar fascia issue and should have had it earlier.
Essendon could complain fans and media are too harsh on Stringer, who comes out of contract in 2024.
But in 2021 he averaged 2.2 goals a game and 3.2 centre square clearances.
So we judge him by his best and hope he can get back there next year, and given it is a contract year you can bet he will be at his best.
TRADE TARGETS FOR 2025
Essendon has spent years hoping Ben King might move south and had a big crack at Harry McKay before he re-signed last year. They have 12 months to assess the Langford-Jones-Wright trio before they decide whether to launch again.
For the first time in a long time they donât desperately need a key defender, so can bide their time aware they still have vast cap space if they find a player of need.
Essendon has taken enough high picks (Tsatas at pick 5), Hobbs (13), Cox (8), Perkins (9) and Reid (10) in the past three seasons that they can justify giving away a first-rounder again.
Essendon met with North Melbourneâs Tarryn Thomas this trade period and had a solid crack at Cam Zurhaar previously, who is now a free agent.
Zurhaar probably would have moved to Essendon if they hadnât sacked Ben Rutten to highlight their instability.
If Gresham is worth nearly $800,000 a year Zurhaar will get paid more than him given his tackling pressure, capacity to kick multiple goals (34 goals in 2022) and centre square presence.
Ben McKayâs front-ended six-year deal sees his salary hit $1.4-$1.5 million in the first year, which is a very sexy figure.
But lost in the detail is that in the final three years of his deal he is on stuff-all.
If you donât bank cap space you lose it so itâs just creative accounting.
CAP SPACE
The Dons would have ponied up as much as $2.4 million for their quartet of acquisitions but had $3 million a year of cap space even before the new AFL collective bargaining agreement.
But the new CBA â which increases the salary cap 30 per cent by 2025 â means the Dons still have a war chest for acquisitions as they scan next yearâs free agency market.
The Dons are firm in their belief that without a northern-states academy, free agency remains a weapon they must use to keep competitive.
Dylan Shielâs $800,000-a-season contract expires this year while Stringer hasnât been paid what he might have under an incentive-laden deal.
He is very likely to wait until deep into the season to show the Dons what he is worth as he attempts to secure the last big deal of his career but has worked his butt off over the off-season to give himself the best chance.
PREMIERSHIP WINDOW
The premiership drought is 23 years and the finals winning drought is 19 seasons.
So letâs not get ahead of ourselves.
But the Dons have a coach who isnât getting sacked any time soon and the ASADA scandal is well behind the club.
In other words, it finally has the stability with the Brad Scott-Craig Vozzo-David Barham leadership team to build towards that elusive finals victory. Finals a chance in 2024 but flag window opens from 2025.
AFL PLAYER RATINGS TOP 100 IN 2023
Zach Merrett (9th), Darcy Parish (43rd), Nic Martin (63rd), Mason Redman (85th), Jordan Ridley (98th).
TRADE BAIT
Harrison Jones signed a one-year deal on modest money so if he can finally showcase his potential he gives suitors and Essendon good reason to reward him.
Sam Durham is also out of contract so it would be smart business to sign him up over summer but with enough incentives that he can get paid for a monster year.
Cox and Nick Hind are uncontracted, while Tsatas hasnât signed on past his initial two-year extension.
What becomes of the uncontracted Shiel, who nearly moved to St Kilda but after foot and knee surgeries now faces a task over summer to get into elite shape?
Andy McGrath is fiercely loyal and an excellent leader, having helped marshal the troops for a fortnight-long American training camp after last yearâs Ibiza adventure.
How does new list boss Matt Rosa quantify his price given the No. 1 overall pick plays half back as a sturdy, reliable 23-possession-a-game free agent?
He is the glue of this club and you donât lose a player of his character over a contract squabble.
16 Likes
Usually good from John Ralph.
1 Like
â â â â off Ralph you stain of a journalist
My goodness people get triggered by the 7,000 days thing.
Itâs pretty bloody remarkable. I like the club being reminded how irrelevant we are at every opportunity.
2 Likes
Remember when getting McKay meant that we wouldnât be able to go after anyone next year lol
2 Likes
Yeah good article by Ralph.
You would have to think weâre a red hot chance at getting Zurhaar. Reckon we will bring him in and phase out Stringer.
Ben King or Todd Marshall will no doubt get big offers from us. The former being the dream, but I have a funny feeling that he may go to Collingwood.
Unless we start seeing big signs from Menzie, Tex & J.Davey, Iâd be shocked if weâre not targeting some elite pressure forwards as itâs a massive list issue.
3 Likes
Yes we should be but any ideas who would be available ?
In terms of FA thereâs not much available. Tyson Stengle is one. In regards to smaller forwards there is also Ben Ainsworth but he is more a HFF up the field work horse which we already have.
Maurice Rioli Jnr out of contract and seemed a bit disgruntled at one point this year.
absolutely not. Shiel is david zaharakis with worse kicking and with a bigger aversion to the contest. Setterfield is a point of difference.
2 Likes
Ok. Go back and read their posts.
The McGrath one is curly. Paid overs when we had cap space and did not live up to expectations. Very similar to Fantasia, Daniher, Stringer, Shiel and Saad.
I like him and think if he had been left in backline and used as required as a defensive midfielder (when need to shutdown a gun player from opposition), would not be in this position. Needs a kpi focussed contract to stay and remain on good coin.
I donât know⌠I think many thought you couldnât go wrong with eitherâŚ
8 Likes
Nice one.
Nicest bloke in AFL, surprised Dodoro didnât grab him.
1 Like
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
1 Like
We knew that was happening as heâd reached the âterm limitâ for players on the rookie list.
1 Like
Why Brad Scott finally has depth and selection pressure at the Hangar
Heppell or Cox? Caldwell or Hobbs? Setterfield or Tsatas? The Dons finally have a chance to present an elite best 23 every week. Hereâs their best side and seven signs theyâll be a serious team by Rd 6.
Jon RalphANALYSIS
5 min read
November 21, 2023 - 5:10PM
News Corp Australia Sports Newsroom
AFL: The first night of the 2023 AFL draft came with high emotions and thrilling scenes.
Brad Scott can finally sweep aside the list cloggers and project players.
As he shifts the magnets on his whiteboard to assess his round 1 side the influx of new talent at Essendon guarantees absolutely nothing.
A 7000-day finals winning drought should be the ultimate reminder after so many rebuilds, rejigs, post-ASADA list retools and false dawns.
But whether Adrian Dodoro is the messiah or just a naughty boy, he at least has given his coach options in this yearâs trade, free agency and draft period.
On Monday night 193cm power forward Nate Caddy arrived via the draft, joining Ben McKay (North Melbourne), Xavier Duursma (Port Adelaide), Jade Gresham (St Kilda) and Todd Goldstein (North Melbourne) as Essendonâs new faces.
All will hope to be in Essendonâs round 1 team next year along with players who missed the round 24 slaughter against Collingwood.
They include Jake Stringer (foot), Harrison Jones (back, ankle), Zach Reid (back), Dylan Shiel (foot, ankle, knee), Jordan Ridley (quad), Matt Guelfi (hamstring).
Gone from that round 24 team are Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti (retired), Andrew Phillips (retired), Will Snelling (delisted) and Brandon Zerk-Thatcher (traded).
So the round 1 team will be vastly different, but will it be significantly improved?
What attempting to find Essendonâs best 23 on paper does is illustrate that the Dons finally have depth.
Not just across the squad but in multiple positions of need.
Essendon not only has its big key full back (McKay) and athletic interceptor (Ridley), it will have a frantic battle between Jake Kelly, Jayden Laverde and Kaine Baldwin to fill the third defensive post.
If Nik Cox wants to play the aggressive rebounding role he was trialled in for the round 24 Collingwood clash, he might have to displace former captain Dyson Heppell.
If Jake Stringer is fit, he plays.
But suddenly Essendon has Langford, Stringer, Gresham, Sam Durham and Archie Perkins as dangerous half-forwards who can be thrown into the centre square.
And if Nick Bryan wants to play in round 1 - with Brad Scott keen to play two rucks all of next year - he needs to get past an All Australian in Todd Goldstein with the most hit-outs in AFL history.
Dons fans might quibble, but there isnât room in this team for Cox, Elijah Tsatas, Nick Hind, Matt Guelfi or Will Setterfield, with Caddy only squeezed in as the sub.
EVEN SIGNS ESSENDON WILL BE A SERIOUS TEAM BY ROUND 6 NEXT YEAR
1. Nate Caddy wonât be able to find a spot in the round 1 best 22.
Letâs hope he is Essendonâs new great white hope.
Letâs hope he has a massive summer to knock down the selection door.
But his selection at pick 10 on Monday night should light a spark under Perkins, Stringer, Gresham, not to mention Tex Wanganeen, Matt Guelfi and the Davey twins.
Stringer, Perkins, Wright and Langford are locks, and Duursmaâs acquisition means the Dons want to push Durham to half forward with some midfield time.
Caddy averaged 16 possessions and 2.8 goals in nine Coates League games but if he plays round 1 he must deserve it instead of being handed a game on promise.
Surely Essendon is past that phase of its development.
2. Xavier Duursma develops a weapon as Essendonâs new wingman.
Duursma has what it takes to be an excellent AFL footballer.
He runs harder than anyone, he is strong overhead, he kicks the ball well.
But since his breakout 20-game debut season heâs played 15, 11, 11 and 16 games kicking seven, three, six, and six goals.
Scott needs to decide if he is an elite defensive runner like Carltonâs Blake Acres, who averaged 4.7 intercept possessions playing such a key finals role helping his back six AND kicking 10 goals across the year.
Is he an offensive weapon like Josh Daicos - 16 goals, 439 metres gained, plus 3.2 intercept possessions this year?
On the opposite wing Martin had a nice blend - 17 goals, 3.5 intercept possessions, 2.7 inside 50s.
Right now Duursma isnât elite at anything - he has never averaged more than 20 touches or 300 meres gained - but a defined role under Scott can help him out.
3. Nik Cox has to have forced an Essendon mainstay out of the side.
Cox arrived as an elite kick on both sides who could play anywhere and while his debut season was brilliant he still only averaged 13 possessions and was the unused sub in the clubâs final two matches of 2021.
With the wings settled the Dons hope he can play half back as a defender who uses his size to mark and instantly turn defence into attack.
Dyson Heppellâs year just kept getting better after a rocky start_ above average in intercepts, disposals, kicking and intercept marks - so can he keep up that form to ward off the kids who want to take his spot?
Given Redman, McKay, McGrath and Ridley are locks, Cox must force Scott into some difficult selection decisions.
4. Essendon finds one over summer.
The clubâs value picks have been spectacular - mid-season picks Durham and Martin, Wright for a future fourth-rounder - so can one of the Davey boys break out?
Jayden Davey is coming off two knee recos but is a genuine fall-of-the-ball crumber who was ready very early in 2023 but instead rehabbed his body all season.
Will Snelling is gone, Jye Menzie broke out in 2023 (23 goals) and Matt Guelfi is a goal-a-game forward with above-average pressure (2.8 tackles a game in 2023) but can Jayden or brother Alwyn take a big step over summer?
5. Nick Bryan trumps Todd Goldstein.
Sam Draper has a heap of rehab ahead of him after groin surgery, but the Dons hope he will be ready by round 1.
Who will play alongside him?
Coaches get frustrated at Goldstein who at times has been keener to amass possessions as a corridor option than a genuine down-the-line marking target with packs jumping on his head.
But they always play him because heâs so consistent and racks up possessions and hitouts to advantage (9.8 a game this year).
Can Bryan realise his potential quickly enough to displace Goldstein?
The glass-half-full theory is that this year in eight games the 22-year-old was elite for hitouts and hitouts to advantage and won more contested possessions (4.8 a game) than uncontested (3.9).
He has a long way to go to be that second ruckman but it will be fun watching the battle over summer.
6. Kyle Langford proves he isnât a one-hit wonder.
Langford had to stand up in 2023 because no one else was there to help.
With Wright injured, Stringer lame and Guelfi often injured he emerged as a star with 51 goals, with daylight second then surprise packet Jye Menzie next best.
Can Wright and Langford coexist in the same team as dominant forwards both kicking 50 goals?
The signs after Wrightâs return were good - in 10 games together Langford kicked five goals three times in a row.
In one of those games against Sydney Langford kicked five and Wright four.
But both only averaged one contested mark a game, so the Dons donât really have a pack-crasher in the Tom Lynch or Max King mould.
7. Essendon starts bashing up opposition midfields.
In the first six weeks they face off against some up-and-coming and elite midfields - Hawthorn, Sydney and St Kilda, then Port Adelaide, the Dogs and Adelaide.
Scott is spoiled for choice if everyone stays fit - Draper, Merrett, Darcy Parish, Shiel, Caldwell, Setterfield, Ben Hobbs, Tsatas.
Tsatas and Shiel can explode from the stoppage and Merrett kills you with his disposal.
But where is Essendonâs point of difference with its midfield? Itâs up to Scott to find one.
Finally he has strong-bodied mids like Setterfield, Caldwell and Hobbs who can impose themselves at the contest.
Right now their pace comes from whipping boy Dylan Shiel and while Tsatas will succeed him he too needs to show he can hit targets while on the fly.
Essendon needs a midfield identity. Can Scott carve one out
4 Likes
Do we have a rookie pick? Or just Category B options?