I looked up the 2026 indicative draft order (below) but yeah just seen that it’s based on LAST YEAR’S ladder so yeah, probably not terribly accurate 
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good! you had me nervous for a second!
They would have their natural selection and GC pick so they have pick 14 and 15 as it stands.
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I think Melbourne are going down the St Kilda path.
Where they don’t want to bottom out too heavily and are hoping they can stay around mid ladder long enough to add some players through free agency and make a push.
It could work for one of them. But it’s unlikely.
And neither team is yet to be ‘targeted’ and schemed against to try and force them into uncomfortable positions. When that happens (which it does to every team a year after they have taken a big step) is when they need to search for better answers or good recruiting because they’ve just spent half a decade being in that awkward mid ladder spot where they aren’t quite getting top end talent and you’re internal improvement has pretty much topped out.
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I agree with your “gone for sure” players, but think we’ll have greater turnover than that.
We’re currently +1 on the list due to Setterfield replacing Martin. We’ll go to +2 when we take a mid-season draftee next week. With Setterfield surely going, that leaves us with 4 list spots from the “gone for sure” list, presuming we hang on to our mid-season draftee in 2027.
I’d guess they’ll plan to bring in around 5-6 kids given Tasmania’s impact on next year’s pool, potentially we’ll bring in a cheap trade target or free agent, and we often like to leave an opening for an SSP selection. That probably means we need about 7 list spots, which would mean that 3 more go (or at least 2).
Of the out of contract players, you’d expect Jayden Nguyen to get a contract given his Cat B status – that only really changes if Blake Justice becomes a rookie candidate. I’d guess Jayden’s shown enough regardless. Prior looks likely for a new deal, and so does Perkins if he maintains his form from the last couple of games. Nik Cox seems the most likely departure, and then you’ve got Edwards, El-Hawli, Gerreyn and Unwin battling it out for ~2 spots – with Edwards and El-Hawli it probably depends on whether they can be consistent members of the team in the second half of the year, and Gerreyn and Unwin need to show more AFL traits. Unwin’s in a tough spot with his injury – it wouldn’t surprise me if he ended up being delisted and competing for an SSP spot.
There’s also the possibility that we could trade out a contracted senior player, but finding a buyer might be tough.
Good on Rooey, about time someone said something sensible and shut these overpaid opinionated nuffies down.
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Ahhh yep, forgot about the MSD spot & Setterfield being a placeholder.
Agree on that gone for sure list, but also would add to that:
Cox - Still doesn’t have a set position he calls his own.
Perkins - I get the feeling he will want to pursue other opportunities. And I think the club would be amenable to that.
Edwards - I like him, but not sure he has enough tricks to be a consistent AFL player. Probably would stay if Perkins and/or Langford depart.
Jones - What a farce giving him a 2-year deal. I’d pay him out and free up the extra list spot.
Langford - Slow as treacle and now can’t kick goals. There would be interest from other teams. See what you can get.
Ridley - If he was considering his future at the end of last season, he will definitely want a fresh start now. Can’t stay on the park so no use for us.
Redman - Frustrating player. Throw his name up and see if anyone bites. Might be interest from Port, especially if Bergman looks to come back to Vic.
Parish - Might be a good time to send him out. If he plays 20+ games we can say he’s back playing and his injury concerns are a thing of the past. Just not what we need in the midfield.
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Your right, I’m out a year on Ryder. The problem with the saga, in respect of that 2014 final is that:
a) we lost the chance to have positive momentum. At the end of 2012 we’d lured Goddard. If we’d played, let alone won, some finals in 2013 maybe we recruit another good player.
b) We lost the opportunity to have more finals experience. If we play more finals in 2013, we might be better prepared for the final in 2014.
c) obviously we lost the draft picks in 2013 that might have added another good youngster or a trade
So, with the injuries we had who plays on Brown in this scenario, that does better than Steinberg did?
Nice strawman. I didn’t say the 2012 list was good enough to win a premiership. I certainly didn’t say they were definitely destined to win a premiership.
I said the 2012 list was “tracking well”. That it was well positioned to be competitive over the next 3-4 years. And that the saga torpedoed those plans. Just pushing back on this idea that the list has never looked any good, never been coming together. When the reality is pre-saga we’d actually built a pretty good base.
Does that mean Dodorro and/or the club could have taken the next step? Who knows. Plenty of teams get close but no cigar. But this idea we’ve been going nowhere for 20 years isn’t true. We were improving, then the saga set in almost 15 years of stagnant rot. How much of that was directly attributable to the saga is certainly debatable, but it clearly started the process.
Cox is definitely in the conversation on who goes. I would also note that Setterfield is currently filling Martin’s spot, so if he’s amongst those going we have one less open list spot (5 under your proposed list above).
I would hope, but have no expectation, that the club would consider trading other senior players.
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We brought in Sharp, Robey, Farrow last year and only lost Hobbs then. Hell, we don’t “have room” for Tsatas at the moment, and Setterfield is playing seconds and Sharp is injured.
If we added Barker and Justice I think we’d be fine, with Bewick next year.
We could delist them all at the end of the year and the salary cap wouldn’t have a problem. Our issue with the cap isn’t too little, its what to do with what we’ve got.
Its an absolute dumpster fire at the moment, which should mean its easier it jettison said players. Why stress about losing senior players when in reality it cant get much worse? At best they’ve helped us win one game this season. Keeping them will only prolong the misery.
There are some I’d still be keen to retain because I believe they have the right character (eg: Caldwell) and stomach for the fight. But the vast majority simply do not perform at a consistently high level, and/or provide next to no leadership to the young players.
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Just something that I’m discussing in the match-thread. Tonight we will only be playing six players aged 21 or less. Because we’ll have nobody aged 22 or 23 in the team, effectively we have only six players aged less than 24 playing tonight.
Brisbane has Ashcroft x2, Lohman, Morris, Wilmott, Fletcher definitely playing and will be playing a minimum of 2 of Marshall, Zakostelsky, Brain, Tunstill and McLachlan. All under 24. So somewhere between 8 and 11 of Brisbane’s side will be 24 or under. The premiers will have between 2 and 5 more players aged under 24 in their team than we will.
Now, I know injuries impact our position a bit as guys like Kako and Sharp would be playing if available, and others might be like Johnson or Clarke. But, it starkly paints the gap we have to fill. As promising as Sharp and Robey are, will they be better than the Ashcroft’s and Fletcher? Will Caddy or May be better than Morris? Sure, Kako isn’t playing for us, but either is Annable for Brisbane.
The gap between us and them is huge. The idea this rebuild is “done” that is being spruiked by the club is so ridiculously wrong it is hard to grasp. It would require our players aged 24 and over to suddenly jump up to the level of Brisbane’s senior players. Is the club that stupid, think we’re that stupid, or just playing to the media? The reality is that we need multiple more players with the potential to be amongst the top in the league, which means 3+ years in the bottom 3. There is no way that Merrett is playing finals with us again, or possibly anyone else aged over 28. Which means we should be aggressively moving those guys on for picks to give us more shots in the draft. Instead we’re grasping those players to us like Scrooge with gold.
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Why did you stop at 24?
Oh yeah - Reid, Durham, Bryan, Perkins, Prior are all 24.
Plus Edwards and Blakiston with less than 30 games which would have some upside with more experience.
There’s a gap in senior talent. We’ll naturally get another two years of top end draft talent to boost the juniors further. We’ll get at least two more this year. Plus Bewick. Plus whatever we can scrounge for Merrett, Ridley and co.
We’ve had pretty much one of the youngest and bottom 4 inexperienced lists every year since 2020; aside from one season under Scott.
I think we need to move on some of our senior players that block opportunities for the likes of Robey and co but at the same time get more reliable vets in to play around the youngsters and in the VFL. A heap of them. Get some adults in the room. Get our list profile up around 10th for experience.
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I stopped at 24 because originally I was just doing 21 and pointing out that for all the talk of youth in the match-day thread, we only had 6 guys under 21. I then noticed we didn’t have anyone 22 or 23. And mentioned that. I then thought, what are the premiers doing, and started talking about that.
But more realistically, part of it would be that 24 is really starting to hit mid-range of career category. Can we really call anyone 24 “young”? Inexperienced, sure (for us with Bryan, Reid, Edwards, Blackiston). These are players who should be starting their prime years.
I think if you look at that 24-26 year group, it gets even worse. Only Durham, Martin, Duursma and Caldwell are locks to be AFL quality. Four players. And some more possibilities, varying from Bryan & Perkins (very likely) to Prior and Edwards (‘average’ and ‘maybe’ respectively). You say 2 years more of good picks, but in four years those players should be our core. It is nowhere near it.
We’re a lot more than 2 years of bad results off.
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We need a few more Archie Roberts types where you snag a gem with a pick in the 50s, or using the MSD and SSP to get the likes of a Durham, Martin, May, etc in. We have a good track record there and the eye for talent under Rosa has been good to date in his short time in the role. That must continue alongside nailing those early picks to get blue-chip elite young talent in. Then its all about development.
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Yeah we also delisted Shiel as well. Im all for moving them on but realistically I see them staggering it so one or two will probably have another contract.
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I agree that there’s no way the rebuild is over. Our chances of attracting high value talent from other clubs this year is very low. Realistically we’re going to have another large haul of young players come onto our list next year, and some more mature players moving out. We still have a bunch of positional areas where need to find promising young talent – this year’s draft is crucial (as is securing Koby Bewick next year).
That said, at the end of 2028, Caddy and Roberts will be 5 years in, Kako 4, Robey, Farrow and Sharp 3. If those players are as good as we hope, we could click pretty quickly. We’ve seen teams like Hawthorn and Brisbane rise up the ladder pretty quickly in the past.
Critical to that will be:
- The guys on our list currently between 21 and 26. Guys like Martin, Durham Caldwell, Duursma, Reid, Perkins and May have to keep improving and contributing. We know they won’t be the stars, but they’re very necessary depth.
- Bringing in more players from others clubs from 2027 onwards. Hawthorn managed to bring in 6 best 23 players over 3 years from other clubs (Battle, Barrass, Ginnivan, D’Ambrosio, Chol, Meek). Collingwood built their 2023 premiership side with a lot of recycled talent as well.
Overall, what’s most important for our rebuild is that we draft a core group of star players between 2023 and 2027. I’m not that concerned that a larger percentage of our side this round isn’t under 24 (particularly given the injuries we have at the moment) if it looks like we have star power among that group. Right now, signs are promising – Caddy’s on track to kick 40+ goals, Archie Roberts leads the league for disposals, Sully Robey just had 22 touches and kicked 2 goals in his 6th game against a top 2 side. Of course other sides have talent too, but if we’ve got a decent core, that gives us a chance.
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Yep and this is why I want us to be aggressive in the FA space.
We already have a massive salary cap and moving more senior players on only adds to that, when we’re already lean in that 26yo (Zac Bailey) demo.