You missed covid?
If there is a genuine end to the bull market, a bear is a bit ■■■■.
Trying to work out when to buy into equities becomes harder not easy.
And you gotta be prepared to wear losses.
Sorta yes, sorta no. Didnt really buy too much during covid aside from some bank and speccy helium minor stocks that have since done very well, but didnt put too much in as it was all too unknown and didnt fit my risk profile.
I think ive come to realise that im a relatively boring investor who doesnt have much of an issue holding some losses if theyre in high quality companies that I envisage holding for the long term.
Ive mentally put aside a medium sized lump of money to invest intermittently over the next 2-3 years while the market seems to be in a bit of a rut. Fortunately I am in a position where I dont believe I will need to sell them for financial reasons, so can just put it aside and forget about it.
Btw I’m a terrible investor and financially not that well off as I really should be.
Don’t take any advice I put on this site. If I make a post just take it on as a different opinion.
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So on 26/5, guess who became a substantial holder in PSC? Nup, not Goldman Sachs, no way.
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PSC That didnt crash either.
Im still a fair bit up on SYA, but was miles ahead, should have taken some profits I guess, and its only on paper. I’m less inclined to go after explorers now, and more into ones that are producing or closer to production. Lithium had risen a fair bit so was probably due for some pull back. But yeh feels like dirty tricks from Goldman Sachs.
Good report on Talga the other day that they have increased their graphite resource.
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Someone mentioned it the other week but keeping a keen eye on CHN.
Recent cap raise of $100M @ $6 per share & now trading at $5.70 looks like a little discount to me. Hoping to see a base form before I pull the trigger. Dyor.
Interest rate rises…so over the past two months, the RBA has gone from 0.10% to 0.85%.
A week ago, I looked at the market outlook, and it showed an expected peak rate of 3.375%:
I check it at the end of today, and the peak rate has increased to 3.935%…since the onset of the Ukraine invasion, whenever I sporadically think to check on this chart, I find it’s taken a nasty jump up:
When I worked on home loans (15-20 years ago), the stress testing was for +2% of rate increases…but I believe that serviceability buffer test has been increased to +3% these days…but here we have the market forecasting +3.835% of increases over a period of about 12 months…I get an uneasy feeling about what is to come.
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Apparently Goldman Sachs has declared that the continued rise of lithium stocks is over.
Which says to me that Goldman Sachs have a great interest in seeing the prices drop, presumably so they can get their clients much further into the lithium market.
I’m not calling Goldman Sachs a bunch of crooks…well, not specifically…but they are.
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Honey - we’ve lost our life savings after i followed the advice of a poster on Blitz. He was spot on about playing Rish in the midfield so I followed his lead and invested our nest egg.
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All battery metal stocks taken a hit. Plus you have interest rates rising which doesnt help etc.
hard to predict the next few months, think long term they should be ok though, who knows.
As someone who wants to buy and sell a house in 6-12 months, is there any unsolicited advice you’d give?
I’ve never owned a house…I don’t think I can say anything insightful about the property market.
What I am keeping an eye on, for my world view, is energy. Here is something I wrote in this thread, at the end of January:
Back then, I think the RBA was still quite sanguine about the situation (I was too)…they were still waiting to SEE persistent inflation.
Then Putin invaded Ukraine (not something I could have imagined!), the oil price step-changed upwards, and the RBA went SHHEEETTT we were waiting for inflation, and now it’s suddenly everywhere, because energy is embedded in just about everything.
Back on property…I don’t think many home owners are aware of how high rates COULD go. There were many news pieces this week regarding the pain caused by the lift to 0.85%…those rate curves that I posted are what the ‘smart money’ think, and it’s now >3.5%…I’ll accept their forecast as being infinitely more wise than me.
If I was to construct an unemotional game plan, I might buy when the dashed line (current rates) approaches the peak of the blue columns. That means we are approaching peak home loan discomfort.
Lastly…if the Ukraine war suddenly concluded, and the energy deficit eased, I think inflation expectations would come down globally, interest rate expectations would come down (the blue columns would drop down significantly), and I think it would be a signal to immediately buy property/shares/whatever.
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I suggest we extend the 3 day weekend into a much longer holiday…because it looks like the next market open is going to be brutal:
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Can confirm, it’s brutal
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ASX 200 down 5.1% / 351pts.
And getting worse by the minute.
Honestly, I think the war is closer to ending than what mainstream media are telling us. Russia will win, but I think the US will be ■■■■■■ for a while and keep the sanctions going, so we might have a depression 
My buy alert for WBC went off under $19.50, not sure now though…
Likely a 30% global shortage in food supply hitting later in the year. Combination of Ukraine war, fertiliser shortage, flooding and weather events wiping out crops in USA, Canada, China and Australia. That will push food prices through the roof. Previous 10% shortage doubled grain prices.
As heartless as it feels, there’s ways to play that for profit.
GNC?
Maybe. Dunno if the grain shipping companies will get the upside. Commodity traders have more exposure to this stuff is my feel.
I don’t have a specific buy recommendation, but this will be one of the largest global financial roller coasters of our lives. Definitely start thinking of what it means, what the upside areas are and what the risks are.
