If he doesn’t play games this year then he’s going to come under extreme pressure from all angles. I’m backing him in to get the required level.
There are three attributes that he has that our side needs in the backline. Physical presence, elite kicking over any distance and ability in the air as well as on ground.
Only Hurley provides all three of those in one package and for me that’s not good enough. We have a few others that’s are one or two of those but may have other flaws.
We really need another elite defender. Francis is the only other guy on our list with that potential in my opinion.
Given that selecting 7 backs is usual ( for rotations, ours and theirs, & injury cover I see Bags, Gleeson, McKenna and Saad as definites.
Hurley & Ambrose are also constants, especially Paddy’s aerobic capacity for mobile key forwards.
So Hartley I’d play against Hawkins, against GWS if they go with a Lobbe replacement forward, maybe Adelaide, and possibly Melbourne (who may go three large talls this year).
Happy to replace him with Francis against more mobile two or three man forward lines - St Kilda, Carlton, Brissie, Weagles, etc,
And against the Swine - all their talls bar Tippett are mobile, and Tippetts the obvious Hartley match up.
Against midget sides like Richmond 3 talls is too many, though this is where Francis has genuine swingman potential to go forward.
Goddard used to be able to do this, but no more.
Much as I’ve rated BJ’s contribution over the years I think he’s the gap filler this year - use him sparingly to plug different spots on match day, and will need to be rested like Kelly was if we’re to get the most out of him.
Yeah midfield is still an issue, but we should be improving there
We’ll be adding Smith and McGrath into the rotation (and maybe Stringer) for the loss of Watson. We should get a bit more from Parish (3rd year now), Langford and Laverde. I’m also expecting that Heppell will be back to his best next year.
Colyer and Myers will likely get squeezed out which isn’t a bad thing.
I expect we will be 10-15% better through there next year.
I’m not sure about this, I think it wouldn’t be a bad thing if our midfield depth was tested. The more we find out about the younger tier the better IMO.
One thing that you’ve picked up your post, that most seem to ignore, regarding Francis is physical presence - I want him in the team because of his ‘attack on the ball’ - He is ferocious around the ball and a cut above nearly everyone on the list.
I think we’ll roll with 3 talls back, but Francis to take Ambrose or Hartleys spot. Add the inclusion of Saad, we should be better on the rebound and more adaptable. We’ll see.
I have Smith through the midfield.
.(that’s a midget midfield but anyways)
B. Baguely,Hurley,Saad
HB McKenna,Ambrose,Gleeson
C. McGrath,Smith,Zaharakis
HF Stringer,Daniher,Stewart
F Fantasia,Hooker, Walla
R Bellchambers,Zmerrett,Heppell
I/C Langford,Parish,Goddard,Begley
Hartley comes in on the big forwards.
Assumes Stringer back to his best.(might take longer than realised)
We have a good depth of talent
I think only 3/4s of the side picks itself.
And what I really like is I am feeling good about is we can win games being able to cover big outs.
Really only talking about one KPD - agree that backline stability is very important.
A limited number of teams do this - you have to have a number of quality talls which rules many sides out - they don’t have a choice.
In answer to your question, the Eagles and Adelaide have a tendency to do it - choosing an extra tall for certain games.
The Swans did it with Allir when they had Teddy & Grundy, before Allir’s fall from grace.
Geelong and Melbourne also shuffle their key backs, but by sending Taylor & MacDonald (either) forward and dropping a forward to accommodate the structural change.
In an ideal world maybe you wouldn’t do this Hartley would improve his tank and rebound or Francis would bulk up to allow him to outbody big forwards but things are still developing.